10/20...I can raise A-hi, how about folding top 2?

Surfbullet · #1 10-25-2005, 05:35 PM

Villain is 35/22/1.9 with 38% WTSD.

LAG, but plays pretty well. I don't enjoy having him next to me but there are plenty of fish sooo...

10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

Catt · #2 10-25-2005, 05:51 PM

You're going to have to explain this fold to me.

Surfbullet · #3 10-25-2005, 06:01 PM

I couldn't come up with any hands that I beat that didn't cap the turn but raised the river.

Surf

Catt · #4 10-25-2005, 06:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't come up with any hands that I beat that didn't cap the turn but raised the river.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Another K with kicker low enough that the board pairing on the river means he's losing only to AK but was losing to many other K's on the turn (provided you didn't flop 2-pair)?

Chobohoya · #5 10-25-2005, 06:07 PM

I'm starting to think that any value in this river bet is going to be outweighed by the times he c/r and this happens. I'd advocate just checking behind here.

beachbum · #6 10-25-2005, 06:11 PM

There's a lot of hands he's got here that you beat. Even if there aren't you don't have to win very often for a call to show a profit. He plays KJ like this, J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], or any King as he now has 2 pair and beats your possible QJ. An important question to ask is 'how strong does his hand have to be to c/r the river?' or 'will he bluff c/r a missed draw?'. This call should be solidly +EV considering this opponent and the pot size.

Surfbullet · #7 10-25-2005, 06:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't come up with any hands that I beat that didn't cap the turn but raised the river.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Another K with kicker low enough that the board pairing on the river means he's losing only to AK but was losing to many other K's on the turn (provided you didn't flop 2-pair)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hm... This guy is a thinking LAG, though I may be giving him too much credit.

In his shoes, what hands do you put me on after the turn action? Given that, do you c/r the river with just a K?

Surf

Wynton · #8 10-25-2005, 06:18 PM

If he's a thinking LAG, does that mean he's capable of bluff/raising the river?

Catt · #9 10-25-2005, 06:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't come up with any hands that I beat that didn't cap the turn but raised the river.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Another K with kicker low enough that the board pairing on the river means he's losing only to AK but was losing to many other K's on the turn (provided you didn't flop 2-pair)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hm... This guy is a thinking LAG, though I may be giving him too much credit.

In his shoes, what hands do you put me on after the turn action? Given that, do you c/r the river with just a K?

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

A wide variety of hands, all of them containing a K, Q, or J, (or AT), with some weight towards K-hands and some weight towards non-K hands with a draw (think QT, AJ, etc., add in some [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s or [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s for good measure). If he's a thinking LAG, then his C/R doesn't have to work often at all if he's holding a bare K, because (1) you'll fold sometimes; (2) when you don't fold he'll chop against a lot of hands; (3) when you don't fold you'll show a hand like QJ or AQ sometimes, etc. I can't say I would make this check-raise terribly often, but I think I probably make it less often than I should in a pot this size with a Hero capable of folding to this line.

Surfbullet · #10 10-25-2005, 06:23 PM

Good analysis, Catt.

I feel like I should have called now, he doesn't know that my 3betting standards on this board are something like KJ+, he just knows an aggressive player reraised him on a drawy board.

The fact that a K counterfeited QJ on the river is important, too, and something I didn't notice at the time.

I'd be pretty impressed if this was a river bluff, I think his raise is for value - and it's just a question of what range he puts me on. I seem to have overestimated that somewhat which changes things greatly.

Surf