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#1
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Hand I witnessed - Do you call this river?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter
UTG ($37.15) MP ($67.65) CO ($117.02) Hero ($53.1) SB ($120.41) BB ($40.3) Preflop:Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25. Flop: ($0.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.5</font>, BB calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50. Turn: ($2.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets $4</font>, BB folds, CO folds, Button calls $4. River: ($10.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets [$50]</font> (Hero is not me. I folded on the flop). So, are you calling here? SB is a solid player - not showing any signs of being suicidal. |
#2
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Re: Hand I witnessed - Do you call this river?
no, the way the hand went down it seems either he has a 4 and I'm screwed or an A and we split $5 a peice. that's risking $50 dollars for a shot at $5.
So making the assumption he either has an A or a 4 5.375(1-x) + -50x = 0 x = 0.09706546275 if he has the 4 more than 9.7% of the time and the rest of the time we split this is a losing bet. I think he has it at least 25% of the time. silly |
#3
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Re: Hand I witnessed - Do you call this river?
What does the 5.375 represent in that EV calculation sillyarms?
Thanks. |
#4
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Re: Hand I witnessed - Do you call this river?
This is almost the right analysis (assuming that there is zero chance that SB would do this without at least an ace). The $5.375 represents hero's share of the existing pot, which was $10.75 when SB made his bet (and, on a chop, you can ignore the size of the bet because hero and SB will just be taking their own money back).
However, there are two flaws with this calculation: First, you are not accounting for the rake, which you need to subtract from the $5.375. Party will still rake the entire $100+ pot, even though it is being chopped. Second, the hero only has $48.60 left, so the second term should only show him losing that much. But the final result is still 9.7%, rounded off, so I guess I am just picking nits. Oh yeah, and I'm with TheWorstPlayer (who continues to deny his nickname) that folding the flop would be the best move, or, heck, how about preflop? I also don't hate raising the flop, but I think calling was the worst possible choice. |
#5
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Re: Hand I witnessed - Do you call this river?
Do I have to play the rest of the hand that way? 'Cause I'd really rather fold on the flop.
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