tough spot...

krishanleong · #1 10-29-2005, 10:14 PM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, 3 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

Turn: (2.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (4.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks planning on fold.

Problem on the line is all I have is a stat read. Villian is 61/18/1.1/43 over 777 hands. I'm probably a favorite on the flop. I'm not sure about the turn bet. And I'm not sure if I should call a river bet. I can't beat much but there is a flush draw out there that a 1.1 agression could bet on the river. Thoughts? Thanks,

Krishan

Lmn55d · #2 10-29-2005, 10:19 PM

hey man, I'm pretty sure that turn bet is -EV against a player with those stats. I think he raises a flush draw on the flop a ton and slowplays some of his made hands. If he just calls again here and you check the river he's gonna value bet a ton of his hands and bluff so it's gonna be tough spot. Thus I give up on the turn. The way you played it I would fold the river in a pot of this size.

ArturiusX · #3 10-29-2005, 10:19 PM

I think I just give up on the turn. Pot is small, if he called the flop he probably figures himself for a hand worthy of a showdown.

7ontheline · #4 10-29-2005, 10:27 PM

I've been trying to get away from these kinds of hands. All too often, I just end up spewing chips firing at this tiny pot. The problem is we've all seen flop peelers fold to the turn bet, so we bet the turn. Then they call and we're still clueless. Fire the 3rd barrel? By that time he's probably not folding. Sure, he could have just a draw, but you sure put a lot of bets in the pot to find out and I think over time it's not going to be profitable.

Anyway, I try not to bet into small pots OOP against guys with a big WtSD% unless I have something. It's not worth the aggravation. Sure, it's important to pick up small pots here and there but against these guys I just value-bet small made hands and watch their A-high calldowns. If I do take a shot at the flop, I give up on the turn. Fold the river, it's a small pot with a lot of scary board cards.

redbeard · #5 10-30-2005, 06:24 AM

7 made the points i was thinking. basically, i agree we've all seen opponents peel one no matter what they have. the turn bet is probably not correct, but given the previous statement i made i can see some arguement for a turn bet. by the time you get to the river this hand is over for you. check and pray he checks behind with a busted flush draw lower than king high otherwise, dump this thing on the river that as posters much better than i have said to bail on turn.

#6 10-30-2005, 06:53 AM

Even with the read, there's nothing wrong with checking the flop. If he bets, let him have it. No sweat, just consider it a BB lost and you're not much of a favorite if any at all. If he checks the flop, then you might want to bet the turn.

With these types, you have zero fold equity even though you don't want to give free cards when you have the best hand. If your hand is good, you'll never know it. The hand becomes very difficult to play OOP.