Low Pockets, Turned Set

[kamjah]

My first few hands at the table, and all i know is that villain has been calling a lot of big raises but folding to the river bets. My initial read here is that villain is continuation betting his AQ AK type hand so i re-raise him thinking my pockets are good. His instacall confuses me, what do you think he holds? And what would you do in this situation, and how would you bet it?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Hero ($34.79)
MP ($48.25)
Button ($51.03)
SB ($129.55)
BB ($42.04)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2.50.

Flop: ($6.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, Button calls $6.

Turn: ($26.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...?

[4_2_it]

Villain looks like an overpair or if your read is correct a over-played AK. There is a small chance he has a set, but after that turn card, you are pot committed.

You hit your miracle card and have less than the pot left. If you think villain will bet, you should check. If not push.

[guaranteedBluff]

I'd say he's got an overpair. Bet the turn strong (i.e. push) and hope to get his money in here. You can't be scared of 7/8, I think he holds this hand rarely in this situation.

[kamjah]

sweet, so i did the right thing by pushing

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
sweet, so i did the right thing by pushing

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[djoyce003]

since this guy tends to fold rivers I'd bet the turn.......try to get some more money in there. I'm not sure i'd try pushing though. If he has a whiffed AK he might call $10 but he won't call $24 and I think you have him drawing dead or at most to 2 outs. The only hands that call a push are TT-AA and of course a higher set.

All of this is highly read dependent....if you have a read on this guy that says he'll call a push go for it, but you could be sacrificing value if he's on whiffed overs.