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#1
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Poker Stars PF all-ins %
I play alot on pokerstars and people are always saying there are to many suck outs. (For example, AJo vs A6o is about 27% to 73% but it seems on PS its about 40% to 60%) At first I thought a site that big would be accurate. The more I play, however, the more I think the odds are skewed. Im not just saying this out of frustration or anything, I have really thought about this logically and it seems there may be a curve. Has anyone ever done any studies about this? Has anyone ever written down several all ins and kept records of the winners? Am I crazy?
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#2
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Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %
Variance happens.
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#3
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Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %
i was going to give you an exercise, but decided to do it myself.
1 deck of cards, pencil, paper removed (hand #1) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] & (hand #2) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] i turned over 5 cards, noted the winner - shuffled, and repeated 25 times. here are the results: 1 - H1 2 - H1 3 - H2 4 - H2 5 - H2 6 - H2 7 - H1 8 - H1 9 - H2 (straight flush!!!!!) 10 - H1 11 - H1 12 - H1 (flopped J6JT6 - two boats!!) 13 - H1 14 - split (A222Q) 15 - H1 16 - H2 17 - H1 18 - H2 19 - H1 20 - split (AK288) 21 - H1 22 - H2 23 - H1 24 - H1 25 - H1 Hand #1 Wins: 15 (64%) Hand #2 Wins: 8 (32%) --2 split pots-- if someone had seen me play hands 3 through 9, they would have suggested that i stacked the deck (A6 is a 71% favorite?!?!). the simple point is this: the hands that i, you, anyone witness aren't nearly a large enough sample size to accurately obtain the given 'odds'. not to mention the psychological effect of being sucked-out upon...those events have the tendancy to adhere a little better to our memory than the times when we are on the sucking-out end. you are merely experiencing randomness in all of it's beauty and glory -- while some will bang the conspiracy drum, i choose to simply [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] in awe |
#4
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Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %
1/25 hands you deal live is a straight flush?
That's SO rigged. |
#5
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Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %
[ QUOTE ]
i was going to give you an exercise, but decided to do it myself. 1 deck of cards, pencil, paper removed (hand #1) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] & (hand #2) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] i turned over 5 cards, noted the winner - shuffled, and repeated 25 times. here are the results: 1 - H1 2 - H1 3 - H2 4 - H2 5 - H2 6 - H2 7 - H1 8 - H1 9 - H2 (straight flush!!!!!) 10 - H1 11 - H1 12 - H1 (flopped J6JT6 - two boats!!) 13 - H1 14 - split (A222Q) 15 - H1 16 - H2 17 - H1 18 - H2 19 - H1 20 - split (AK288) 21 - H1 22 - H2 23 - H1 24 - H1 25 - H1 Hand #1 Wins: 15 (64%) Hand #2 Wins: 8 (32%) --2 split pots-- if someone had seen me play hands 3 through 9, they would have suggested that i stacked the deck (A6 is a 71% favorite?!?!). the simple point is this: the hands that i, you, anyone witness aren't nearly a large enough sample size to accurately obtain the given 'odds'. not to mention the psychological effect of being sucked-out upon...those events have the tendancy to adhere a little better to our memory than the times when we are on the sucking-out end. you are merely experiencing randomness in all of it's beauty and glory -- while some will bang the conspiracy drum, i choose to simply [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] in awe [/ QUOTE ] you're right about the randomness. however, tell that to a player who's lost 30 buy-ins [not me] in the last 1 or 2 days [the short-term] to enough hands like A J vs A 6 all-in. i've played about 60 $5.50 NL SNGs on Stars [3 and 4-tabling] the last two weekeds and profited about $24. i dropped as much as 12 buy-ins during that period in 3 hours precisely to hands just like that. and the street i lost to those hands the most on? should'nt be hard to guess, the River. when i look at how many of those hands i lost too, as opposed to, how many i sucked out with--- it's nowhere near the same frequency. i can't count how many times i played a hand perfectly, whether pre-flop or on the other streets, only to have a dagger named "Miracle" float up on the Riverbank. after losing to so many hands like that i such a short period of time, the last thing i wanna hear or trust in is the "randomness". all it's done is piss me off about all the money that could be in my account right now. |
#6
