JJJ, worst possible river

bnorthro · #1 12-17-2005, 05:01 PM

Villian in this hand seems pretty solid. He's 23/20/2 over 70 hands, but he was playing much tighter for the first 2/3 of the session (maybe bad cards, it's an aggressive table).He hadn't been in many hands, He played Q10o in a huge family pot (capped 5 ways) to the river on a 10 hi board, he had KK vs my JJ earlier.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, MP calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, MP calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (8.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, MP caps, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB

The river was probably a bit excessive. Is this a bet/call, check/call line on the river with an unlikely str8 making it? I found it really hard to believe he could/would play A10 this way. I think his much more likely holding would be something like AQ, KQ, AK (probably not with the flop action). QQ, KK, and AA are possible, but he would have capped those.

Just checking some of my lines (I've been playing on PokerRoom for the last 12k hans, so no converter -> no hand posts).

Thanks.

damaniac · #2 12-17-2005, 05:07 PM

At the very least you have to bet/call the river, no check-calling. AT [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is really the only hand that would make sense here, but I suppose he could have QQ/KK or just regular AT here too. I think AK/KQ are more likely. Anyway, er, I guess I 3-bet and cry when he caps it. The ideal would be to c/r/call a 3-bet, but we have no idea he's about to go off on the river so you definetly bet out.

MrWookie47 · #3 12-17-2005, 05:08 PM

This isn't the worst possible river card. K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is definitely worse. You should have cut off the action before MP capped the river. I think your 3bet is fine. KQ and KJ are pretty reasonable holdings that you're ahead of with that raise. AT seems odd to play this way (got crappy odds on turn, raising the flop with a gutshot and an overcard?) and can be discounted, and QQ and KK are very unlikely given the lack of a cap. I think this is fine.

bnorthro · #4 12-17-2005, 05:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't the worst possible river card. K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is definitely worse.

[/ QUOTE ]
Right.

I think bet/call would probably have been the better line. I defenitely cried at the cap.

Villian had As10c

#5 12-17-2005, 05:16 PM

This is a wierd one. I'm sure I'd want to reraise the flop also. The only reason not to raise the flop is general respect for villain's ability in general despite how he played the hand. The only hand that makes sense to me like this is A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If he played KK or QQ like this, then more power to him.

damaniac · #6 12-17-2005, 05:16 PM

Doesn't seem like a solid play at all (on the flop) by the villain. That board is just way too likely to hit a 3-bettor. Maybe you fold TT/99, but otherwise you're going to showdown and he's drawing to 4 outs. Oh well, it happens.

bnorthro · #7 12-17-2005, 05:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't seem like a solid play at all (on the flop) by the villain. That board is just way too likely to hit a 3-bettor.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I thought as well. I guess it gows to show you that someone's stats defenitely don't tell the whole story. There was a LAG at this table cleaning up and hitting retarded hands, so maybe villian was tilting a bit or something.

0-3 on JJ today. WhooHoo.

TomBrooks · #8 12-17-2005, 05:28 PM

Three betting the river is probably about a 50-50% proposition. Sometimes MP will have two pair, sometimes a straight. You have to call the cap, because surely someone will cap with two pair, especially top two pair KQ more than 1 in 16 times.