Frequency of Streaks...

[Namebejed7]

I started playing poker about two years ago, and have gradually improved into a consistently winning player. My problem used to always be moving up in limits extremely fast, for example I moved to $100 NL on a $400 total bankroll and was depressed when I lost it all. My "problem" now is not really a problem at all, just that my money comes in recognizable streaks, and short ones, not the 200BB variety that I found in the search. I was just curious if this were normal.

I hate to sound scientific about luck, but I seem to run in two week cycles, and have for about 4 months now. Is this normal? I always expected streaks, but I was thinking more in the variety of up 500BB, down 100BB, and so on. Mine goes more like up 100, down 20.

[pzhon]

If you are playing consistently against a variety of opponents, you will be able to recognize past streaks, but you should not be able to predict them. If you scrambled your hourly results, you would still find streaks.

If you play differently when you lose, then you may be able to predict streaks. If your opponents oscillate, you may tend to see streaks. (Maybe you are stronger than typical players on Friday, but not Tuesday.) Since you comment that you were depressed when you lost your bankroll, I think you should worry about playing suboptimal poker when on a depressing streak of bad luck/being outplayed. Some players are better off playing craps (or slowly burning wads of small bills, for that matter) when they get upset, even if they are winners over the long run.

Know your weaknesses and fix or hide them. I don't think losing affects my play much, but I am suspicious about how I handle decisions that determine whether I win or lose for the day. I may avoid risk too much to avoid turning winning days to losing days or accept too much risk for the reverse. To combat this -EV tendency, sometimes I intentionally accept a large even-money wager at the start of the day so that my later decisions probably don't affect whether I have a winning or losing day. Your mileage may vary.

[LetsRock]

It sounds like you're trying to confirm your discovery so that you can count on it being normal. Don't go there. We all have streaks, but they are just not predictable. The next hand may be the start of the next streak, or it may be a contiuance of your current one. You can't define a streak while you're in it; it's a past tense phenomenon.

To look at properly look at poker, you need to me concerned with the one big streak that is called the long run. All other short term spikes are just blips in the big streak.

If you've ben able to notice 2 week streaks, it's just coincidence. If you scramble the numbers enough, you can find just about anything you want.

It's good to pay attention to how you are running, so you can check for any problems in your game, but don't decide to play or not based on whether or not it's "that time of the month".

[Namebejed7]

I guess I didn't express my real question well enough through all my babble. Most of that post was just history, the depressed loss of my bankroll was at the very beginning. I guess the question I was getting at is in the short term, basically a five day span, what is a good players ratio of winning days to losing. I guess I was brought up on rounders to think if I were skilled enough the cards didn't matter.

The question wasn't a complaint, just a matter of curiosity. And thank you pzhon for your comment about player oscillation. I don't have a set scedule, so sometimes I play in the morning and sometimes at night. I will have to keep better session records, maybe I am outclassed at certain parts of the day.

[LetsRock]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess the question I was getting at is in the short term, basically a five day span, what is a good players ratio of winning days to losing.

[/ QUOTE ]

ANd my point is that this type of analysis is pointless. I haven't looked at my records from this angle, but I would guess that I book a win in about 70% of my sessions. I've had a couple of weeks in a row, where I just couldn't book a win.

It's so important to be able to see the long term results when you are having a tough stretch. You'll be less worried about short term results.

[Al Schoonmaker]

You asked" " what is a good players ratio of winning days to losing?"
It is the wrong question, and it can cause you to make TERRIBLE decisions. To improve your winning versus losing days ratio, you will be inclined to hit and run when you have a positive EV, but stick around when you're losing. It is exactly the wrong thing to do.
Rolf Slotboom has an excellent article on that subject. The title is something like "Winning percentage versus win rate." I think he wrote it for Card Player. If so, go to cardplayer.com, click on magazine, writers, and his name. If it's not there, go to Rolf's website, acespeaks.com.
Regards,
Al

[jdl22]

I gotta say Al, you're advice tends to be quite good, but with all the plugging you do for card player (the articles you suggest people read all also excellent btw) I'm beginning to think that you work for them.