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#1
11-04-2005, 12:45 PM
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Tough fold of bottom set!!
20/40 Full Party
Hero is SB w/ 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] EP2 limps, fairly solid but passive (20/7) MP2 raises, decent but slightly loose MP3 cold-calls, Hero calls, BB folds. 4 to flop Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero checks, PFR bets, MP2 calls, Hero check-raises, PFR calls, MP2 calls. So far, so good. Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Hero bets, PFR calls, MP3 raises(!), Hero calls, PFR 3-bets (!!), MP3 caps (!!!) Hero (faced with 2 more cold)...?? Pot is 16.5 big bets by my count. My thoughts: It was pretty clear that MP3 had an AJ straight, but PFR was v. tight preflop so already I was concerned that he had a set of Ks or Qs, and while I prob had the odds to call 2 more bets to fill up, I thought that this was more than offset by the chance that it would simply end up costing me at least 3 bets on the river to find out. 
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#2
11-04-2005, 01:07 PM
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Re: Tough fold of bottom set!!
i thought i was in the NL forum.. woah.
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#4
11-04-2005, 01:20 PM
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Re: Tough fold of bottom set!!
[ QUOTE ]
Hero (faced with 2 more cold)...?? Pot is 16.5 big bets by my count. My thoughts: It was pretty clear that MP3 had an AJ straight, but PFR was v. tight preflop so already I was concerned that he had a set of Ks or Qs, and while I prob had the odds to call 2 more bets to fill up, I thought that this was more than offset by the chance that it would simply end up costing me at least 3 bets on the river to find out. [/ QUOTE ] I think the most likely hands for both of them is AJ and guess you are drawing very live. At least often enough to make this an easy call.
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#5
11-04-2005, 01:26 PM
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Re: Tough fold of bottom set!!
I couldnt fold here. It might be correct, but I think one of these jokers has KQ here, and is playing it badly. The cold caller probably has AJ, so that means you need to catch a 10 or a 5, so, um, yeah, good fold.
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#8
11-04-2005, 02:10 PM
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Re: Tough fold of bottom set!!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i thought i was in the NL forum.. woah. [/ QUOTE ] Are you saying you think this is an easy calldown of 2 more cold and then any river action that may come? [/ QUOTE ] im saying CALL THE TURN... check the river... prob call one bet, fold for two, raise if you fill.
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#9
11-04-2005, 03:07 PM
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Re: Tough fold of bottom set!!
Hi Teddy,
Interesting hand. Here are some quick calculations based on hand ranges. I assumed that both players needed at least 2 pair to see the action we saw, and that if you have the best hand, you'll be able to show it down for 1 bet on the river: 1. assume: both players would have raised KK-TT, and can only hold KQ, KT, QT or AJ. In this case you are 34% to hold the best hand, and should call a river bet as well. The board pairing really doesn't help you all that much, as it frequently fills one of your opponents. Folding is a huge mistake. 2. Same assumptions, but EP can hold KK, QQ, or TT. Interestingly, the odds don't change that much. You are still 30% to have the best hand, and should call a river bet. Again, the board pairing doesn't change your odds as much as you'd like. 3. Both players have either KQ, or AJ: Now you are only 7.2% to have the best hand. If EP can hold a set, you're barely worse at 6.5%. Either way, you can STILL call the river if the board doesn't pair K or Q, but it's doubtful that you should call. Folding is probably correct. So... how tight are these guys? You say MP2 is slightly loose, so he seems to fit more into the earlier category where you are definitely calling down. You say EP is tight but passive, but have him raising 7% of his hands. He probably does not have a set. In other words, you are probably best to call the turn and call the river unimproved. If the board pairs the K, your hand has gotten better, but you are still a 3:2 dog and don't want to get 3-bet, so checking and calling may still be best, especially if you can go for an overcall, which looks likely. So, all told, call the turn, call 1 bet on the river no matter what it is. Finally... why didn't you 3-bet the turn? You are by far the favorite at this point, and EP may have a lot of hands that will call 2 cold... all the 2-pairs, plus all hands that include a J, plus perhaps AQ, AT... easy 3-bet. good luck. eric
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#10
11-04-2005, 03:17 PM
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Re: Tough fold of bottom set!!
Thanks good post -- in retrospect, i prob should have 3-bet turn...would have made the hand easier to play from there on out as I wouldn't have been faced w/ 2 cold.
Interesting Q: what's my line assuming I call 2 more cold on turn and see the river, which blanks. I check, PFR bets, and MP3 raises... I think i'd prob fold there...
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