video poker advice

[rr2000]

The online casio VideoPokerGrand offers

Joker poker: 7/5 Kings or better payout
Deuces wild: 3/2 Trips or better payout

Which is better, assuming I use optimal strategy?

[Ed Miller]

If you post the whole paytable, you might get a reasonable response. For instance, "3/2 Deuces" does not specify a unique paytable.

[rr2000]

yes, shd've posted the complete payout. Here it is:

Joker Poker:

Royal - 750
5 of a kind - 200
Wild royal - 100
str8 flush - 50
quads - 17
Fullhouse - 7
Flush - 5
Str8 - 3
Trips - 2
Two pair - 1
Kings or better - 1

Deuces wild:

Royal - 250
Four deuces - 200
Wild royal - 25
Five of a kind - 16
Str8 flush - 13
quads - 4
full house - 3
flush - 2
str8 - 2
trips - 1

[Ed Miller]

The Joker Wild game has a 97.96% payout using optimal strategy. The Deuces Wild game has a 95.56% payout using optimal strategy. You can get these numbers, as well as derive optimal strategy, using Bob Dancer's fantastic WinPoker software.

[Wildbill]

I have always wondered, what percentage of people do you think are ahead over their lifetime playing optimal play machines without including cash back or comps? I don't know any strong VP players so I have no idea, but I hear some say there a good number of them while others say only after comps and cash back are any of these people even able to be up.

[rr2000]

thanks, majorkong.

[Terry]

Strong VP players DO include cash back in their calculations when deciding whether to play a certain machine; it would be foolish not to. A machine that is beatable for say $15/hr might be worth $45/hr (plus comps) on a triple points day.

As to how many such players there are, well, I can think of two ways to find out.

1.) Invest $100 in software and books and a day or two of time learning how to play and scanning ads for promotions. The very first time you sit down to play you will know who the winners are.

2.) Find a place that has beatable machines and that has a multiple points day coming up. Observe those machines right before the point special begins. The players who are chatting, having coffee and stalling, and who begin to play the minute the promo starts are the winners.

Video poker is really pretty easy money, though very boring. If you have machines available, it can be a worthwhile diversification.

I would go so far as to say that in Las Vegas more people are earning a living playing video poker (and other beatable slots) than playing live poker, and some of them earn very respectable amounts and have six figure BRs.

[Wildbill]

There are hundreds of people making a living in Vegas playing poker, but much of the time they do it out of state or are tournament specialists. I doubt there are as many successful VP players, although quite a few might have it as a decent profitable hobby. I don't consider someone making $10/hour or less anything more than hobby status.

I agree promo money does need to be counted, but I just asked that specific question to get a sense of how close to the expected return do these people get on their play since VP is so dependent on hitting royals and playing perfectly with a lot of speed.

[Ed Miller]

I played a promotion in May at the Tuscany. There were plenty of people there who do this fulltime. Obviously, it depends on the payscale, but if you played worthwhile promotions with absolutely optimal play for 40 hours a week for a year, I would be damn surprised if you ended the year a loser.

[Terry]

I’m not stating opinion here, Wildbill, I’m stating facts gained through personal experience – and I’m not talking about $10/hr, either; $25 to $60/hr opportunities are regularly available and $100+/hr comes up more than you might think.

Many is the night that I got up from a “pretty good” $10/$20 Hold ‘em or Omaha 8 at the Mirage shortly before midnight because a triple point day was starting in another casino and I knew my expectation there was over $40/hr with much less risk. Plus comps... the comps some of these places give slot players are incredible, but how much Cristal can ya drink? And how much do you have to toke the waiter for a $700 comped dinner? Some people choose to use their comps to live in comped rooms instead of paying rent, and some have even been known to take the comped rooms and rent them out at a discount. Seriously, using up your earned comps can be difficult.

Skilled players get very close to the expected return... if there is a difference it’s in the third decimal for good players. With the books and training/analysis software available today, anyone with an IQ over 90 can become a proficient player in a matter of days... hours, if they’re halfway smart.

Yes, getting the expected return depends on hitting royals, but you play so many hands/hr that you get in the long run pretty quickly; those royals are gonna come every week or two. majorkong mentions a year – a professional video poker player today having a losing year is unheard of, losing months are rare – it’s not like it was in the old days when chasing progressives was all there was. Today there are beatable machines, easy to use software to develop easily implemented near perfect or even perfect playing strategies, and CASH BACK to help relieve the drain on your BR while waiting for the royal.

I state again that there are more people in Las Vegas making a decent living playing slot machines than there are playing live poker. Think about it. There are only a handful of poker tables and most of the players are either losers or very small winners. There are thousands of slots, tens of thousands, and hundreds of them are easily beatable.