THE EV OF FOLDING

[DcifrThs]

As can be inferred from the subject heading, my question is about the expected value of the two cards which lie in front of you.

I raise the question because of something sklansky said in TPFAP (tournament poker for advanced players- which in my opinion is one of the best if not the best fap book out there if you take the fap name literally). He asks,

"what is the EV of callin with JcTc utg, as compared with the EV of raising with it from the same position? (Folding has an obvious EV of zero.)"

but is it zero? i mean actually zero? to me it would seem that in a 10/20 game the ev of folding any given hand, under obvious assumptions, is $1.5. it costs you that much on average to toss those two cards. Similarly, in a tourney the exact same calculation will result in the average cost of folding any two cards(given similar assumptions which may or may not be analagous). so in deciding to play any two cards in a 10/20 game (WITHOUT CONSIDERING position, players, game etc. etc.) is a decision that involves asking, "is there more than $1.50 in profit to be made in the long run from paying 5,10,15,or even 20 bucks to play this hand either to the flop, turn, or river against this lineup of players?" Obviously to determine the answer to that question the player must evaluate those considerations (position, players, game, etc.). But the question remains, does the "ev of folding" factor in that $1.50???

In sum, is the ev of folding here 0? OR did sklansky just assume we knew what he meant when he said that since it is tpFAP, OR am i not an advanced enough player to read tpfap since this concept is even a question in my mind??

please let me know your opinions!
-Barron

[Ed Miller]

It's really zero.

From your explanation, it sounds like you mean that you think folding has an EV of -$1.5 (NEGATIVE). If that's true, then you should presumably play any hand with an EV of higher than -$1.5. So you should play hands that lose money?

Another way of thinking about it: you already played the blinds. You took a -EV bet on those hands, but now that is in the past. No need to take that into account for this hand.

[Henke]

Let's make a strange assumption. You are invited to a game, but noone in that game want's to play UTG. So they tell you that if you want to play, you'll have to be UTG all the time! If all other rules apply as usual, you won't ever have to post blinds. Now, if you fold all hands for an infinite amount of time, how much have you gained/lost?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
It's really zero.

From your explanation, it sounds like you mean that you think folding has an EV of -$1.5 (NEGATIVE). If that's true, then you should presumably play any hand with an EV of higher than -$1.5. So you should play hands that lose money?

Another way of thinking about it: you already played the blinds. You took a -EV bet on those hands, but now that is in the past. No need to take that into account for this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

makes sense. i was obviously treating the blinds, which you only post in 2/10 hands as factoring in as an average ante over those same 10 hands, both of which cannot be simultaneously correct ( i see that now, and thanks)

i was also curious (and have been for a little bit) as to whether you should pay $5 to play a hand that will recoup that amount including the -$1.50 you "already paid"...but that now seems silly since that would assume again treating the blinds as an average ante...

the reason i thought of it like that was because i went to AC one time and bought into a 5/10 game w/ $300 and left with exactly that amount, after 5 hours of play. i recorded it in my play records as a win of "0" obviously. but i then calculated what it would have "cost to play" (value of my time notwithstanding) assuming i played no hands and 10 people were always at the table. i figured it = 40(hands per hour)*5(hours)*.70(dollars per hand)=$140...so in theory (in my mind at the time) i got to play poker for 5 hours and won $140, minus rake...not bad lol

clearly this was just a thought excersize as winning is winning and a post of $0.00 in my records drags down my win rate regardless...

thanks again for the response.
-Barron

[Norm]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's make a strange assumption. You are invited to a game, but noone in that game want's to play UTG. So they tell you that if you want to play, you'll have to be UTG all the time! If all other rules apply as usual, you won't ever have to post blinds. Now, if you fold all hands for an infinite amount of time, how much have you gained/lost?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why was the current blind structure devised anyway? Why not just have an ante every hand that is large enough to ensure action?

[LetsRock]

While folding is technically EV 0 (I expect to win 0 if I bet 0), I actually look at it as EV+ !

By not putting money into the pot on a hand that has little chance of winning the pot, I look at it like "I just earned a SB by not betting".

I know this distorts the EV concept, and I don't use it on any EV calcs, but it helps to tolerate the cold-card stretches if you can tell yourself you're "winning" by not playing bad hands.

Same thing goes with blind defense:"Do I want to GIVE him 1 SB or 2?" Makes it a lot easier to not be too protective of bad hands.

[Louie Landale]

Yes, dividing the total blinds by the number of players yeilds an average "EV" one would expect per hand; $1.5 in a 10-handed 10/20 game. If you really want to use this number you really MUST adjust it per seat; certainly the BB's EV is much greater than $1.5 since he's already in for $10; and certainly the UTG's EV is smaller than the button's. Anyway, lets go with $1.5 per hand...

This number represents your over-all EV for that hand. That includes the times you fold and the times you raise it up with AA. Once you look and see trash you've already lost your $1.5. This $1.5 is only interesting if you actually MISS a hand; such as going to the bathroom. There is SOME validity to suggesting that taking a leak and missing two hands costs you $3.

The EV if folding is still zero.

- Louie

This leads to one of the best kept "secrets" of choosing your game: those with weak bladders should focus on Stud not Holdem. Wish I'd figured that one out years ago, at least before the cost of Catheter's skyrocketed...

[jedi]

Folding will always be EV 0 in this case. What you're doing is comparing the EV of folding to the EV of playing a crap hand. In this case, the DECISION to fold is +EV over the decision to play.

[ QUOTE ]
While folding is technically EV 0 (I expect to win 0
if I bet 0), I actually look at it as EV+ !

By not putting money into the pot on a hand that has little chance of winning the pot, I look at it like "I just earned a SB by not betting".

I know this distorts the EV concept, and I don't use it on any EV calcs, but it helps to tolerate the cold-card stretches if you can tell yourself you're "winning" by not playing bad hands.

Same thing goes with blind defense:"Do I want to GIVE him 1 SB or 2?" Makes it a lot easier to not be too protective of bad hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

[SossMan]

Okay, this has been bugging me for a couple of days.

In the tournament forum, there was a long discussion about the age old question of if it's ever correct to fold AA preflop. The scenario was presented as this:
10 person SNG, 50%/30%/20% structure. You are in the BB w/ AA. Everyone goes All-in before you and it's your turn to act.
Discounting the deduction that both of your aces are probably in opponents hands, you have a 33% chance against 9 random hands. 1/3 of the time you win 1st, and 2/3 of the time you get nothing if you call. If you fold, you get 2nd 90% of the time, and first 10% of the time. (assuming equal skill)
In short, it's better to fold in terms of $EV, but better to call in terms of ChipEV.
Does this mean that your fold actually has positive $EV, because it allows you to win more dollars by folding than by calling, even though calling is +chipEV?

If this is the case, then is the "folding is always EV of 0" still hold true in tournament situations? Or do you simply have to convert ChipEV to $EV? (with folding always being 0 chipEV)

[bigpooch]

You should think of EV in terms of $ and not chips. Thus,
folding will sometimes give you a +EV in tournaments (and
also you could construct an example where it is a -EV: say
the player due to post the BB has just barely over the size
of the SB and all fold to you, the SB and you have a healthy
stack).