Big pairs vs big aces

[nicky g]

Last night at the final table of a small NL tournament, I found kings in the BB. I had about 20,000 chips, with the blinds at 1000-2000, which was the 2nd biggest stack (there was one fairly short stack). It was folded to the SB, who raised 6000. Despite the obvious steal situation, he was playing fairly tight against the big stacks and i was pretty confident that he had a decent hand, probably a big ace. I reraised him all-in for his last 7000 and he called and showed AQ. An ace on the turn and I wasn't looking two clever with only a few blinds left (I busted out, qite needlessly actually - but that's another story - shortly after).
This sort of thing has happened to me so many times in B&M tournaments (it rarely happens online, probably because the blind to chip ratios tend to be different in the SNGs I play), and I'm beginning to think it's better to flat call with any big pocket pair other than aces that you think is ahead but vulnerable to an overcard when teh raiser is bound to call a preflop reraise, as a bet might have folded him on the flop (though possibly not, as he would have picked up a gutshot straight on the 235 flop). What do people think? This is the umpteenth time I've done a hard-built decent stack with kings or queens to an ace overcard and lost a decent chance to win. Of course the problem with calling is not knowing what to do when an ace flops. How do others play this sort of situation?

[Bolivia]

Given that he was playing tight and his stack size since he's basically commiting himself with half his chips in there (if he had a larger stack it would be much less likely), and he's up against the 2nd largest stack at the table he's almost definitely got a hand and not on a blind steal. Basically you're almost %100 that he's got a strong hand (if he's a tight or solid player).

The problem with just calling is that he's going to act before you.

If an Ace hits, he's still very likely to put his remaining chips in with QQ's, JJ's, 10's second pair etc., but since you know that he knows you are capable of calling in the blinds with a wider range of hands and it is likely a.) that you didn't connect with the flop and b.) you could easily bluff if he checks then he is pretty much forced to move all in with the hands described above. All of which you have beat unless he's holding an Ace. So, given his stack size and the above info you're basically forced to call any bet on the flop if the ace shows up. Which is no different than pushing him all in pre-flop.

If he's got any pocket pair and an ace doesn't show up, he's probably gonna auto-bet the flop before you which is the same as if you'd gone all in before the flop.

Now, if an ace doesnt't show up on the flop and he's got an ace in hand, and he doesn't connect with his kicker there's still probably a 50/50 chance he's going to auto--bet at the flop with Ace high. This is no different than you pushing all in before the flop. Even in the chance that he doesn't bet and you bet at the flop, he still could very well put his remaining chips in there after you bet (because he could very well put you on a steal - however to check and call here is an extremely weak play). So the majority of the time here it is no different than you pushing all in preflop.

So I think given the likelyhood that he would fold and save yourself from the slim chance of getting a bad beat on the turn or the river doesn't outweight the opportunity to take his remaining chips when he's putting his hand in with the worst of it and having a very good chance of picking up an extra 7k to play with.

[fnurt]

Let's say you call preflop and no ace flops. Now he checks and you push in. He needs to call 7000 to win 23000, so he clearly does not have the pot odds to call. So do you want him to fold or call here?

I think if you want him to fold, because you're afraid to take the chance of him hitting 3 outs on the turn or river, it might be time to take up chess. I don't understand why people are always looking to pass on situations where, like here, they are 6-1 favorites, somehow assuming that down the road they'll be able to make the same money with no risk at all. That never happens.

Mind you, with 23000 in the pot and your opponent having a stack of 7000, it's not really wrong for him to push all-in on any flop, regardless of whether he hit it. If your opponent follows this strategy, then you are going to lose every single time an ace hits, whether he has an ace or not; and when an ace doesn't hit, you're no better off than if you had put him all-in before the flop.

[Magician]

With KK you shove it all in before the flop and if he has AA you shrug and go to the next tournament.

With the opponent having anything other than AA you are at least a 70-30 favorite (i.e. when he has one overcard). That's too big an edge to pass up.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The other problem is, say a good player raises preflop . Our hero just calls. Flop comes A-x-x, and now this good player moves in on the flop. Does our hero fold KK? Does he realize a good player would make this play with, say, 76s?

This is another reason why you have to push big pairs preflop. A good player will eat you alive with your own fear.

[nicky g]

"I think if you want him to fold, because you're afraid to take the chance of him hitting 3 outs on the turn or river, it might be time to take up chess. "

Lol, I am taking up chess. Though keeping up poker. I wouldn't want him to fold in that situation, although I wouldn't be hugely bothered if he did - I'd have almost 30,000 chips and be chip leader, he'd be down to the felt. My point is that I don't particularly want him to call when I am only a 2-1 favourite and losing cripples what till that point was a healthy stack - especially as he is not making a mathematical mistake by calling a reraise preflop, whereas he would be making one by calling 7000 on the flop. All I'm saying is that giving someone the chance to see five cards with a decent chance at beating you might not be the best way to play it when you can't afford to lose; especially as if you do this repeatedly for all your chips, you are going to get busted pretty quickly. In a cash game or during a rebuy period of course I'd want to be all-in every time, but I thik there's more to consider here. For magician - I'm not remotely worried that he has aces. The point is I was fairly certain he had an overcard to beat me, and was wondering if it's best to give him five cards to hit for all the chips, or break it down so that I can put him in a very difficult situation if no ace hits the flop, where calling would be a mathematical mistake put folding would give uup a large pot and leave him in poor shape. Anyway at least noone seems to think I played it wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Ignatius]

it's better to flat call with any big pocket pair other than aces that you think is ahead but vulnerable to an overcard when teh raiser is bound to call a preflop reraise
.
Nope. This is exactly the situation where you want your whole stack in preflop. If he really has an ace as the only overcard to your pair then you are a 3:1 favorite. By flat calling, you give him a chance to get away from the hand as a 1:7 dog in case of an aceless flop which will happen 5 times out of 6. You can get away only once in six times (and sometimes fold a winner in the process as your read cannot be 100% accurate), so by flat calling you help your opponent 5 times a often as you can possibly help yourself.

[fnurt]

I understand your reasoning but remember, you are already giving him 3 cards to hit an ace. So you are paying a lot of EV to deny him the chance to see those last 2 cards.

You still have a ways to go to win the tournament, and you're going to have to make that next 7000 sometime. I'd rather try to make it now, as a big favorite, than get conservative and pray that the next time I bet it I'll be an even bigger favorite. You only get AA and KK so often and should be happy whenever you get the chance to double up against an inferior hand.

In any event, the other issue some of us have mentioned, that you're going to get pushed off the flop by hands like QQ and JJ when an ace comes, is also something to think about.

[nicky g]

OK. I shall stick to my usual ways. Probably being affected by the fact that this has happened an awful lot of times to me - in fact in a live B&M tourney I've never had KK or QQ stand up against a big ace all-in (I play about 3 of these a year, so it's not that big a deal), so when someone suggested the strategy outlined above it seemed attractive. Thanks to everyone for the responses.

[nicky g]

PS on rereading my original post, I notice I forgot to mention it was 4-handed. Not sure if that came across, and if it makes any difference to people's responses. Also apologies for the appalling typos etc.