|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
SnG theory question
Blinds are 100/200 no ante
Player 1 has 1000 and is UTG Player 2 has 1000 and is UTG +1 Player 3 has 7500 and is SB. Player 4 has 4000 and is BB. Players 1 and 2 fold. Player 3 moves in with A3d and player 4 knows he has this hand. Is it pos EV for player 4 to call with KK? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SnG theory question
you need to go look up the definition of "theory"
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SnG theory question
Well, theoretically if you knew he had this hand, it would be -EV to call. Aces are still good though [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SnG theory question
I'm a total newbie, but I'll take a stab at this...
If only first place paid, and your chance of winning is the same as your percentage of chips... if you fold, you have 4000/13500 = ~ 30% chance of winning. if you call, you have .7 * ( 8000/13500) = 41% chance. (since KK has a 70% chance of holding up) I'd need to think about it more to factor in a realistic payout structure, but sounds like a call to me... |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SnG theory question
the problem being that 1-3 pay, not just first...and if u call and lose here u are out and don't get money...with these chip stacks, your equity has to be around 30% of the pot
u can't get higher than 50%...so u can't gain nearly as much as u lose (all 30%)...so u need to win a huge portion of the time, which kk doesnt against a3...if u didn't see his hand, u could call and if u saw it was kx, qx, pp etc then u could...but against ax, this is a fold |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SnG theory question
MM,
This is a very good (and basic) ICM exercise if you've never learned to use it before. Take a stab at it (there are pointers on how to use it in the FAQ) and post your results - someone will help if you get stuck. |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SnG theory question
Just tried icm for the first time. Here is what i got.
If you fold, you have 28.8% of the prize pool. If you call - you lose 32.9% of the time and have 0% of the prize pool or you win 67.1% and have 59.2% of the prize pool. .32 * 0 + 67.1 * 59.2 = 39.7% If you fold you will usually have 28.8 percent of the prize pool. If you call you will usually have 39.7 percent of the prize pool, making this call easy. Did i do this right? Edited to add : i didn't do anything with the event of a split pot. The calcualtor i used didn't give me the % of that happening |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SnG theory question
[ QUOTE ]
or you win 67.1% and have 59.2% of the prize pool. [/ QUOTE ] I would assume this has a normal 5 3 2 payout structure in which case you can never exceed 50% of the prize pool. Pokerscott |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SnG theory question
did u use an icm calculator? u can't have >50% of the prize pool equity in a 50/30/20 payout structure
plug the stack sizes into an icm calculator (one is linked in an earlier post in this thread, or google it) |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SnG theory question
[ QUOTE ]
Blinds are 100/200 no ante Player 1 has 1000 and is UTG Player 2 has 1000 and is UTG +1 Player 3 has 7500 and is SB. Player 4 has 4000 and is BB. Players 1 and 2 fold. Player 3 moves in with A3d and player 4 knows he has this hand. Is it pos EV for player 4 to call with KK? [/ QUOTE ] Ok, this is the first I've heard of ICM, so even though this may be a trivial problem, I'd like someone to confirm that I'm thinking about this correctly: Assuming 50/30/20 payout structure, Assuming the chip values are before blinds were posted, Using http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html because it comes up first in google [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Folding gives: player 3: t7700, 40% EV player 4: t3800, 31% EV Call+win gives: player 3: t3700, 31% EV player 4: t8000, 40% EV Call+lose gives: player 4: 0% EV. KK(non-diamond) vs A3d wins 67% of the time so, the EV for calling is: 0.67 * .40 + 0.33 * 0 = .27 So, since this is less than the .31 EV folding gives us, we conclude that calling is -EV. Is that basically how ICM is applied? And what about player 3... what if this were played face up. If player 3 knows that its -EV for player 4 to call, is it +EV to move all-in? I guess it depends if player 3 knows that player 4 knows its -EV to call... |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|