|
|
#1
11-11-2005, 10:22 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Check Raising turn with straight and flush draw
PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, CO calls. Flop: (6.40 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls. Turn: (4.70 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls. River: (10.70 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button calls, Hero folds. Final Pot: 12.70 BB With not much of a read on any of these players, I'd like to know if my play on the turn was ok. My thinking was that I should build the pot with a open ended straight draw and flush draw. (I had CO on a pair of tens and button on pair of Aces, I expected both players to call the raise on turn.) 
|
|
#2
11-11-2005, 10:26 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Check Raising turn with straight and flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
(I had CO on a pair of tens and button on pair of Aces, [/ QUOTE ] With reads like that, you should turn pro. Seriously, fold pre-flop, bet out on the turn.
|
|
#5
11-11-2005, 10:37 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Check Raising turn with straight and flush draw
15 outs makes us 2.1:1 to have the best hand by the river. So in the best possible case (they both call), we still lose a little bit of value on each bet that goes in. If one of them folds, we lose a decent amount of value with every bet that goes in on the turn.
|
|
#6
11-11-2005, 10:41 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Check Raising turn with straight and flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
15 outs makes us 2.1:1 to have the best hand by the river. So in the best possible case (they both call), we still lose a little bit of value on each bet that goes in. If one of them folds, we lose a decent amount of value with every bet that goes in on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] How do you calculate that I'm losing value for raising on turn?
|
|
#7
11-11-2005, 10:51 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Check Raising turn with straight and flush draw
My assumptions are that we're always going to win when we hit our outs and we're always going to lose when we don't.
15 outs/46 unseen cards=0.326 to win by the river. (32.6%) If both guys call, the EV for us of every bet that goes in on the turn is: EV=(+2)*0.326+(-1)*(1-0.326)=-0.02BB. If one guy calls, the EV for us of every bet that goes in on the turn is: EV=(+1)*0.326+(-1)*(1-0.326)=-0.35BB. So if both call, it's pretty close but still slightly negative for us. If one calls we lose about 1/3 of a big bet for each bet that goes into the pot. Therefore, we want to get as few bets in as possible. Assuming we can't take the pot down without a showdown here (which we almost always can't), a free card is the best thing for us here since we lose the least when the lowest number of bets goes into the pot.
|
|
#8
11-11-2005, 10:54 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Check Raising turn with straight and flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 15 outs makes us 2.1:1 to have the best hand by the river. So in the best possible case (they both call), we still lose a little bit of value on each bet that goes in. If one of them folds, we lose a decent amount of value with every bet that goes in on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] How do you calculate that I'm losing value for raising on turn? [/ QUOTE ] If both villains call, you're getting 2:1 on your bet. The odds of making your draw are 2.1:1 (and you will lose if you do not hit your draw). Thus, you are losing .1 BB (in the long run) by betting the turn *IF* both villains call. If one of them folds, you're getting a much worse return on your investment -- you're only getting 1:1 on your money for what is still a 2.1:1 shot. That make sense?
|
|
#9
11-11-2005, 11:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Check Raising turn with straight and flush draw
Yes, clear to me now. Thanks a lot guys.
Edit: So if there was 3 other players on the turn, and lets just say they all would have called the raise, I would be getting 3:1 odds and thus making my raise correct?
|
|
#10
11-11-2005, 11:08 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Check Raising turn with straight and flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
Edit: So if there was 3 other players on the turn, and lets just say they all would have called the raise, I would be getting 3:1 odds and thus making my raise correct? [/ QUOTE ] I'm sure Redd is replying to this right now (and will beat me -- again), but since i've already stuck my beak in... If there were 3 other players on the turn *and* you knew that *all* of them would call, your bet would be +EV. However, that doesn't necessarily make it "correct". For one thing, if one of your 3 villains fold, your bet is no longer +EV. If Button reraises and knocks some people out, your bet is no longer +EV *and* you're paying extra to draw. Your bet or raise could also prevent the villains from betting the river, which could cost you some bets if your draw comes in. So, as Redd said, the best thing for you here is to get a free look at the river. Just check/call.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