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Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i was going to give you an exercise, but decided to do it myself. 1 deck of cards, pencil, paper removed (hand #1) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] & (hand #2) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] i turned over 5 cards, noted the winner - shuffled, and repeated 25 times. here are the results: 1 - H1 2 - H1 3 - H2 4 - H2 5 - H2 6 - H2 7 - H1 8 - H1 9 - H2 (straight flush!!!!!) 10 - H1 11 - H1 12 - H1 (flopped J6JT6 - two boats!!) 13 - H1 14 - split (A222Q) 15 - H1 16 - H2 17 - H1 18 - H2 19 - H1 20 - split (AK288) 21 - H1 22 - H2 23 - H1 24 - H1 25 - H1 Hand #1 Wins: 15 (64%) Hand #2 Wins: 8 (32%) --2 split pots-- if someone had seen me play hands 3 through 9, they would have suggested that i stacked the deck (A6 is a 71% favorite?!?!). the simple point is this: the hands that i, you, anyone witness aren't nearly a large enough sample size to accurately obtain the given 'odds'. not to mention the psychological effect of being sucked-out upon...those events have the tendancy to adhere a little better to our memory than the times when we are on the sucking-out end. you are merely experiencing randomness in all of it's beauty and glory -- while some will bang the conspiracy drum, i choose to simply [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] in awe [/ QUOTE ] you're right about the randomness. however, tell that to a player who's lost 30 buy-ins [not me] in the last 1 or 2 days [the short-term] to enough hands like A J vs A 6 all-in. i've played about 60 $5.50 NL SNGs on Stars [3 and 4-tabling] the last two weekeds and profited about $24. i dropped as much as 12 buy-ins during that period in 3 hours precisely to hands just like that. and the street i lost to those hands the most on? should'nt be hard to guess, the River. when i look at how many of those hands i lost too, as opposed to, how many i sucked out with--- it's nowhere near the same frequency. i can't count how many times i played a hand perfectly, whether pre-flop or on the other streets, only to have a dagger named "Miracle" float up on the Riverbank. after losing to so many hands like that i such a short period of time, the last thing i wanna hear or trust in is the "randomness". all it's done is piss me off about all the money that could be in my account right now. [/ QUOTE ] Variance. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] |
#7
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Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i was going to give you an exercise, but decided to do it myself. 1 deck of cards, pencil, paper removed (hand #1) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] & (hand #2) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] i turned over 5 cards, noted the winner - shuffled, and repeated 25 times. here are the results: 1 - H1 2 - H1 3 - H2 4 - H2 5 - H2 6 - H2 7 - H1 8 - H1 9 - H2 (straight flush!!!!!) 10 - H1 11 - H1 12 - H1 (flopped J6JT6 - two boats!!) 13 - H1 14 - split (A222Q) 15 - H1 16 - H2 17 - H1 18 - H2 19 - H1 20 - split (AK288) 21 - H1 22 - H2 23 - H1 24 - H1 25 - H1 Hand #1 Wins: 15 (64%) Hand #2 Wins: 8 (32%) --2 split pots-- if someone had seen me play hands 3 through 9, they would have suggested that i stacked the deck (A6 is a 71% favorite?!?!). the simple point is this: the hands that i, you, anyone witness aren't nearly a large enough sample size to accurately obtain the given 'odds'. not to mention the psychological effect of being sucked-out upon...those events have the tendancy to adhere a little better to our memory than the times when we are on the sucking-out end. you are merely experiencing randomness in all of it's beauty and glory -- while some will bang the conspiracy drum, i choose to simply [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] in awe [/ QUOTE ] you're right about the randomness. however, tell that to a player who's lost 30 buy-ins [not me] in the last 1 or 2 days [the short-term] to enough hands like A J vs A 6 all-in. i've played about 60 $5.50 NL SNGs on Stars [3 and 4-tabling] the last two weekeds and profited about $24. i dropped as much as 12 buy-ins during that period in 3 hours precisely to hands just like that. and the street i lost to those hands the most on? should'nt be hard to guess, the River. when i look at how many of those hands i lost too, as opposed to, how many i sucked out with--- it's nowhere near the same frequency. i can't count how many times i played a hand perfectly, whether pre-flop or on the other streets, only to have a dagger named "Miracle" float up on the Riverbank. after losing to so many hands like that i such a short period of time, the last thing i wanna hear or trust in is the "randomness". all it's done is piss me off about all the money that could be in my account right now. [/ QUOTE ] Variance. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] give that man a buy-in for whatever level he plays. i can't wait for you to write a book on poker terms i already know about. even Amazon.com's Super Saver Shipping is'nt enough get me to purchase it. however, maybe if you throw some tangerine-caramel Gators in with my order, i might reconsider. i got a pimp-tight suit that's perfect for 'em. |
#9
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Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %
Try to do the same experiment but use a different colored deck
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#10
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Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %
[ QUOTE ]
meh-so much for my anti-citanul approach. might i direct you and your friend here or here for therapy...i sincerely hope things to get better. [/ QUOTE ] no need for your links [which i'm not gonna read] or your sincere hope for things to get better. none of that is gonna bring back the hands/SNGs that i lost or the money i've could've profited more from had they held up. |
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