Routine KK?

[SomethingClever]

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (10.70 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button folds.

Final Pot: 12.70 BB

[waffle]

What a river card. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] If this were a HU pot (the BB defended, checkraised the turn, bet the river) I call and hope that the villian has a medium-high pocket pair. In this hand the BB's actions are consistant with a draw and the river card + his bet makes me believe he has me beat. Without a read I fold the river and kick the cat if I folded a winner.

[Jeff W]

I think you might have a fold, but I'd have to play with the percentages.

Assume Button never folds AA or better and always folds a worse hand if you call.

Win=1/12.7=.079 is the approximate breakeven point.

Is P(A)*P(B)&gt;.079?

P(A)=chance BB is betting a worse hand and P(B)=chance that Button has a worse hand than KK.

[dhaimon]

I would 3-bet this turn because I know I have button beat, I'm actually more worried that BB might have a 3.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
I would 3-bet this turn because I know I have button beat, I'm actually more worried that BB might have a 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know this?