AA on a scary board. Can I raise this river?

Stealthy · #1 10-28-2005, 01:12 PM

MP2 has played every hand since he sat down 12 hands ago and could have anything and has shown no aggression in any pot. MP3 is a TA-P 18/12/1 over too few hands to really count.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 caps, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (11.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero

Given the pre-flop action I was sure I had been out-flopped but was calling it down. The river appears to have saved me but does put 4 to a straight out with a 3 flush on board. Raise?

sean c · #2 10-28-2005, 01:17 PM

Yes given the pre flop action i am raising.

gharp · #3 10-28-2005, 01:19 PM

I think you can raise this river. I think you could've raised the flop too.

sean c · #4 10-28-2005, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can raise this river. I think you could've raised the flop too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you raise the flop?

Weatherhead03 · #5 10-28-2005, 01:24 PM

With PF cap the chances of him holding a hand that has a ten in it are really low. Only one I can think of is TT and a small chance of A10s. Other than a ten you are behind AKh and that is a very small chance. I can see many other two pair hands or KK QQ JJ who all have a set that you are now ahead of. I raise the river.

Weatherhead03 · #6 10-28-2005, 01:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you could've raised the flop too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not a fan of a flop raise.

sean c · #7 10-28-2005, 01:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you could've raised the flop too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not a fan of a flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree if behind we likely have 4 to 6 outs to improve so i am certainly not folding anywhere and raising anywhere besides the river is spew imo. If we are ahead villian is drawing nearly dead and we certainly don't want him to quit betting.

istewart · #8 10-28-2005, 01:28 PM

Raising the flop to be the right move here. Heads-up this line is fine, but we'd certainly like to give MP2 a chance to fold his Q9 or J7 in this fairly big pot. Given the read it seems he will fold a piece rarely, but since we do have around 45% equity against an MP3 range of AK, JJ+ anyway I think raising is the play here, and that if it's a mistake it's a very small one.

Could be wrong.

sean c · #9 10-28-2005, 01:33 PM

I thought this was heads up until i read istewart's post and went back and read the op. I think 3-handed raising the flop is correct and the river is close between raisng and going for an MP2 overcall.

#10 10-28-2005, 01:33 PM

I would have raised on the flop to find out where I am. That would make the river raise question easier to answer.

EDIT: I would raise the river because I would be surprised he capped pf with a hand that had a 10 in it.