Pre-flop EV vs. post-flop EV (long)

[rtrombone]

I realized at some point that Jimbo and I were talking about two different things in my thread re: loose games. (Philuva also brought this up.) Basically, it's the difference between pre-flop and post-flop EV. Loose players are generally getting the worst of it when they cold call a good player's raise before the flop. This, I have found, is a very distinguishing feature of loose games--the number of people who will cold call an EP raise. Sometimes, it's as if they don't give a rat's ass that you've raised. They're going to see the flop, and that's all there is to it.

Now, just as with post-flop action, I believe that a cold caller benefits from other cold callers. Before the flop, he is almost certainly an underdog to the raiser. The more money that goes in the pot pre-flop, the better his odds on flopping lucky. Suppose the pre-flop raiser has A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] . The first cold caller has J [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] . Does this cold caller care if someone with K [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] also cold calls? Or someone with 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] ? Not particularly. Mr. J [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] knows that he will need to flop at least one pair to have a chance of winning. The more money that goes in the pot, the less incorrect his chasing is.

What about Mr. A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] ? Does a hand this strong mind all the pre-flop calls? Each cold caller certainly decreases the chances that his hand will hold up. But he may still welcome them, because they represent positive EV. I don't have my book of numbers with me, but from what I recall, pocket aces will win about 30% of the time against 10 random hands if everybody goes to showdown. This is certainly +EV. The guy with aces is a 7 to 3 favorite and is getting 9 to 1 on his money.

The problem is that post-flop, only those people who hit the flop are going to continue. So the guy with aces isn't going to get 9 to 1 on the hand. Say there are 9 cold callers before the flop. Pre-flop, he's gotten 9 to 1. Post-flop, let's say that 3 people have hit. Top pair, middle pair and bottom pair. The problem is that with all the dead money in the pot, each of these guys has the proper odds to try and hit their 5-outers. They're getting better than 20 to 1 on their flop call and better than 12 to 1 on their turn call. This is a direct result of the pre-flop raise and the fleet of cold callers.

Suppose the board is Q [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , and that the chasers hold Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] , K [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] and 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] . A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] wins this hand 43.29% of the time. (We're assuming everyone else misses completely and folds at the flop.) He loses 56.71% of the time. Assuming one river call and a river raise payoff, his EV for the hand is 3.7251 BB.

My question is, does the chasers' positive EV post-flop outweigh the negative EV of all the cold callers pre-flop? Let's see what happens if the guy with pocket aces limps pre-flop. Call it a failed limp-reraise attempt. So 10 people see the flop for one bet. Again, everyone misses but the three chasers and the hero. Hero bets the whole way, gets one river call when his hand is good and pays off a river raise when it is not. His EV for the hand is 1.5606 BB.

This seems to be pretty strong evidence that all the dead money from the people who completely miss the flop is very much +EV, even if it gives the chasers the correct odds to draw out on you post-flop. This is an extreme example with a family pot pre-flop, but I don't think it's unreasonable. The bottom line is, you make money from all those people who miss the flop, so in this respect pocket aces don't mind loose players too much.

Here's where it gets interesting. I don't think there's much debate that you should raise with AA and KK from pretty much any position, regardless of how many other people are in the pot. What about AK? This is still very much debated.

Suppose there are 4 limpers to you on the button. You have A [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] . You know that with this many limpers, the blinds will call a raise. You also do not fear a limp-reraise. What do you do?

Let's say you raise. Everyone calls. 7-handed to a flop of A [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] . Only two people have a piece of this flop, one guy with Q [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , another with 6 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] . Operating under the same assumptions as above, your EV for this hand is 5.2154 BB. If you don't raise, it's 2.7082 BB.

Now, AK is different from AA because 2/3 of the time you're not going to flop anything and you pretty much have to give it up right there. So when you raise, 1/3 of the time you will win an extra 2 1/2 BB (roughly), and 2/3 of the time you will lose an extra 1/2 BB. There is still a positive EV of 1/2 a BB from raising. Notice that again, you get positive EV even though you are now giving the chasers the proper odds to chase post-flop!

This is news to me. I had previously been in the "don't give them the proper odds post-flop" camp. I may have to rethink my stance. It seems like if there are enough limpers, forcing each one of them to pay two or three bets pre-flop can outweigh all the disadvantages of a loose game post-flop. That is, all the chasers will be getting the right price to draw out on you, but you don't care because you've gotten so much dead money from the players who fold at the flop.

I don't know how many limpers you need to make a raise correct (it seems like the more the better, though, contrary to the idea that AK does not play well multiway). I also don't know if you should raise after a bunch of limpers with 10 10 or JJ. You may have to throw away your hand more often than you would with AK, or end up in precarious situations like flopping second pair.

The other question this brings up is, if it is correct to raise a bunch of limpers with AK, is it still correct to do so with a traditional multiway hand like J10s? My calculations indicate that it may not be, because even though you are giving yourself terrific odds to draw out post-flop, the person to benefit from all the dead money you introduce with your raise is the eventual winner. And even if you flop a straight or flush draw, the favorite is top pair...someone holding KQ offsuit may, in the long run, benefit from your pre-flop raise more than you.

The final conclusion to draw from this is that in loose games, you have to capitalize pre-flop. With a premium pocket pair or AK, raise and reraise all those loose fools. You benefit from all the ones who have to muck at the flop. It's weird. Maybe big cards don't go down in value in these games after all?

