"luck" indicators...please help!

[prop]

over my first 36k hands 6 tabling 5-10 i won 17k, over my last 11k hands ive lost 10k. before i change my game i would like to know if im just running bad, it seems ther should be some info on statandard win rates for certain hands (aa,kk,jj,aks, etc.) and frequency and win rates from hands in the misc tab on poker tracker (2 pair, set, straight, etc.)

im interested due to the fact that over the last 10k hands i have gotten jj,qq & aks 130 times collectively and am losing money with that group which is impossible no matter how bad you play. i think some baseline numbers here would help us all sleep better at night and not tinker so much in down swings.

[droolie]

You had a 1000BB downswing in 11K hands? No amount of variance can account for that. You probably aren't that bad if you were a solid winner for 36K hands but you must have some major leaks to lose that amount of BB's that fast, namely waiting this long to retool your game.

[soko]

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i have gotten jj,qq & aks 130 times collectively and am losing money with that group which is impossible no matter how bad you play

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Impossible? It is very possible to play these hands incorrectly and lose money, ESPECIALLY with AK

[prop]

listen, thanks for the non help BUT to answer your retarded remark...i will play you every minute of every day for the rest of my life blindfolded if you let me start w/ jj,qq or aks on every hand...it is impossible to lose.

[prop]

im sure you're right but i also have some really bizarre stats like only winning w/ 2 pair 49%...this has to be WAYYYY off line but by how much and how much is it costing me (us) ...this is info that would help everyone.

[Dagger78]

The basic reply is 1000BB down in 10k hand is NOT luck. This can only be accounted for by incorrect play. Also you are probably a decent player winning 1700BB in 36k hands but probably not nearly as good as you think. I'm not trying to discourage you or put you down but you need to seriously look at your game from the bottom up.

[prop]

i never said i thought i was good!?!?! i said i thought *KNOW* im having bad luck regardless...jeezus f'ing christ! does anyone know, or care to know the expected win rate of 2 pair?? i do. i know 49% is low and the 53% i was acheiving over the first run was probably high but what is the actual baseline rate???

[winchips]

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i have gotten jj,qq & aks 130 times collectively and am losing money with that group which is impossible no matter how bad you play

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Impossible? It is very possible to play these hands incorrectly and lose money, ESPECIALLY with AK

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its also only 130 hands- anything can happen in 130 hands

[prop]

jeeezus f'ing christ!! i understand varience and sample size they have no relation to what im asking here. im asking what the baseline winrates are for certain hands so that in THE SHORT RUN one can see how far off they are. here, let me spell this out for you...if you were in the midst of a 200 bb downswing and you were getting and winning all hands 2pair or better at the baseline rate you would know you were playing bad and leaking chips somewhere BUT if you were getting less of these hands and/or winning at a lower than expected rate with these hands you would need not tinker w/ your game due to the fact tthat your loss could be explained through "bad luck" and not a leak! DO U UNDERSTAND A WORD THAT IS COMING OUT OF MY MOUTH.

[matt hooley]

I think the basic answer you're going to get is that such statistics take a very large sample size to converge and for now you should not worry about them but instead post specific hands/situations where you were confused to re-tool your game.