Two Satellite Bubble Hands

Top four get seats to a super weekday, there was a little bit of cash for 5th and 6th but I'm completely unconcerned about that. The table had largely been weak tight, the larger stacks were bullying a little bit, but there was a lot of limping, small bets, and small raises going on. I've re-stolen twice from late position large stacks by pushing over their small raises.

The short stack who pushes in this hand has been fairly patient, pushing probably less than once per orbit on average.

***** Hand History for Game 2964141702 *****
600/1200 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 17048187) - Tue Nov 01 12:59:49 EST 2005
Table Super Qualifier(501338) Table 1 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: SteelyDan11 (15560)
Seat 2: dee2000222 (11060)
Seat 3: smgino (5825)
Seat 4: stevielimo (8006)
CO-1: monte_b (2592)
CO: Lilgiz71 (9310)
Button: CLaugh222 (15708)
SB: HERO (6729)
BB: Stupid_Flop (5210)
HERO posts small blind (300)
Stupid_Flop posts big blind (600)

Dealt to HERO [ Jd, Ad ]
SteelyDan11 folds.
dee2000222 folds.
smgino folds.
stevielimo folds.
monte_b raises (2592) to 2592
monte_b is all-In.
Lilgiz71 folds.
CLaugh222 folds.
HERO ???



The Villain in this hand has been especially weak tight, he was the top stack when the final table started and he's lost his lead by making weak attempts to steal and then backing down quickly. I don't feel like my stack is deep enough to fold to his push, but I also think his range is very narrow.

***** Hand History for Game 2964151028 *****
600/1200 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 17048187) - Tue Nov 01 13:02:53 EST 2005
Table Super Qualifier(501338) Table 1 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: SteelyDan11 (16160)
Seat 2: dee2000222 (10160)
Seat 3: smgino (6725)
Button: stevielimo (7106)
SB: monte_b (3792)
BB: Lilgiz71 (9610)
UTG: CLaugh222 (15708)
UTG+1: HERO (6429)
Seat 10: Stupid_Flop (4310)
monte_b posts small blind (300)
Lilgiz71 posts big blind (600)

Dealt to HERO [ Qd, Qh ]
CLaugh222 folds.
HERO raises (2000) to 2000
Stupid_Flop folds.
SteelyDan11 folds.
dee2000222 folds.
smgino folds.
Button raises all-in (7106) to 7106
monte_b folds.
Lilgiz71 folds.
HERO ???

Thanks for your help.

[Exitonly]

hand 1: push over the top, his 4BB push doesnt have much merit, you need chips to get the seat.

hand 2: just open push, you dont really want to entice them to push over the top like that. Though, it's not the worst if they do, and you gotta call now.

[pindawg]

Hand 1 is a pretty easy fold against a patient weak/tight player.
edit: I thought i read the BBwas 300. Seeing that is 600 changes the odds, I can't say that i'd fold but if i did call i wouldnt be happy about it.

Hand 2 is a must call. His pushing range here id' guess is AA-1010 AK-AQs, creating a situation where folding would bad (i think.. maybe some of the rocket scientists here can bust out their TI-83's)

[Rizen]

Keep in mind I'm no satellite strategy expert.

Hand #1 I probably push to isolate. I think as long as the BB doesn't wake up with a huge hand your odds are too good to pass up here. His range might be small, but provided the BB doesn't call, you're getting almost 2:1 here, and from CO-1 I can't imagine his range is so small that you're not getting the proper odds here.

Hand #2 I open push. I couldn't even consider folding this in your spot.

-Rizen

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
TI-83's

[/ QUOTE ]


83's?~!?? I hate that one. the 89 is the $$ calculator.

Thanks, guys. Yeah, I guess my real question on the second hand was whether I should have just open pushed. Guess it's a clear yes. My thinking at the time was that there had been so much weak tightness that a hand like AK might just flat call and then fold the flop. My plan was to push any non-A flop if called. That leaves me kind of short, but I'd had so much success stealing that I wanted to avoid a coin flip if I could.

Villain showed AK, which surprised me, given the way he'd been playing. I really thought he'd only do that with KK/AA. I lost the flip though :-(.

[Sam T.]

Hand One: Granted I wasn't there, but I'm not sure he's as tight as you do. He's got 4BB and in a couple of hands he's losing what little FE he's got due to the blinds. But it's worse than that (for him) because the big stacks are next up in the blinds, and they might call him just for fun. He's doing this with Ax, and any two broadway. Finally, the problem you have is that the big stacks are to your left, making stealing a bit more difficult. Call.

Hand Two: Open push, but if you don't call the raise. Your bet of 1/3 your stack looks incredibly weak. You're saying (he thinks) "I want the blinds, but don't like my hand enough to risk the tournament."

[ QUOTE ]
Finally, the problem you have is that the big stacks are to your left, making stealing a bit more difficult. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

The big stacks are easier to steal from in a satellite. None of them wants to risk better than half her stack calling, even if she's a slight favorite, because they don't need to accumulate chips. All they need to do at this point is keep their heads above water and wait for someone else to bust the short stacks. They've been pretty passive so far, that's part of why I'm hesitant to make this call- I've got a lot of FE against them right now, but I won't if I lose half my stack here.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Finally, the problem you have is that the big stacks are to your left, making stealing a bit more difficult. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

The big stacks are easier to steal from in a satellite. None of them wants to risk better than half her stack calling, even if she's a slight favorite, because they don't need to accumulate chips. All they need to do at this point is keep their heads above water and wait for someone else to bust the short stacks. They've been pretty passive so far, that's part of why I'm hesitant to make this call- I've got a lot of FE against them right now, but I won't if I lose half my stack here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. Never mind.

[JustPlayingSmart]

1) Fold
2) Call