Percentages...

[1800GAMBLER]

2.5/5 $500 buy in. I have $850 against $1600. 5 handed.

Other player has been aggressive preflop but i haven't seen any of his hands showdowned yet. He's a good player and tricky.

I have QQ on the button.

UTG folds, player talked about raises to $35, i reraise to $80, he calls.

J 8 5, 2 hearts.

I pot bet ~$160. He calls.

Turn: 9o

I bet $300, he raises me all in.


~$400 left. Into a pot of $1880.

~5:1 on my call.

If i'm behind i have 6 outs. 7.6:1, ~8:1 shot.

1/6 = 1/9 + 1/x. x being the amount of times i'm leading to justify this call. X = 1/18. 1:17.

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Preflop hands he'd play like this:

AA, KK, JJ, TT, 99.
AK, AQ, AJ, ATs (didn't know at the time saw him raise that later).

Flop hands he'd play like this:

AJ, KK, AA, TT (maybe), 99 (slim maybe).

Turn:

JJ, AA, KK, TT, AJ (slim).

Combinations:

JJ: 3.
AA:: 6
KK: 6
TT: 6
AJ: 12

(12+6)6+6+3)
18:15.

I should also weight them since i find AJ about 30% he has it, and TT less, and JJ the strongest possibility.

But i'm about to go to bed anyhow, so maybe tomorrow.

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

So anyhow, i folded.

Reason i'm doing this is because this is apart of TOP on check vs betting. I should have checked the turn due to the percentage of the time he is slowplaying a mosnter compared to the percentage of the time i'm winning and the amounts of money going in both ways.


Thoughs?

[The Gift Of Gab]

I'm a little confused by your numbers. If you started with 850 you should have around 310 left after betting the turn. There's also no way your actual pot odds could be 1880:anything, since some of that must be extra money in his stack that you can't call (it's more than double your stack at the start of the hand.)

I hope I have something helpful to say about this hand, especially because I probably know your opponent. Who was it? PM me if you don't want to post it.

[1800GAMBLER]

I'll fix the numbers in the morning. That's how the betting went so anyone who wants to work it out can, i'm beat right now though.

[1800GAMBLER]

$310 is right, hence my pot fark up. Since i thought i was calling $400. So it's a $1700 pot.

I made the post to drill the checking Vs betting part of TOP into me. Think my game is lacking since i'm pot betting the turn too often since the percentage of the time they are slowplaying it's costing me more than it seems to be gaining, and the percentage of the time they are chasing the flush i could deny with a lesser bet. However some do fold the turn on a flush draw when they didn't fold the flop.

Plus it scares away lower pairs and lower kickers more times than it makes more from them.

[1800GAMBLER]

To put a smile on my face:

Same player.

In this 5 hour session i've raised 3 times, twice with AA and once with A8 which just got shown (3 hands before). I limped with KK UTG as well. Which was a fun hand. Unraised flop:

T T 9. I bet 2 callers.
Turn: 9. All check.
River: T. I bet $100 then 9 calls hoping for a slipt.

So anyway, this hand, i limp with AKo UTG, folded to the BB (same player, who's being hyper aggressive and bulling more, has less of a stack now though).

He raises to $25 (below his usually standard $35), i make it $90, he calls.

Flop: Q J 5r

He min bets. (never done that before) I make it $90, he calls.

Turn: 8o

I bet $300, he folds.