bad flop call?? good value raises with 44??

#1 10-19-2005, 01:34 PM

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (13.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB

Ok so the flop call is pretty questionable, but I knew either CO (42.5 VPIP) or BB would call, giving me the 3 calls I would need to cold call my 44. After the 3-bets and constant aggression by Villain, put him on a big pair or AK. I'm wondering if my value raises on the flop are correct (10 outs to set or straight), and if so, should i be raising for value on the turn as well based on pot equity?

Also can I call on the river getting almost 15:1? I know you're not supposed to fold big pots for 1 bet, but the only hand I'm beating in the range I put him on is AK.

Thanks,
Steve

milesdyson · #2 10-19-2005, 01:44 PM

fold preflop, call flop, call turn, fold river.

#3 10-19-2005, 01:46 PM

so when am i supposed to raise my draws for value if not here?

Koss · #4 10-19-2005, 01:47 PM

On the flop raise your draws with 3 or more opponents already in. On the turn you need 5 opponents!

car ramrod · #5 10-19-2005, 01:51 PM

fold the river.

#6 10-19-2005, 01:52 PM

guess i need to reread sshe

about 17 more times.

Aaron W. · #7 10-19-2005, 01:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok so the flop call is pretty questionable, but I knew either CO (42.5 VPIP) or BB would call, giving me the 3 calls I would need to cold call my 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

If BB is 75% to call preflop, then you've got about 14% (6:1) chance of failure, assuming that 42.5 VPIP is his *COLDCALLING* VPIP. The preflop coldcall is bad.

TheKentock · #8 10-19-2005, 01:56 PM

You raise your draws when your equity exceeds the percentage of money you are putting into the pot.

For example, you get AJ of spades on the button. everyone calls preflop, and you see a flop of 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The SB bets and everyone calls, you should raise. Your chance of making the best hand here are much, much higher than the 10-15% of the total bets that you are putting into the pot on the flop.

With a bet and only one call, however, you are not at all in the same situation. With only 2 opponents, calling is better, since you are 16% to hit your hand on the turn and have to put in 33% of the bets to get there. You have odds to call, but you don't have the equity edge to raise.

Someone help me out here if I'm not explaining this well.

Fantam · #9 10-19-2005, 01:58 PM

I think that you meant to say that your preflop cold call was questionable. Anyway, you have explained that you expected CO and BB to also call, so that makes it more reasonable.

I dont think that you had the value to raise the flop, with only 2 opponents remaining in the hand. So I think that calling the flop bet would have been better.

Again you did not have value to raise the turn with only 2 opponents.

On the flop, your chances of improving to a straight or trips by the river were about 2:1. So you really needed at least 3 opponents to call to be able to raise for value.

On the turn, your chances of improving were about 3.5:1, so you needed about 4 opponents to call, to raise for value.

For both the flop and turn, you would have been calling because the pot was big. In other words, your expected share of the pot (pot size multiplied by the %age of times that you expected to win) was bigger than the cost of calling.

When BB bet into 2 opponents on the river, I doubt that your small pair would be good sufficient times to make calling worthwhile, despite the pot being big.

If you had been heads up, then I think calling one bet on the river in a big pot would be correct, in case your opponent was bluffing. However, I think that BB would be less likely to bluff into 2 opponents.

POKhER · #10 10-19-2005, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so when am i supposed to raise my draws for value if not here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi mate,

3456 = OESD.

I see you wanted to raise for value, You're correct in thinking you can raise draws for value but this is when your equity is more than what your putting in.

you had 8outs(For arguement sake we assume they are all clean and you'll win if you hit).

8 outs = 4.75:1 with one card, or 2.2:1 with two cards.

2.2:1 to hit, or 1 in 3.2

100%/3.2 = Your equity which is 31.2% Now this is fine if you were VS 3 others. But one folded.

So you actually against 2 outs. Meaning you each put in 33%

As your putting in 33% but only win %31.2 your raise isn't for value so you must call(Your pot odds dictate this).

Keep posting,
Read ssh atleast 4x if you havent [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

SEE EDIT BELOW - YOU HAD 2 OUTS TO SET

Ok now that was wit 8outs, you actually had ten i just realised.

With ten outs on the flop your 3.6:1 to improve with one card, Or 1.6:1 to improve with 2 to come.

1.6:1 or 1 in 2.6
100%/2.6 = 38.4% you have a small edge as your putting in 33%.

You can raise for value.

Nh, but fold preflop and fold the river... you wont win on the river.