[bernie]

postflop mistakes are worth more (generally) than preflop.
sure you have +EV postflop, but so do they. if they are getting correct odds to chase, theyre playing correctly to do so. there are different, tactical ways to play the flop and turn depending on the preflop action.

i put a long post about this awhile back titled, "raising o/s hands with limpers"

many times, id much rather have players make multiple street mistakes post flop than just one preflop mistake. another thing to think about is if they hit their hand, and you dont, or you have a big pair, say AA and someone flops a small set, youre postflop mistakes of chasing a 2 outer will greatly counter his preflop call. especially once your calling the big bets on the turn. remember, he was behind preflop getting 8-1. your behind post flop on the flop getting 11-1. on the turn, your getting 22-1 if you call AND it's a double bet. which compounds the mistake more. this isnt saying not to raise with AA preflop, just an example of one way to look at a hand in terms of comparing mistakes.

by raising preflop, you may give up a little postflop. and vice versa. ill look for the link for ya....

b

[bernie]

http://www.twoplustwo.com/forums/sho...rue#Post278434

you may find it helpful

b

[rtrombone]

Bernie,

You are right that the players who happen to hit the flop in some way aren't hurt too bad by your pre-flop raise. They now have the proper odds to draw to their flush or straight, maybe even their 5-outer. This isn't the issue, however. The issue is whether the raise is +EV in the long run.

You see, all the other loose players in there with their draw-type hands are severely hurt when they flop nothing and have to fold at the flop. They've contributed two small bets, or double what they would have absent your raise. All this dead money is fantastic news for whoever wins the pot. And who is going to win the pot most of the time? The mathematical favorite at the flop: top pair.

Think of it this way. If some random dude threw two hundred dollars into the pot in a 15-30 game before the flop, what hand would you rather have? AK offsuit or 67s? 67s now has the odds to draw to almost anything post-flop. But the fact that 67 suited's calls post-flop are +++EV don't make up for the fact that AK is the favorite to win that dead money. You still want AK here. Let 67s have +EV calls post-flop. AK is far preferable.

I'm beginning to understand why Abdul advocates raising a bunch of limpers with a hand like K10 offsuit. I still wouldn't do this, for reasons to be described below, but it makes some sense. If you know that your hand is not dominated, a raise is right every time. Because if you flop top pair you have a good chance of winning the pot, and everyone with draw-type hands has to hit to continue past the flop. Most will check and fold for one bet. And now that's two bets you've gotten from that opponent, where without a raise you would've gotten only one. The dead money makes up for the fact that you've given chasers who hit the flop the proper odds to try and draw out on you post-flop.

The concept of dead money is huge; I think its importance is understated. It is this, and this alone, that made me change my mind about loose and wild games. Pre-flop play is where good players make their money in these games. Post-flop, all the fish are getting the right price to chase. It is pre-flop that you're taking it to them. I just played in a wild game this weekend that was frequently capped pre-flop and at the flop. So many times, 4 to 5 people would see the flop for 4 bets, two would fold to a flop bet, another would fold to a turn bet, and the last would call the bettor down. Because these idiots were playing draw-type hands that have to hit the flop to continue. You're just not likely to hit very many flops with these hands, and now you've put in 4 bets for nothing. You can't even call the flop. Meanwhile, someone with as marginal a hand as KQ offsuit has flopped top pair and is betting the whole way. So what if one guy has an inside straight draw and has the proper odds to chase? Everyone else has missed completely, and the person who is happier about all that dead money is KQ, NOT the inside straight draw. Because despite the inside straight draw's positive EV post-flop, you still want to be KQ. KQ will drag the big pot more often than not. I saw this over and over again. Pots being won by hands as weak as top pair, garbage kicker. Huge pots due to all the dead money from people incorrectly seeing the flop with draw-type hands. Sure, chasers are getting great pot odds post-flop. Top pair still holds up more often than the chasers get there.

It seems like starting hands can be put into one of two categories: favorites and longshots. The favorites are the big pocket pairs and hands like AK and AQ. Longshots are everything else. Favorites should want longshots to pay the max pre-flop, because a lot of times this will be dead money post-flop. The one caveat is that you don't want to be dominated. So you should be careful with hands like QJ and the aforementioned K 10. AK and AQ, though...it may be correct to raise from any position with these hands if you don't think you're dominated. Even KQ. It is clearly correct to do so with AA, KK and QQ. Maybe even JJ and 10 10?

With draw-type hands, on the other hand, you really want to see the flop as cheaply as possible. I mean, you should HATE to have to put in two or three bets. Because the vast majority of the time you will flop nothing and have to give it up right there. You have terrific odds, but you have nothing to chase. Your dead money goes to someone else. This means that I would never raise with J10s on the button.

This may be old news to others but it's not to me. It took some reflection to come up with this. I have a greater appreciation for Abdul's stance, now. And I think I will start raising a bunch of limpers with AK offsuit [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img] .

[bernie]

understand, preflop errors are not as costly as postflop. preflop is before the biggest luck factor in your hand.

there are many ways to play a hand. and a key is knowing how playing one way affects other streets.

"Pre-flop play is where good players make their money in these games"

good players make their money on all streets. not just 1 part of the hand. most of the money is made/saved postflop. not preflop. although, preflop errors can add up.

understand, you can flop 2 pair and be behind, 1 on 1 to a player without a made hand. it's rare, but possible. (i posted that hypothetical hand aways back)

ive read and agree with much of abduls stuff. however, i wouldnt be raising a bunch of limpers with KTo. not the greatest play to do.

"This means that I would never raise with J10s on the button."

youre giving up some chips by not doing this at times. what would you raise on the button with many limpers?

play as you wish...

b