Flush draw - appropriate aggression?

pokernicus · #1 10-29-2005, 09:05 PM

I played my draw aggressively, and was wondering if I made the correct decision.

Here was my rationale -- on the flop, I am getting proper odds to bet as long as at least two people call (assuming that I go to river). On the turn, betting may buy outs by getting hands like small pocket pairs or better aces to fold. And, if everyone calls, that's not so bad since I may hit the nut flush on the river and still get action because of the pot size.

Should I check/fold the river?

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, MP1 calls, Button folds.

River: (6.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Greg J · #2 10-29-2005, 09:24 PM

Flop is good. Check call the turn -- don't bet into 3 muppets, you don't have the equity. What you do on the river depends on the read you have on villian.

#3 10-29-2005, 09:30 PM

Flop play ok.
You shouldn't bet into 3 opponents on the turn. You dont have the pot equity. For this play to be profitable all 3 opponents must fold at least 30% of the time which combined with your pot equity of 20% makes this play profitable. But the wont fold 30% of the time, maybelike 5-10% of the time they all fold.

Check and call the turn.

Aaron_ · #4 10-30-2005, 08:24 AM

You don't have much room to be creative here on the turn. Your equity is only 0.88 BB by fourth street (assuming your ace is no good), and a raise from an improved or slowplayed hand drives down your equity even further. Also, forcing out an ace only buys you two outs, or about .19BB (if spiking it wins 100% of the time). You need to be able force all three opponents out more than 22% of the time to make up the 0.81 extra BB you paid for your ace. You lost money on the turn.

Don't get carried away in small pots - you frequently lose money.

(My math is correct about 80% of the time according to my calculations.)

#5 10-30-2005, 09:01 AM

i wouldn't bet on the turn. there is a danger of getting raised, which means u pay 2bb to see the river, which is a bad deal

#6 10-30-2005, 09:06 AM

I think you have to go with your reads on the river. With only one opponent left, and the pot being a reasonable size, I think you should attempt to bluff if you think there's any chance he'll fold. He might have been on a flush draw himself, have a low pair and figuring he's beaten now etc. Checking will almost certainly make you lose the pot, while betting has a decent chance of winning, unless he calls anything that is.

pokernicus · #7 10-30-2005, 03:38 PM

By the river I put MP1 on either a busted draw or a weak made hand like a small pair. If he's called down this far with a weak made hand, I don't think he'll fold on the river with one. So, if I bet, I'll only get called by a better hand. On the other hand, if he has a busted draw, I may actually have the best hand.

So, if I check, it may either be checked behind, or I may induce a bluff from a busted draw.

I checked the river, it was checked behind.

MP1 showed KJo and MHIG. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I didn't think that either UTG or Button had a Q since no one raised the flop. The players at this table generally seemed willing to fold (i.e., no real calling stations). The 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] probably didn't help anyone, so I figured that my turn bet could get the weaker hands to fold and get draws to stick around.

My reasoning wound up working in this case, but I wasn't sure if my reasoning was generally correct (or if I just got really lucky).

Nick C · #8 10-30-2005, 04:06 PM

If you check, will it often get bet anyway? If the answer is yes, then you really don't need to fold everyone out all that often to make a bet a good play. (I don't think you will fold everyone out very often on this board though, once you've been called in three places on the flop.)

On the other hand, the greater the chances are the someone is waiting to pop the turn, the less you should want to bet here.

Nick C · #9 10-30-2005, 04:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to go with your reads on the river. With only one opponent left, and the pot being a reasonable size, I think you should attempt to bluff if you think there's any chance he'll fold. He might have been on a flush draw himself, have a low pair and figuring he's beaten now etc. Checking will almost certainly make you lose the pot, while betting has a decent chance of winning, unless he calls anything that is.

[/ QUOTE ]

The two statement I put in bold don't match up.

I think Hero should probably check-fold or check-call, depending on how likely he thinks it is that Villain will have a busted draw and bluff with it.

Either line (check-folding or check-calling) can win the pot, though.

Edit: I do think a bet is good against specifically AJ (or any unimproved ace, really), but I'm thinking Villain probably won't have that hand all that often.

pokernicus · #10 10-31-2005, 03:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you check, will it often get bet anyway? If the answer is yes, then you really don't need to fold everyone out all that often to make a bet a good play. (I don't think you will fold everyone out very often on this board though, once you've been called in three places on the flop.)

On the other hand, the greater the chances are the someone is waiting to pop the turn, the less you should want to bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find that in these low-limit games, people are often willing to call a small bet on the flop with a marginal hand, but fold to a turn big bet if unimproved.

The board in this case is pretty dangerous, so if someone had a made hand, I would think that they'd raise the flop immediately to chase out the draws rather than wait for the turn. I didn't think the turn card helped anyone. So I thought a bet had a fairly good chance of making (marginal) hands better than mine fold, but keep the draws around. I was pretty sure no one had a Q. Someone with a T will likely stick around, but I think any small/mid pocket pair or another Ace would fold on the turn.

I'm trying to get a better sense for whether my reasoning is generally sound, or whether this hand was the exception where I got very lucky.

Also, this hand was played on Ultimate Bet. At the $1/$2 level, I felt that the quality of play was higher than what I saw at Party at the same level. From what I could gather opponents were willing to fold marginal hands on the turn, so fold equity actually meant something. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]