river checkraise time?

[mike l.]

i have 99 in mp in an okay 30-60 game at commerce. two people limp, i raise, guy on my left (a 2+2 poobah) 3 bets, a blind calls, limpers call. 5 of us for 3 bets.

the flop is Ad9d3c or something. checked to me and i bet, 2+2er raises, rest fold, i call.

the turn is Js. i bet, 2+2er calls?

the river is Qh. i check looking for the checkraise. good idea or bad?

[skp]

Sorry, Mike...but this hand is one that you played extremely poorly.

Preflop: Perhaps, this one is a matter of style but I don't like your raise after two limpers. If guys coldcall behind you, that's not as good as guys also limping behind you. If everyone folds, though you buy the button, you will have at least two opponents with a medium pair. Not an ideal situation.

I would just call (but I'll grant you that this may be a style preference and perhaps you and Andy can convince me why raising ain't really all that bad or is in fact better).

Flop: 2=2'er is to your immediate left. Given his preflop 3 bet, he will almost surely bet the flop. You should let him. Let others call (or raise) and then you can checkraise (or smoothcall a raise if the raiser is to your right). You betting out is not a great move in case he has AK and raises or in case he has QQ and folds.

One can drum good reasons for betting but IMO, the reasons for checking are way more persuasive.

Turn: Having played the flop the way you did, this doesn't seem like a good spot for a stop 'n go. Given that the 2+2'er has succeeded in clearing the field with his flop raise, he should be a lot less inclined to raise a turn bet from you i.e. I would like your turn stop 'n go bet a lot more if the pot was three ways which would give the 2+2'er a good reason to raise your turn bet with his Ak/Aq.

I think that you should have just gone for the conventional turn checkraise here.

The river checkraise attempt seems fine but I find it strange that you want to focus the discussion on that street.

[nykenny]

mike,

probably bad. AQJ all out there..., 3 possible sets,..

but it's true that he could have AQ, AJ or AK. and couldn't resist betting.

anyway, i am running so cold here i don't raise with 99 any more. i open limp or over-limp unless i am in LP... GRRRRR, those fishes got so lucky they beat me in to a tight timid weak fish.

10K hands in one weekend, and i am barely winning. what's more sad is that i suspect i am losing money on most of my premium hands such as AA, KK, QQ, AK...

well enough crying. at least i am playing tight and not losing. is 17% see flop a tight figure? this is over many thousand of hands.

anyway, wish i could be in commerce, maybe go out there in a few weeks for a quickie weekend [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

miss my fishes in commerce (not including u of course [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]).

Kenny

[mplspoker]

I like 3 betting the flop and seeing where it goes... More than likely he has AK-AJ and might raise you on the river so you mind as well bet out.... I play 10/20 so this is above the limits i play, but i'd play it fast as hell....

[elysium]

hi mike
i'm tired as i write this, but when the LP 3 bets, he is usually giving up his position. if you had gotten a solid read that he was betting, i assume you would have check-raised then.

as far as the river, well....the board is pretty broadway, you got the bet in on the turn, the busted draw.....check-call hoping to snap off a bluff. this opponent is too liable to fold if you bet or check-raise. the raise doesn't have value because of the high risk of your opponent folding.

[Gabe]

I don't care for the flop play, it forces the other players out. Let Sucker bet. The flop or turn would be a better place to check-raise in my opinion. On the river, he may not bet AK because of the Q and J.

[andyfox]

"I would just call (but I'll grant you that this may be a style preference and perhaps you and Andy can convince me why raising ain't really all that bad or is in fact better)."

I agree that this may be part of an overall general approach, but I would be more inclined to raise if I had, as mike did, a 2+2 poohbah on my left.

[skp]

Given the lack of a turn raise, the chances of the other guy having JJ or AA are just marginally and I mean MARGINALLY better than the other guy also having 99...heh

At the end, Mike almost surely has the better hand. It would indeed be strange for the other guy to raise the flop with QQ, call the turn with QQ and then suckout on the river with QQ. That's an unlikely parlay.

The other guy probably has an Ace. It's unlikely to be AJ because of the lack of a turn raise. If he somehow has it, he will bet when Mike checks. So, it's a good check.

If the other guy has AQ, he will bet when Mike checks. So, again it's a good check.

If the other guy has AK, he may check thinking that Mike may be checking his AJ thinking that the other guy just hit AQ. But this is a 30-60 game. Guys don't play scared. Mike knows it. The other guy knows it and they both know that each other know it. So, all that is unlikely and the guy will probably bet his AK.

Maybe the dude checks his AT suited on the river if he has that.

So, overall, the river checkraise attempt is a good one.

I still say that he screwed up the hand on earlier streets though.

[andyfox]

"the river is Qh. i check looking for the checkraise. good idea or bad?"

What do you put him on? Does your question mark after this turn call mean you are unsure what he has? He might well be thinking mike bet into me on the flop, despite my pre-flop 3-bet. Now he bets into me again on the turn despite my pre-flop 3-bet and my flop raise. He might have something with which he wants me to raise; I'll just call.

If he has A-K, the presence of both a Q and J on the board might cause him to check behind, as Gabe pointed out. If he has A-Q, he might raise your river bet. Those seem like his most likely hands to me. (Or pocket kings or queens?) If he has any of those hands, do you think a check-raise is a good idea?

[andyfox]

"If the other guy has AQ, he will bet when Mike checks. So, again it's a good check."

Might the guy not raise when Mike bets?