Is it (almost) always correct to play the flush draw?

[JSD]

Is it (almost) always correct to play a flush draw in loose micro-limit play?

NOTE: this is my first post, so please go easy if I've not followed etiquette. I've been lurking for a few weeks - this is a great forum and a great resource!

Anyways, I'm relatively new to poker and I've been playing .50/1 ring games at Party for a couple of weeks now and I'm starting to get comfortable with calculating odds on the fly. My goal is for this to eventually become second nature so I don't even have to think about it, but I'm not quite there yet. I'm posting this because I want to get constructive criticism / feedback on my thought processes so I can correct them before I start learning too many bad habits. I thought it might also be helpful to some other folks who are in the same shoes as me.

I play pretty tight (15% VP$IP in 2000 hands so far) so I don't get a whole lot of flush draws, but I will play Axs on the button or CO if enough people limp and I don't think the blinds will raise. One thing I've noticed from the few flush draws that I've caught is that it is (almost) always statistically correct to play out a flush draw to the river on loose micro-limit tables with a few L/P calling stations. In fact, in many cases it semms like it is correct to bet/raise on the flop if I'm playing with enough people who call to see one more card.

I've listed out four examples below of why I think this is the case. Starting with the most common (loosest) example, where its obviously correct to play the draw, and ending with a less obvious example. Again, I'm a rookie at this stuff, so I've probably made a bunch of mistakes. I would greatly appreciate any feedback. BTW, I use the Axs example so there's no question as to having the nuts or not. I'm also assuming a non-paired board so boats/quads aren't a threat - to keep it simple, if I make the flush, MHIG.

Examples:

1) Typical L/P .50/1 table. I get dealt Axs on the Button. Five pay to see rags flop - but it gives me a flush draw. Blinds check, EP bets, MP calls, pot is $3.50 to me, giving me 7:1 pot odds. Assuming one of the two blinds will call, its actually about 7.5:1 odds. Either way, since the odds of making the hand on the turn are 4.22:1 (probably a little better if I consider the three aces as potential outs) this is a no-brainer to at least call. In fact, if I thought I would be called by at least 2 opponents, wouldn't a raise here be appropriate? I'd be getting 2:1 bet odds when I'm about a 1.8:1 dog to make the hand by the river (again probably a little better if I count the aces).

Lets say I played passively and just called (I know, bad idea). SB calls, BB folds, so its 4 to the turn with a $4.50 pot. I miss the draw on the turn, but EP bets again and MP folds so the pot is giving me 5.5:1 odds, not to mention the chance that SB will call again plus the implied odds of EP's bet on the river. With 4:1 odds still, I gotta call, right? Its obviously even better odds if MP called again instead of folding.

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2) Same L/P table, same hand. Five to the flop. Blinds check, EP bets, but this time, MP raises. Pot is $4 to me, giving me 4:1 pot odds. Because its a loose game, I assume that the original bettor will call the raise, which increases the pot odds to 4.5:1, not to mention that there's a good chance one of the blinds will call (despite checking - this is a seriously L/P game). Again, odds of making the flush on the turn are 4.22:1 (not counting the aces this time because of the raise) so its still right to call, so long as you think someone else will call the raise behind you as well, right?

If I carry this example out further and assume its three to the turn (EP bettor who called the raise, MP raiser and me). Pot is $5.50. EP checks, MP bets, giving me 6.5:1 pot odds even if EP folds. So again its correct to call on the turn because my odds of making it on the river are 4.11:1. Not to mention the implied odds of MP betting again on the river.

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3) Same L/P table, same hand. But now its four to the flop (guess a lot of people finally decided that 72o wasn't worth much). Blinds check and MP bets so the pot is $2.50 to me, giving me 5:1 odds, even if the blinds both fold, so its still right to call. A raise here would be more questionable because its likely the blinds will fold and I won't get good bet odds, right?

So lets say I call, SB calls and BB folds, so its three to the turn with a pot of $3.50. SB checks, MP bets giving me 4.5:1 pot odds, which is still good enough to call, even if SB folds. Again, not to mention the implied odds of MP betting again on the river.

