if you cannot raise you should fold?

[Lottery Larry]

something my wife and i were talking about after our home game last night, which was $1-5 stud $0.25 ante.

if you have a loose table that is not super aggressive and you are against 3 or more opponents, when one has a high pair, two are on draws and you have a middle two pair- Jacks up or lower- what is your best play?

I said that if she knew that raising would not drive people out then folding the two pair might be a better play since you are an underdog to the table and you don't have a lot of outs. the main point being that she shouldn't get into those types of hands in the first place and should look for bigger pairs to build on.

is playing that tightly a bad idea? Especially with mainly passive callers who may or may not pay off with losers on the river and who will not give you any indication of where you are really at.

i was not sure if she would be giving up too much by dumping them.

[evenrane]

You said one of them had a high pair. Is it showing or do you just put him on that hand? If it is showing I think folding is the proper play. If you know that raising will not drive anyone out then whats the point, they have another chance to improve as well. It would seem that the only way you could win is if you fill up.

[7stud]

Remember, there are two sides to the equation. Being an underdog to the table, or having a less than 50% chance of winning a hand, isn't the only criteria for staying in a hand. A simple evaluation like that only applies where you can only win $1 for every $1 you bet. In that situation, and given that you are an underdog, then you would decline to take the bet.

However, in poker, you are never limited to winning only $1 for every $1 you bet--you can win the whole pot, which includes antes from 7 other players and, in your scenario, multiple opponents putting in $1 for every $1 you put in the pot, so you have to take into account how much money is in the pot and compare that to your chances of winning the hand.

Running the numbers at twodimes for the following sample hands you posed:

Kd kh 3s 4d 9c(high pair)
2s 7s ts qs 6c(spade flush draw)
5h 6d 7c 8s Ac(straight draw)
jc jd 2c 2h 3d(jacks up)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=180817
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s kd kh 3s 4d 9c - 2s 7s ts qs 6c - 5h 6d 7c 8s ac - jc jd 2c 2h 3d
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3s 9c Kd 4d Kh 96355 19.27 403645 80.73 0 0.00 0.193
Qs Ts 7s 2s 6c 165748 33.15 334190 66.84 62 0.01 0.332
8s Ac 7c 6d 5h 96433 19.29 403505 80.70 62 0.01 0.193
Jc 2c Jd 3d 2h 141402 28.28 358598 71.72 0 0.00 0.283

Those numbers show that the two pair has only a 28.28% chance of winning the hand. So, the odds against winning the hand are approximately 72 to 28, or 2.6 to 1. Not very good odds. But before you tell your wife to toss her two pair into the muck, you first have to consider the odds the pot is offering. For example, if somebody decided to hold a lottery and sell only ten tickets for $100 each, would you buy one? Well, your first question should be: how much does the winner get paid. If the man declared the winner would get paid $100, would you play? What if winning paid $500? $2,000? Finally, what if winning paid $50 million? How do you evaluate those payoffs to make your decision? I'm pretty sure you'd buy a ticket if the winner got paid $50 million--I know I would. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

To evaluate whether you would play the lottery, you need to evaluate your chances of winning versus what the winner gets paid. Playing jacks up on fifth street is like buying a lottery ticket. The price of the ticket is what you think you have to put in the pot the rest of the way. If you win the lottery, you get paid the total in the pot before 5th street plus all the future bets from your opponents. So, the question is: should you buy that jacks up lottery ticket?

With 3 opponents, not even counting all the extra money in the pot before 5th street, you are getting 3:1 on all your bets. That's because every time you make a bet your 3 opponents also have to put a like amount in the pot. What that tells you is: with three opponets with the hands I listed, you should bet and raise even if you know no one will fold. That's because the odds of you winning the pot are 2.6 to 1, but your opponents are offering you 3 to 1 odds, and remember, as I said above, that doesn't even count all the money that was put into the pot before 5th street. If there was, say $18 in the pot before any bets on 5th street, and you think you will have to put in the maximum bet on every round going forward, then the betting would look something like this:

$18
5th street: $5(you) --- $5 $5 $5(your opponents)
6th street: $5 --- $5 $5 $5
7th street: $5 --- $5(let's assume there is only one other opponent here)

So, your jacks up hand is going to cost you $15 to play(=all your future bets), and you can win $18 + $15 + $15 + $5 =$53. That means you would be getting $53 to $15 odds from the pot to continue with your hand, which is 3.53 to 1. Compare that to your odds of winning the hand which is 2.6 to 1. Play on!

[SevenStuda]

Playing as tightly as your suggest doesn't sound too smart for a home game, you don't want to lose your invite. BTW I would never recomend folding if you know you have the best hand going into the river. Furthermore, Jacks are not a bad pair to build on, sounds like you and ebeneezer have a lot in common. LOOSEN UP!!!! ITS JUST A GAME.

[patrick dicaprio]

the hand you pick is a tough one and you shoudl at least consider folding. but often raising will be a better play especially at lower limits where you make money with a hand like this even in a multiway pot depending on the hands that your opponents will play. against two four card draws and a higher pair and when none will fold then folding may be the best play, but how often do you face this situation? you cant use this as an excuse to play tightly in situations that may appear analagous but actually arent, such as when one of the draws is out so it is a three way pot, or if they play weak hands, or if the bring in was not raised etc...

pat

[7stud]

against two four card draws and a higher pair and when none will fold then folding may be the best play

Why is that? My numbers show raising is correct, even if you know no one will fold.

[patrick dicaprio]

the correct play depends on the pot size on fourth street not just the % chance you will win. in a low ante game where the pot is not raised then in that situation the pot may not be big enough to play especially if players will raise to get a free card or will raise to knock out on fifth street.this is just an example.

Pat

[7stud]

the correct play depends on the pot size on fourth street not just the % chance you will win.

The size of the pot on 4th street doesn't matter. Reread my post. With 3 or more opponents, you are getting 3:1 odds on any bets you make, and with the hands I ran the numbers on, it's 2.6:1 against winning the pot, so even if there is 0 in the pot on 4th street, you should bet and raise.

[Easy E]

does that imply that at a loose generally passive table that you will severely tighten up your hands?

While I agree with Pat that you may have to think about folding a lower two pair, doing so all of the time is probably? the road to ruin.

Now, not being able to drive the betting with your two pair can be crippling.