should i just fold preflop next time?

newhizzle · #1 10-23-2005, 08:44 PM

UTG+1 is loose passive, no other reads

Party Poker 15.00/30.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 folds, MP1 raises, 1 folds, MP3 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero dosent know what to do so he caps, 1 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (22.00 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero is like word and bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, MP1 folds, MP3 caps, Hero calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (18.00 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls and prays for the board to pair.

River: (21.00 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 folds, Hero looks at the pot, pukes, and calls hoping for a split.

Final Pot: 23.00 BB.

bad?

W. Deranged · #2 10-23-2005, 08:50 PM

You should fold this pre-flop. I think TT is the borderline for hands to play facing a pre-flop raise and reraise. I've seen it advocated that JJ can actually merit a three-bet cold-call. QQ and up are obviously caps. 99 is not strong enough, and is WAY to likely to have to improve to a set to merit playing for that price.

Post-flop is fine. River is a real longshot but I can't fault you for calling for peace of mind. Maybe UTG+1 flopped a straight or something.

I also think there's a somewhat reasonable chance that you were actually drawing to only one out on the flop. MP3's line is quite consistent with QQ or TT.

jason_t · #3 10-23-2005, 08:51 PM

Fold preflop.

#4 10-23-2005, 08:53 PM

fold pre-flop [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I think I would just check out on the flop and then call down, You could already be allmost dead if anyone hold JJ QQ (1 outer or a split), probebly cry-call the river, hard do

toss · #5 10-23-2005, 08:55 PM

I think capping 99 outta SB is bad. Calling depends on how likely you think the limpers are going to call a 3-bet and how often MP1 is going to cap.

I'd have trouble folding the river with like $631 in the middle, but come on! Is UTG+1 really going to 3-bet the flop after its been 3-bet PF, then lead the turn and the river without a flush?

JacksonTens · #6 10-23-2005, 09:00 PM

Fold Preflop?? No way! I can remember a thread of Shant's ages back where he had 88 capped 4 way. As it is Whizzle has five players with him. I think that is definately enough overlay. Plus if he's going to play it he may as well cap it. But I would have called three cold.

I think this is a call. Surely the implied odds are there.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

W. Deranged · #7 10-23-2005, 09:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Plus if he's going to play it he may as well cap it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not true. In fact, capping it is significantly worse than calling in my opinion, as we are out of position, are unlikely to be able to win this hand without going to showdown, and we actually want the limpers to stay in to give us an overlay as we go to the flop. (That is, if we decide to play.)

[ QUOTE ]
Surely the implied odds are there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Implied odds decrease as the size of the bets get bigger pre-flop. The number of bets that go in post-flop are not going to be that much bigger than if this were only one or two bets pre-flop. (You will get a few more chasers, but this is not a giant effect). And you are paying triple the price to see the flop.

Think of it this way:

Implied odds = f(price of bet faced, number of bets going to go in) = number of bets going to go in / price of bet faced

Price of bet faced (the function P) is an increasing function of the size of the pre-flop action.

Number of bets (N) going to go in post-flop, is also an increasing function of the size of the pre-flop action (s).

BUT, P increases linearly with the size of the pre-flop action (every additional bet/raise means you have to pay one more bet to see the flop), but N does not (every additional bet/raise slightly increases the size of the post-flop action, but not in direct proportion and not with slope 1).

For the mathematically inclined, we can say:

N'(s) => P'(s), for 0 < s.

P''(s) < 0 (I'm pretty sure this is true... I'd be interested in others' thoughts.)

If we look at F'(s), we have:

F'(s) = d/ds (P(s)/N(s)) = (P'(s)N(s) - P(s)N'(s))/(N(s)^2)

We notice that P(s) is generally larger than N(s) in any normal pot, and we deduce that F'(s) < 0 under normal circumstances. In other words, our implied odds decrease the more we have to pay pre-flop.

JacksonTens · #8 10-23-2005, 09:39 PM

Deranged,

First of all when I said he may as well cap it. I did state, I myself would call, but I don't think capping is very far off, and definately not significantly! Think about this.. With a pot this big, someone has a big hand that is most likely going to cap it anyway, so whizzle may as well seize the initiative and do it himself.

In reference to him playing at all.
with 5 players in he's already getting 5:1 all he need is about 8 more BB for him to have the implied odds. I think with this many runners getting so aggro PF this is definately there.

I just can't find a PF fold here, its just too weak.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BigBrother · #9 10-23-2005, 09:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If we look at F'(s), we have:

F'(s) = d/ds (P(s)/N(s)) = (P'(s)N(s) - P(s)N'(s))/(N(s)^2)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, what he said!

gh9801 · #10 10-23-2005, 09:45 PM

I'm just curious about how you move from 3/6 to 15/30 in like 2 weeks which seems pretty amazing. The next coming of bicyclekick?

Anyways, fold preflop and I don't even think it's close