Too ag with TPWK?

Catsailor · #1 11-26-2005, 06:06 PM

Utg 1 is calling station who likes to bluff/raise flop. Will call down with nada.
Utg 2 Lpf, raises any Ax & chases draws alot. Will fold to aggresion.
SB seems solid pf, No other real reads as this is early in the session.
There has been a lot of limping and folding on the flop. Otherwise I wouldn't have been in this flop.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP2 folds, CO folds, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

I thought I had 2 Q outs and maybe discount 3 8's to 1.5 outs so maybe 6 to 1. Maybe thin the field and hope for no overcards.

Turn: (7.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, SB raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

I hate the A but haven't seen SB ck/r before so I bet out.
Mistake? Now I fear SB has x3,Ax, or Q higher kicker. UTG's are just coming along. Should I have ck'ed turn? Should I fold to the ck/r now? Or go into call down mode?
Thanks for any help
Cat

moose47 · #2 11-26-2005, 06:27 PM

If you are giving yourself 3.5 outs your odds are more like 12:1. I would fold this because barring a read on SB, I think it is unlikely he leads into a field of 7 with a hand that you are ahead of.

Also it is hands like these that make me more likely to fold Q8s preflop. You flop your queen and are unsure of where you stand in the hand. Maybe if you are closer to the button where the threat of a preflop raise behind you is lessened but in early position I throw this away.

detruncate · #3 11-26-2005, 06:44 PM

UTG+2 is pretty early to be limping Q8s. I know you said it's a context specific play, but even so you're going to have to tread very carefully post flop and it doesn't sound like you're going to be paid off well when you connect solidly. On the other hand, the pot is probably going to be reasonably large and it does sound like you're at least semi-likely to see multiple streets inexpensively. I'd limp Q9s without thinking too much about it in the very loose/passive game you seem to be describing so Q8s is probably not that bad, but reasonably good post flop play is necessary.

A 'solid' SB completes pf and leads into 7 players on a drawless board. What range do you put him on? You gave some outs estimates, but outs vs what?

Catsailor · #4 11-26-2005, 06:58 PM

I know the preflop call is thin. Only myself and UTG has raised preflop since I've been here.
I'm concerned that maybe I'm calculating the odds wrong. I'm sure this hand wasn't played great. I thought 3.5 to 1 was 6 to 1 on flop, 12 to 1 on turn. Also I don't have many redraws. Should I count outs for my kicker? Just trying to learn.
Thanks, Cat

Catsailor · #5 11-26-2005, 07:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]

A 'solid' SB completes pf and leads into 7 players on a drawless board. What range do you put him on? You gave some outs estimates, but outs vs what?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought small pocket pair, KJ, or I guess I really didn't think, Just hit that button in the heat of battle. I'm only playing one table, and keeping Hand History open. The player reading is still coming slowly. Outs against what? Good question!! I don't have PT yet but will soon.
Thanks, Cat

Shillx · #6 11-26-2005, 07:16 PM

Check the turn for sure. The flop is interesting and I would just call with the intention of not knowing what to do on 4th street. I guess call, raise and fold are viable choices depending on the action. Look what calling does for you here...

1) If you have the best hand you are way ahead. Everything that folds probably had no shot to begin with.

2) We get to see (for a cheap price) if one of the flop callers in fact has a three.

3) We can still get value from the hand by raising the turn if the action goes bet-call-call. In this spot, we only have to be reasonably worried that the flop bettor has us beat. If he 3-bets the turn we just throw it away. It also gives us the option to just calldown if the flop callers go away.

Brad

McGahee · #7 11-26-2005, 07:32 PM

I hope this doesn't sound results-oriented, but:
PF - all you have is sootedness. You don't have much high card strength, connecting ability, or position. Personally, QTs is my cutoff in that position.
On the flop I think you have to call as you did. Raising sucks because SB usually has you beat and you're getting too much overlay to fold. It's really not a good flop though because you're kicker is going to get counterfeited whenever you're ahead and when you're behind and you counterfiet somebody else's kicker on the turn as you did - there's a good chance somebody else will hit their overcard. I think a K or J might be about the best non Q/3/8 turn card you can hope for and even that wouldn't be so hot. Yeah, check the turn though.

Catsailor · #8 11-26-2005, 07:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]

On the flop I think you have to call as you did. Raising sucks because SB usually has you beat and you're getting too much overlay to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop I did't call, I raised.(stupidly perhaps)Yes I wish I had ck'ed turn.

McGahee · #9 11-26-2005, 07:43 PM

Whoops - hey - I was trying to give you some props - just run with it. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

detruncate · #10 11-26-2005, 09:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

A 'solid' SB completes pf and leads into 7 players on a drawless board. What range do you put him on? You gave some outs estimates, but outs vs what?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought small pocket pair, KJ, or I guess I really didn't think, Just hit that button in the heat of battle. I'm only playing one table, and keeping Hand History open. The player reading is still coming slowly. Outs against what? Good question!!

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the few side benefits of playing vs solid seeming players is that you can often put them on a fairly accurate range. So start by eliminating hands. Villain probably raises QQ-AA, AQs, KQs. An aggressive player probably also raises AQo, QJs, maybe QTs. Maybe also KQo, but that could easily be a complete.

He probably completes offsuit broadways like (KQo), QJo, QTo. He probably completes suited queens, suited 3s, and pocket pairs.

Now what does he bet into 7 players? PPs < Q are unlikely. Maybe weak Qs. Probably strong ones. Almost certainly trips or better unless he's a slowplayer. You can run through the combinations to see where you stand, but let's just tentatively say that you're not a huge favourite against his range and usually have relatively few outs to an outright win when behind.

So now in addition to his bet we get a couple calls. Are they loose enough to be calling with the sorts of hands we want them to (A-high, PPs, etc)? Will they raise strong Qs or trips + ? We're probably going to be less successful narrowing down the callers' ranges, but we do need to think about whether their calls make us more or less inclined to raise.

I just call the flop. I'm not that worried about they guys behind me outdrawing me -- they're unlikely to have more than 3 outs. I don't know much about the callers' hands. Our hand probably isn't a huge favourite against Villain's range. We can fold on the turn if it's 2 bets to us or think about raising a safe card if Villain leads again and gets a call or 2 (as others have said).

Your turn bet puts you in a difficult spot. You may have counterfeited Villain's kicker, but we're splitting a lot of the time when our Q is good and drawing slim the rest of the time. The c/r is a pretty strong move after your flop raise. The pot is probably big enough that you can call for a 3 outer, but the pot is going to be even bigger on the river and you're going to have a tough time laying down UI for 1 bet closing the action, so your bet will often result in you spending 2 more. Better to check through and spend that bet on the river if it can get you to a showdown -- again, your opponents are unlikely to have more than a couple outs and you're now often going to be good for only half the pot.