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4) Four to the flop again, SB checks, but this time BB bets and MP raises making the pot $3.50 and giving me 3.5:1 pot odds. But even if both blinds fold, I'm getting 4.5:1 implied odds assuming MP will bet into me on the turn, so its still correct to call, right? So I call, blinds fold, and its heads-up to the turn, which I miss. MP bets making the pot $5.50. Now at 5.5:1 odds (6.5:1 implied odds) its still correct to call, right? This is where I'm not entirely certain, because my implied odds on the flop were based on the notion that I would fold on the turn if I didn't catch the flush, right?

But if I think back to the flop - its a $3.50 pot and a $1 call. At this point, if I assumed the blinds would fold and I would end up heads-up, I'd have to pay $2 to see the river ($1 now and $1 to call on the turn) with a chance to win $5.50 ($3.50 + MP's bets on the turn and river). So my expected odds are 2.25:1 and my odds of making the flush by the river are 1.86:1 so this is a good call, regardless of what happens on the turn, right? I'm not so sure about this one.

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Back to my original hypothesis - that it is (almost) always correct to play flush draws in the micro-limits. Even if only a few people see the flop (four is about the least i've seen in micro-limits) and nobody raises pre-flop and it is raised on the flop and you go heads-up to the turn, it is still correct to play the flush draw (per example #4), right?

However, in most of the L/P .5/1 games I've seen, you end up with many hands with more than 5 people seeing the flop and quite a few of them paying to see the turn and maybe even the river. Obviously, the more people along for the ride, the better your odds are on the draw, right? Also, there seem to be quite a few PFRs on these tables, so again the pot can be pretty good sized by the flop, which also improves your odds, right?

So the way I look at it is so long as four people see the flop, you're getting good enough odds to play the flush draw to the river.

Thanks in advance for any feedback!

JSD

[Paul Talbot]

Short answer: yes

If I am the big blind and it is folded to the SB who just calls and I flop a flush draw and get bet into on the flop I am continuing.

At small stakes in multiway action you can play these hands pretty agressively, especially if you have the nut draw and especially if you have position.

You also need to realize that you have implied odds at these stakes as no one is going to fold for one bet on the river with top pair or better.

The exception is when the board is paired and the action indicates your hand might not be good or when you have a non-nut draw and are pretty sure you are up against the nut draw.

Also keep in mind that with AXs the A may be another out.

Regards,

Paul

[krazyace5]

If you have Axs, and two of your flush cards are on the flop I think it is a good idea to bet unless someone bets before you, then call, this will disquise your flush when/if you hit it on the turn. I would give up on the turn unless I had a piece of the board or the board was non-threatening, otherwise I would bet out again. Would this be correct?

[pretender2k]

[ QUOTE ]
Also keep in mind that with AXs the A may be another out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I beleive I read in one of the books if you have four to the flush with the Ace on the turn and you beleive you are up against high pair say there is a King on the board you still have a 26% chance of winning between the flush and pair of Aces. I am still reading and rereading so I may be wrong.

[Ed Miller]

Is it (almost) always correct to play the flush draw?

Yes. Unless the board on the turn is double paired or contains trips, you should almost always see the river with any two-card flush draw (that is, two flush cards in your hand and two on the board).

I can't remember the last flush draw I folded before the river.

[bouh]

even if you don't have the pot odds ?

[Jezebel]

[ QUOTE ]
even if you don't have the pot odds ?

[/ QUOTE ]

You will almost always have pot/implied odds to continue with a 4 flush. Even in a headsup situation, there will be at least 2.5 sb in preflop. If you are bet into on the flop you are getting 3.5:1 (worth a call/raise) and if you are first to act you are likely to lead the betting as a semibluff. Now the turn will have at least 2BB. If bet into on the turn you will be getting 3:1 and can probably imply 1 bb in odds on the river (worth a call). If first to act you can check/call putting us in the same situation, or you could bet again as a semibluff.

Sometimes the odds won't be there, but it usually takes raises in front of you and fear of reraises behind you to wreck your odds to the point of folding.

[Paul Talbot]

If by "give up" you mean you would fold to a bet then yes, it is wrong.

Regards,

Paul