AQs

Schneids · #1 06-09-2004, 10:50 PM

I know all the stuff about small sample sizes and what not.

So far, in a 130,000 hand database, I have had AQs 413 times. With it, I am -.01BB/time.

Should I have a cause for concern yet or could this just be a hand I'm merely "running poorly" with thus far...? (conversely, AQo has been had 1,186 times and is .49BB/hand)

Izverg04 · #2 06-09-2004, 11:31 PM

You clearly hit the far tail of this probability distribution. Is this the hand with which you differ the most from expectation? Obviously, with 169 hands, you should expect one of them to be more than 3 SDs away from the average.

I guess AQs should win about 0.8 BB/hand in a short-handed game that you frequent. As far as standard deviation, if I had to guess, I'd say it's about 4 BB. It sounds reasonable that you end up btw. -3 BB and +5 BB 70% of the time when you start with AQs. However, it is very important to know these two numbers fairly well, beyond such simple guestimates, to answer your question. If I am off by 20% in my assumptions I could be off by at least an order of magnitude in the probability. So I won't give you a reliable answer at this time.

Thinking about your question, I realized that I haven't seen a resource that would compare starting hold'em hands by their volatility. AQs would stand high in such ranking.

Schneids · #3 06-10-2004, 04:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Thinking about your question, I realized that I haven't seen a resource that would compare starting hold'em hands by their volatility. AQs would stand high in such ranking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was wondering the same.

I know that only like once or twice ever in 10/20 short have I folded AQs PF. I know that if I raise and get 3-bet I am just as likely to cap as I am to call the 3-bet. I am wondering if maybe there is something inherently wrong with my approach and perhaps I'm spilling too many chips with this hand, since even if having been dealt it 400-however-many times I said in the first post, I would think by this point it should be showing a profit of some kind. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

It's time for some leak-patrol [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]