Capping on Turn with Nuts.. ?

[lostinthought]

Hey -
Been reading posts here for awhile, and decided to finally post a hand. I've run into similar situations and need advice.

Party Poker 2/4 game -
Fairly loose with a couple of fish, but some ok players.. some of the details are fuzzy, but let me give it a shot..

In the BB with 45o. Goes around, 4-5 call including SB.

Flop: 10d 2d 3c.

SB checks, I check, next person bets, a couple of calls, SB calls, I call.
[Bit worried about being beaten by the flush, but wanted to see one more card]

Turn: As.
[Sweet - You like deez nutz?]

SB - bets. [?] I raise. 1 other caller (MP), all else people drop out except for SB who re-raises, I cap it, MP calls, and SB calls.

River: 6d
[Shiyat happens]

SB bets, I call one bet, and MP calls.

Did I play this right?
What did the other two guys have?

.
.
.
.
.
.
.

SB - 22
MP - Qd7d - took the pot.


So looking back - at the turn I was a big favorite, and wanted to make the others pay to draw to their hands, but it sure sucked to see Qd7d take that pot after paying so much. Is it right to ram/jam cap the turn when you have the current nuts, if you have the chance to be outdrawn in a multiway pot?
I know in Omaha it can been the case that strong drawing hands are a favorite to the current nuts on the flop, but at the turn here it seems like I am a favorite.
Any pair or quads wins it for the SB (22) [10 outs] and the diamond wins it for MP [9 outs]. Anything else I win. So it looks like (at the turn) I win 60% and the others rougly 20% each. Is this right?

Thanks

[Nottom]

On the turn, the only hand that you wouldn't want to cap against would be 45d.

With 2 players, even with a combined 17 outs you would like to get as much money in the pot as possible.

From 2dimes:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=141875
pokenum -h 4c 5c - qd 7d - 2c 2h -- 2d 3s td ah
Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing 3s Td 2d Ah
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5c 4c 25 59.52 17 40.48 0 0.00 0.595
Qd 7d 7 16.67 35 83.33 0 0.00 0.167
2c 2h 10 23.81 32 76.19 0 0.00 0.238

With 2 players in this pot you are getting 2-1 on your bet as a 3-2 favorite, you really can't ask for much better than that.

[MrDannimal]

Well, if you assume that one of them is on a flush draw, and that the other is not taking up any of the flush outs (makes for easier math, it gets even better for you if they've eaten each other's outs. Granted, if one is on a flush draw and the other has a set it's not as good...)..

There are (from the flush draw's point of view) 9 outs and 46 cards unseen. That makes him a 37:9 dog (just worse then 4:1). That, of course, makes you a 4:1 favorite. If I'm going to get 2 other bets into the pot for every bet I make, AND I'm going to win 4 out of 5 times, I'm happy.

In this case, just looking at the turn/river, you're putting in 5 bets (4/1), the other two guys put in 10 total. 4 times, you win those 10 and the 5th you lose 5. So every 5 times, you're +35 bets.

I *think* that math is right. The end result is: Heck yeah I want to cap the turn with a made straight against a flush draw.

[lostinthought]

Are you intentionally ignoring the draw for the boat, along with the possibility of the flush and boat at the same time..?

[chesspain]

Jazzcat,

I think you played it fine. You had the nuts on the turn, and you need to make the others pay whenever you are the favorite to win the hand--and here you were a big favorite!
You just have to hope that the poker gods don't decide to pee on you when you're holding the vulnerable nuts (that does sound funny [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

Finally, with respect to a potential boat, it is always a possibility, especially when an ace hits on the turn. However, on an unpaired board with no three cards of the same suit and no higher str8, you have the nuts...so BET TO THE MAX or put on a MAX(ipad) [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[lostinthought]

Thanks for the reassurance guys - I thought I had played this right but it just hurt to see that pot leave me on the river after having the nuts on the turn..

I wonder if there was more action on the flop if it would have been right for me to stay in - for instance if the SB (22 - flopped set) decided to come out and check raise on the flop. I am not sure if I would have called 2 small bets cold with the possibility of MP re-raising. What do you think? I think it starts to kill my odds.

I think it's in Krieger's book, where he says that it's generally not to draw to an open ended straight if the flop has 2 of a suit (i.e. possible flush draw) unless the pot is really large (larger than you normally need without the flush draw there) and you know when to get out of the hand. This seems a little weak tight to me - I've seen many 3 suit boards where no flush is there.. I suppose amount of people seeing the flop really affects the chances of a flush being present.


Is Krieger's advice bad? When do you feel comfortable with a open ended straight draw with 2 suited on the flop?

Thanks again.

[Nottom]

If you are worried about your outs being eaten up by a flush then count your draw as a 6 outer. With 2 bets to you, there would need to be about 13 SBs up for grabs for you to make the call (and you can fudge that down a bit since you don't KNOW there is a flush draw and you should make some of that after you hit your draw). With 3-5 people in the pot (you never really specify the exact numbers) you easily have the odds to call even for 2 here.