A9s - I'm in trouble

Roy6 · #1 12-05-2005, 09:46 PM

CO is 27/15 TAG after 90 hands, seems good but a little bit weak. Anyone against 3-bet preflop?

SB's numbers 28/16/4.22 after 90 hands.
I had a memorable encounter against him: He donked from the blind mway against me with K2s 3-flush, no pair. He bet the turn when he got his flush draw (J), I raised, he 3-betted me OOP with no pair. He rivered the flush then.

It seems preflop he's competent. But postflop he's out of the line often. So can I call down?

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, 1 folds, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.00 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.00 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, CO folds, Hero calls.

River: (10.00 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.00 BB.

callydrias · #2 12-05-2005, 09:51 PM

I'm not against the preflop 3-bet every once in a while, but I am against the flop peel. I know the pot is big and you're last to act, but consider the preflop capper's hand range. You've got to be drawing very thin.

I may be convinced otherwise though.

Roy6 · #3 12-05-2005, 09:54 PM

I devaluate my pair outs to 4, my flush out is 1, I give another out for backdoor straight and split outs. That's enough.

jt1 · #4 12-05-2005, 09:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I devaluate my pair outs to 4

[/ QUOTE ]

Why 4? 3 makes sense but a whole out to the chance that 88 will cap?

[ QUOTE ]
my flush out is 1

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought b/d draws were 1.5 each. Am I wrong?

Roy6 · #5 12-05-2005, 10:02 PM

You might well be right if you cite Ed Miller. These are rough estimations though.

callydrias · #6 12-05-2005, 10:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I devaluate my pair outs to 4, my flush out is 1, I give another out for backdoor straight and split outs. That's enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

4 pair outs?? Keep in mind Villain is 28/16 and completely out of position. What capping hands don't blow your A9s away?

Kumubou · #7 12-05-2005, 11:32 PM

I probably fold to the PFR -- I doubt he's screwing around enough out of MP to make this a profitable play, unless you have a read that he weak post-flop. Once you get capped by the SB, you are in trouble.

On the flop, you are getting 14:1 with probably two outs for your pairs (since you have no idea if spiking a 9 or an A is good), 1.5 outs for the BDFD, and .5 outs for a running 7-8 one card BDSD. That gives you enough shreds of the flop to peel one.

Once you spike a 9, you have to call down as you are now getting 5:1 on a calldown, and given a PFR range of AA-JJ and AK, you are now a 60-40 dog -- so you are getting way more than enough odds to call down in the hopes that he has AK. Even if you put your chances of being ahead at 0%, there is still more than enough in the pot to peel for your five outer. The river bet would make it less likely that he has AK at that point (I don't think he fires all three chambers with AK UI there... maybe he does...), but now you figure to be 1:10 to win, which seems plausable.

-K