safe river fold?

Live 4-8 at the Commerce, 7 handed.

SB is LAGish postflop, always betting if checked to on the flop and turn, but never raised a hand preflop (50 or so hands played) and limping or cold calling into every pot.

Button is also very loose preflop, although he will raise and reraise with his premium holdings regardless of position.

Hero is UTG+1 with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop (10SB): 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero raises, all call.

Turn(10BB): 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls.

River(21BB): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB checks, Hero checks, Button hesitates and bets, SB check raises, Hero????

[me454555]

Cap the turn, unless button has exactly AK your good to go. Since you have 2 Ks its less likely he has AK. I think he's more likely to have a flopped set or 2 pair often enough to make capping the turn profitable.

You can toss this on the river once sb c/rs

[The Goober]

[ QUOTE ]
Button is also very loose preflop, although he will raise and reraise with his premium holdings regardless of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which means he is very unlikely to have AK, so at worst you are splitting with another K. Cap the turn and get SB's money in there. After you cap the turn, bet the river, and if SB still feels like CRing, you call getting likely 27:1.

As you played it, I would probably just curse quietly and call the river. Sure, you're probably beat, but you are getting 12:1 and you really under-represented your hand by just calling on the turn. You said yourself that SB is LAGish, and LAGs love to make moves like this, especially after button showed weakness and hesistated (sure, you and I know that he's not gonna fold there regardless, but that's why we're not LAGs).

If it went bet, raise, 3-bet on the river - then I'd probably fold.

Seems like an easy call. Big pot, and you have a good hand. Yeah, you might be beat, but then again, you might not be.