Keep betting?

#1 11-07-2005, 01:47 PM

Similar situations - I am the preflop aggressor and post flop cards don't do me any favors ...

Hand 1
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Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG (poster) checks, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets ...

Does AK have enough showdown value or should I fire again on the river and try to pick up the pot?

Hand 2
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Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, CO folds, Button calls, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero ??

A continuation bet on a really ugly flop ... not sure if I can continue on the turn. It is conceivable to believe that they are claling with just unpaired spades .. what line do you take? Was betting the flop wrong?

Hand 3
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Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (11 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero ??

Is this a b/f or a c/c situation (folding to a reraise of course) ??

#2 11-07-2005, 01:51 PM

Hand 1 - No point betting the river. You are not folding a hand that you beat.

Hand 2 - Tough spot here, pot is kind of big so I might bet again, with that being the last money I put in the pot. Bet on the flop is standard.

Hand 3 - I probably bet/call this, but fold if it's two bets back to me. Someone will bluff or bet two pair here often enough that I think you have to call one though.

#3 11-07-2005, 02:00 PM

Trying out this grunching thing. I'm still a beginner too, so be gentle... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Hand 1. I probably take the free showdown, as there's a good chance he could be in with middle or low pair.

Hand 2. Bet. If you get raised, fold.

Hand 3. Check/call. With 4 players left you're probably beat, but the pot is big enough for a crying call. If it's raised or reraised back around to you I probably fold.

bottomset · #4 11-07-2005, 02:00 PM

hand1, the river bet is really bad .. you aren't getting called by a worse hand, and you almost never make a better hand to fold

flop and turn look fine

hand2: don't bet that flop when its 6handed, you aren't folding an A, and prob not a K either, check/call, or check /fold depending on the action

hand3: easy river bet, a T or 5 isn't that likely given how the action has been, and the first 2ppl to act will likely just lead out the river with a T, prob with a 5too

tiltaholic · #5 11-07-2005, 02:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hand1, the river bet is really bad .. you aren't getting called by a worse hand, and you almost never make a better hand to fold

flop and turn look fine

hand2: don't bet that flop when its 6handed, you aren't folding an A, and prob not a K either, check/call, or check /fold depending on the action

hand3: easy river bet, a T or 5 isn't that likely given how the action has been, and the first 2ppl to act will likely just lead out the river with a T, prob with a 5too

[/ QUOTE ]

what he said.

bottomset - since wookie locked your NC thread, i'm putting your NC in here. what should I change my forum name to? any thoughts?

#6 11-07-2005, 03:40 PM

Hand 1
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Any information on Villian? This always a tough one for me to decide. Against a decent opponent your pot equity is about 30% here so there is some showdown value in your AK. If there is any chance Villian will lose his nerve and fold a small pair to a bet then by all means bet away. If not (and most micro players will not) then just check the river through.

Hand 2
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This is really a tough hand. With 6 opponents you can be fairly certain that you are drawing to 2 outs plus back-door broadway. No matter how I cut it your pot equity is about 6%. You are correct to continue getting 26:1 for a single bet, however, your strong preflop hand has turned into a weak draw in this situation. Your only realistic hope is to spike a Q on the turn so I don't see any need to be aggressive in this situation. Realistically with such a large pot no one with an A or K is going to fold. I think you should just check the flop and call a single bet and fold to two.

On the turn A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] wasn't really that bad a card for you equity wise. This may be a bluff opportunity if you have the nerve. The problem is that there are two players in. The flop did give the odds for a gutshot to broadway to continue so one (or even both) could be on a draw with JT, QJ, or QT. It would be incorrect for a gutshot to call one bet but they probably will anyways. You will never fold an Ace with a single (or even two bets) but you might fold a King. I don't really like a check/ raise here (though I would be tempted to go for it if the pot was bigger). I struggling here but I don't think that a single bet folds anyone here so I think the best line is check and hope it is checked through. Fold if Button bets and UTG+1 calls. If UTG+1 folds you might raise heads-up and try to see the showdown for free.

Hand 3
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check/ call the river.

#7 11-07-2005, 03:48 PM

hand 1: if mp2 is a fish, you ain't gonna fold him on the river. he's may be holding a small PP here. Worst case is he's passive with the Q. Actually, with this pot, you may have some fold equity. I'm 50/50 on check or bet.

hand 2: I don't agree with the flop bet with Button and CO behind you. Button could be holding a small PP (I see cold calls a lot with these), but CO could easily have A-rag or K-rag (let alone a EPers waiting to c/r pre-flop raiser). On the turn it looks WA/WB. I'm /this/ close to checking. A bet/fold may be in order. It's a biggish pot, and I'm starting to think showdown.

hand 3: River: We see a T often here. Check and see the action. If button checks, laugh in their faces for not making extra pay on their draw! maahahahahaha

#8 11-07-2005, 03:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]

hand3: easy river bet, a T or 5 isn't that likely given how the action has been, and the first 2ppl to act will likely just lead out the river with a T, prob with a 5too

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
You don't see a T here among any of 6 players at this river???

#9 11-07-2005, 03:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1
------
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG (poster) checks, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets ...

Does AK have enough showdown value or should I fire again on the river and try to pick up the pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, just to be contrary, I am going to say I don't think a bet on the river is necessarily that bad here. There was a post in HUSH on this topic a while ago (of course I can't find it), and the conclusion seemed to be that betting the river here isn't as bad as it would seem at first glance. Thinking about MP2's hand range, there are three possibilities that make the most sense:

1. A weak Queen.
2. A small to mid pocket pair.
3. Another strong but UI Ace (AK, AJ, AT).

(Actually, it's been a while since I've played full ring, but these would be the most likely possibilities at 6-max...)

So let's assume that pretty much any Q will call your river bet. In that case you lose one BB.

Let's assume any unimproved Ace will fold to your river bet. In that case, betting is EV neutral unless your opponent has AK, in which case you win 3.75 BBs.

Next let's think about the chance your opponent has a small PP such as 5s or 6s. In that case, a call means you lose 1 BB, but a fold means you win 7.5 BBs. I think a small pair will fold here a decent amount of the time for fear of looking stupid at showdown.

Obviously, you will lose money betting here more often than you will win, but when you win you stand to win much more than you lose. So I am going to say if you've seen MP2 fold to a river bet much, you should go ahead and bet here. Am I crazy?

gopnik · #10 11-07-2005, 04:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hand1, the river bet is really bad .. you aren't getting called by a worse hand, and you almost never make a better hand to fold

flop and turn look fine

[/ QUOTE ]

What is the point of betting the turn here? The board is completely drawless, and whoever liked his hand on the flop beats us and not folding. Unless I have a read that the guy likes to peel on the flop with any 2, I check behind on the turn.

Ok, sorry, missed the flush draw. I guess betting the turn and getting a free showdown is ok here.
But I'd check behind on the turn if the flop was a rainbow.