Hypothetical Hand, QQ top set river plan

DavidC · #1 10-18-2005, 05:45 AM

You're playing live at a B&M, maybe 10-20, or 20-40. Considering that the lowwest limit spread is 5-10, and there are some very weak players at the 10-20, this isn't so bad... We'll assume 20-40 (which would play similar to a 3-6 online game).

There are two villains in this hand. The guy directly to your left is an LPP. He's really unbelievably horrible, and loves to call, but he's a nice guy, chats up the table, and is a local businessman. He's always welcome here. Franky, I feel bad about calling him a villain.

The other guy, who does deserve to be called a villain, is a slightly slightly loose, aggressive, professional player. Post-flop, he's a little more passive against you, because you're a tight maniac who bets maybe just a little too much.

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Hero is UTG with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and raises. LPP is in UTG+1 and calls, a loosish player in MP calls, and villain on the button three-bets. Blinds fold, you cap, and everyone calls.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 players, 17.5 SB.

You bet, LPP calls, MP calls, villain raises, you re-raise, LPP calls, MP folds, villain caps, everyone calls.

Turn: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3 players, 15.25bb.

You bet, LPP calls, villain calls.

River: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero?

POKhER · #2 10-18-2005, 05:47 AM

I bet and call a raise, Nh.

#3 10-18-2005, 06:07 AM

Grunching...

Hero bets. My only fear would be that the real Villian has AK here to make his str8, but I don't think he would have capped that flop with only AK (or would he bet that strong draw knowing our table rep?) I'd still be the river and call a re-raise. To slow up only shows weakness (A lesson I'v been learning the hard way recently).

DavidC · #4 10-18-2005, 06:09 AM

I think the money play here is to check-call vs the LPP and to checkraise the villain.

Paxosmotic · #5 10-18-2005, 06:11 AM

Huh? There's about a 1 in 50 chance that the LPP has AK here, and the Villain has AA or KK. I bet this every time.

POKhER · #6 10-18-2005, 06:13 AM

why check call/Raise? And how can you C/C LPP, But CR the villan?

I dont want to give a freeshowdown to anyone with missed draws/Crap hands.

I also don't want to check/raise a opponent with AKo as i'm not folding my hand.

I think betting and calling a raise is bet, Maybe even 3bet but thats very debateable.

AK here, Do you think villan raises 4way for equity?

lautzutao · #7 10-18-2005, 06:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the money play here is to check-call vs the LPP and to checkraise the villain.

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I think this is the weak play that exposes you to the least amount of risk. Checking this through with the probable best hand is a nightmare. I'd bet here with the intention of calling LPP and 3-betting LAA

#8 10-18-2005, 06:24 AM

If Hero bets just a little too much and villian slows down because you're a maniac, there's no way villian caps this flop with AK or any unmade hand for that matter.

I bet\3bet. I expect AQ, AJ, KQ, JJ, AA, KK, a lot.

DavidC · #9 10-18-2005, 06:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Huh? There's about a 1 in 50 chance that the LPP has AK here, and the Villain has AA or KK. I bet this every time.

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IMHO, LPP will bet the river with JJ,TT,66,44, QJ, JT, AK, and 98. We only lose to AK and 98. I'm going to give all pairs an equal probability, and all non-pairs an equal probability. I'm also going to say that he'll likely only three-bet with AK, but call a checkraise with any other hand that he bets. By "likely" I mean that we have to call a three-bet, but that there's a really good chance that we'll lose. I'll also say that he will call two cold on the river with many of the hands that would call one bet with.

Given this information on the LPP, I don't know if checkraising him is a good idea or a bad idea... so I chose check-call, but I don't know the exact equity vs his betting range: I hadn't crunched the numbers on it, but just now I just plugged it into pokerstove, and the stove tells me I have a 42.857% chance against his range, so it means that checkraising the LPP is not good (though betting would be best HU because he'll probably only raise AK and he'll call with SO many more hands).

I'm also going to say that LPP would not try to checkraise villain with the nuts once I gave up initiative and villain had previously been calling down...

Our reads are the same on the villain, which gives him 50% KK and 50% AA. My guess is that villain will bet if we check to him, unless the LPP bets into him, in which case he'll call for the overcall, as he thinks he's ahead of us on the river now.

Given the villain's likely hand and action (though I'm not 100% sure that he will bet with KK), we should always checkraise the villain if it were HU... in fact, if we knew that he would never bet KK but always bet AA, and that he would always call with both, and our reads on his hand range are accurate, I'd still say checkraise this river even though it's the same EV as betting, just to build an image so that we can check marginal hands to him in the future and be confident in folding if he bets.

I honestly think, though, that villain will have a tough time putting us on AA or a set after we check, and therefore he'll probably bet out with both AA and KK, and since LPP will call two cold (remember I said that he was HORRIBLE, not bad) with a lot of hands, and once he checks we're really only afraid of 98 for the straight, I feel that the money play:

... is the checkraise the villain, and to check-call vs the LPP.

(I just ran another stove sim. I kept the same hand range on LPP, but changed the board to make it QT762, so that we only lost to 98 in his range, and it shows that he has about a 25.397% chance of having 98.

--Dave.

Edit: [censored], fuckity, [censored]-[censored]! LPP could have K9!

Nick Royale · #10 10-18-2005, 06:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the money play here is to check-call vs the LPP and to checkraise the villain.

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I guess you're checking beacause you're sure Button will bet his AA/KK/AQ for you if LPP checks. I can see the point if we were actually fearing the holding of LPP, but since we have absolutely no reason to do so I think it's just bad poker risking this getting checked through.