Which play with AK has the highest EV? Live 8/16

brick · #1 10-18-2005, 02:00 PM

Live 8/16

UTG open raises, bad mp calls, I 3-bet AKo. BB calls 2. others call. 4 players, 12 SBs

Flop: 633.

BB bets. He is a thinking player who wouldn't cold call with junk so I put him on a pair. Probably not AA or KK.

UTG and MP fold. I call. 2 players, 7BB.

Turn: T

Should I have raised the flop for a free card?
Or play the flop as I did, call the turn and fold the river unimproved?

#2 10-18-2005, 02:03 PM

If you're planning to go to the river no matter, and you're sure that raising will buy you a free card, then raising the flop has higher EV, no (it costs you 2SB vs. 3SB)? Am I missing the point?

brick · #3 10-18-2005, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Am I missing the point?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think so. Raising the flop with overcards for a free card isn't correct too often in a low limit game. Just need some confirmation that this is the correct time to do it.

#4 10-18-2005, 02:32 PM

I can't see much downside. There aren't that many low limit players who will lead into you on the turn just to thwart your free card plans.

W. Deranged · #5 10-18-2005, 02:36 PM

The key point is that you have to be confident a free-card raise will work. Note that against a pair you only have 24% equity or so. When you raise for a free card and get three-bet, you end up putting in 1 BB more usually than you would simply having called the flop and the turn. Hence, a free card raise is actually risking 1 BB to earn .5 BB, and so you need to be confident it will work more than 2/3 of the time.

If you are confident it will, then you should raise. A villain who calls two cold and bets out a flop like this is making a kind of weak lead (this does not look like a bet-three-bet situation). He will almost certainly be afraid of AA or KK and often will only call your raise even with a hand as good as JJ or even QQ. If villain really wanted to go to war on this flop and is solid, you likely would have been check-raised. Hence, I think a free-card raise is going to work here a substantial majority of the time, and so I'd say to go for it.

brick · #6 10-18-2005, 02:39 PM

good post. thanks.

Fianchetto · #7 10-18-2005, 06:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Should I have raised the flop for a free card?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's fine, and probably the cheapest way to play the hand. Probably the best way too against a non-tricky opponent who is just leading trying to protect his pair.

[ QUOTE ]
Or play the flop as I did, call the turn and fold the river unimproved?

[/ QUOTE ]

Also fine.

Opponent knowledge helps, only reasonable draw is 54, but you said he probably wouldn't call preflop with that. So in all likelyhood he has a pair, and you are drawing.

Another idea (against a thinking opponent who is capable of folding): If you really want to try to take this pot away, you could call flop, raise him on turn with that being the last money you put in unless you improve. It's more expensive to try this, but if you think you could blow him off a 6, or something like 77/88/99, it is more in line with how a big pair would play it. Against a calling station it is just wasting chips.

Edit: On second thought, a concern is that you said he is a thinking player, so he should checkraise you on the flop with hands like medium pairs, the hands we're putting him on. When he leads into the 3 of you, could he be looking for heavy action with a monster?

Alex/Mugaaz · #8 10-18-2005, 07:00 PM

I really think this is a waste almost all the time, people will call here even if they "know" they're beat, it's like they need to see it.

W. Deranged · #9 10-18-2005, 07:18 PM

Random addition:

I think it is very important to remember that if you check the flop you should be CHECKING the turn. Your read that you are up against a pair is extremely powerful. I recently advocated following through with a bet on the turn, but the fact that you can very confidently fold the river to a bet from villain here makes this a good situation to NOT follow through with a bet on the turn.

lil feller · #10 10-18-2005, 09:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Live 8/16

UTG open raises, bad mp calls, I 3-bet AKo. BB calls 2. others call. 4 players, 12 SBs

Flop: 633.

BB bets. He is a thinking player who wouldn't cold call with junk so I put him on a pair. Probably not AA or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't read any responses yet, so if i'm repeating somebody elses thoughts, I apologize.

How well do you know the BB? This bet means one of two things. Either he has 66 or A3s and is looking to trap the two hitchhikers between the two of you, or he has A6s or TT-77 and is trying to protect his pair. You said he was a thinking player, and i'm assuming that the two of you have some history together. That being the case, a thinking player would expect you to bet if checked to on the flop, and would then c/r with TT-77 or A6 to force the two in the middle to face two cold. If he's smart enough to know that, but is still leading, i'd be more inclined to believe he has a big hand, and if you're going to continue, calling is the way to go.

If he doesn't think like that, and he may very well be betting one pair you have to ask yourself how likey he is to 3 bet w/ it. If he's relatively passive, raise and check the turn. If he's aggressive and will likely 3 bet or call and then donk the turn, just call.

You're evaluating the situation correctly, but this one is entirely player dependant. If it were me, I would think that his lead is one that is looking for action, i'm not raising.

lf