River Donk

[Scotch78]

Stats: VP$IP/PFR/WSD(AF-F/AF-T/AF-R)Hands
SB: 41/6.7/39(.8/.7/.7)267
UTG: 23/7.2/31(1.2/1.8/1.4)629

SB has made some odd (though not nutty), aggressive moves for someone with his passive stats. No signifant table reads on UTG.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Scott

[Nick C]

Hmm. Well, let's start with some combos from UTG:

AA = 3
KK = 1

AK = 6

QQ = 6
JJ =6

Hands like AQs (3 combos) and TT (3 combos) are also possible but are less likely than their combos indicate because of the preflop cap.

AK and QQ should probably be discounted slightly because of the preflop cap as well, but I'm still liking our chances, going into the flop action.

(It's possible too that, since UTG is facing SB with two cold preflop, he's capping lighter than usual and trying to get heads-up. But I don't really expect that that's what he's doing.)

Once SB calls UTG's flop bet, we should figure him for a gutshot, pair, OESD, or flopped monster he's slowplaying. We probably are ahead of SB, and there's a decent chance we're ahead of UTG too. Checkraising here kind of gives our hand away, but I'm thinking it might be best. UTG has already made his follow-up flop bet; I'm not sure we can count on him to fire with QQ or JJ again, into two flop callers. It does seem to me that the checkraise would be for value, but there is the question of whether, if we checkraise, UTG will ditch a hand he would have continued putting bets in with otherwise.

Anyway, given the way the flop actually went, I kind of want to donk the turn. I'm thinking QQ/JJ is going to seriously consider taking a free card here.

Following the flop and turn check-calls, the river donk looks good to me.

Anyway, I'm not really sure what's best on the flop and turn. I like your hand, but given your position, I don't know what the best way to play it is.

Whats wrong with betting on the flop with Top Pair/Ace kicker?

I'm assuming you are just trying to get the extra bets out of the SB here. Maybe check-raise on the turn. You are either going to get just an extra bet from the UTG if the SB folds, or maybe 2 extra bets if the SB calls you too... assuming you are ahead.

[bobhalford]

That's a pretty interesting way of playing the hand. It never would have occured to me to play it this way though it makes sense. I would have been raising the flop and betting the turn. Or else I would have called the flop and raised the turn. If called I bet the river and call a raise.

[BoxLiquid]

Can I ask why you decided to reraise with AK offsuit OOP against a 23 vpip player? I might of missed why. Is it pot equity or something?

After thinking real hard about it.. I don't think someone with jacks or queens will bet on the turn with this board. If he's smart he'll take a free card and hope he hits his gutshot.

So if he doesn't have QQ or JJ he must have something like AK, AQ, KK, AA. So.. Donking the river gains nothing.

Comments on my opinion and criticism welcome.

Posted in response to wrong user.

[ QUOTE ]
So if he doesn't have QQ or JJ he must have something like AK, AQ, KK, AA.

[/ QUOTE ]
He'll bet a better hand on the river everytime. I think the only thing he's raising on the river is KK. And he'll check with worse hands that he would call with almost everytime.

Here are his likely holdings.


[/ QUOTE ]
AA = 3
KK = 1

AK = 6

QQ = 6
JJ =6


[/ QUOTE ]
-Vs 9 of the combos make betting vs c/c makes no difference.
-Vs 1 of the combos betting costs 1 big bet.
-Vs 12 of the combos betting gains 1 big bet.

Clearly this is not 100% correct, but it's a great approximation that explains the OP's river donk.

[BoxLiquid]

[ QUOTE ]

He'll bet a better hand on the river everytime. I think the only thing he's raising on the river is KK. And he'll check with worse hands that he would call with almost everytime.


[/ QUOTE ]


I'm just wondering how do you know for sure if he'll call on the river with Jacks or Queens? Is it correct to call a donkbet when you're in villain's position with JJ or QQ?

Of course I'm not sure he calls. But he only has to call 1 in 11 times to make it profitable. Unless he can see hero's cards he's calling 1 in 11 times. Even if he will raise AA on the river and hero can never fold to a raise he'll still only have to call 1 in 3 times w/JJ,QQ to make betting better than c/c.

[SackUp]

So you went with the WA/WB play essentially.

I'd think about c/r the flop or turn so you can trap a bet from the sb. I think the turn is getting checked through too often as well.

I like a c/r on the flop and lead the turn. Then call down if raised.