Turn call...

krishanleong · #1 10-16-2005, 09:36 AM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (7 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB raises, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls

I thought I had enough outs. Agree? Flop checkraiser is 48/28/2.9/44 over 3836 hands. He will open with 82o and will cr/be agressive with any piece of the board. He is tricky (will bluff/semibluff). I don't like him much but sofar we are about even.

Caller is a station. 68/15/.3/61 over 258 hands. Will call the flop with 1 over no draw.

Krishan

me454555 · #2 10-16-2005, 09:44 AM

HU I think I call here but when sb c/red the flop he trapped you and co. He's gotta know that his flop c/r has zero chance of winning the pot UI so I think he's c/ring a real hand. The 5 just completed a couple of draws and you're overcard outs aren't necessarily all clean. You're only getting 7:1 which is slightly better than what you need to get if all your outs are clean. The presence of the station behind you gives you a small buffer but he is also likely to fold the turn given sb's show of strenth. Overall I think you have about 4 outs after discounting and you're getting only 7.5:1 (on average) to call.

Spicymoose · #3 10-16-2005, 09:45 AM

Hmm, this is close. If CO raises, our odds are shot. Plus, we could potentially be drawing dead right now, or at least be reverse dominated.

We are getting around 9:1 or 10:1 with implied odds assuming no raise behind us. I think maybe I fold though.

GetThere1Time · #4 10-16-2005, 09:51 AM

I'm sure it's close. 8.5:1 with the station calling behind you plus the bets we make up on the river. SB doesn't sound like the type of player who would c/r here with a monster so outs are probably clean. I think the problem comes in when the SBs hand improves on the turn or one of our cards helps him. J9, Q9, 65, 45, 55 are all in his range given the flop action, correct? Personally, I tend to let it go on the turn and stay out of trouble, but like I said, I think it's close.

disjunction · #5 10-16-2005, 09:56 AM

I don't think this is really close. You're 99.5% to be behind, as you know, and an additional 25% of the time you have no outs. Also, the cards you think are outs may wind up costing you more money on the river.

krishanleong · #6 10-16-2005, 10:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're 99.5% to be behind, as you know

[/ QUOTE ]

This is untrue. He could play air like this.

[ QUOTE ]
and an additional 25% of the time you have no outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you talking about? Are you saying 25% of the time he has 2 pair or a set and has me reverse dominated?

Krishan

7ontheline · #7 10-16-2005, 10:50 AM

I'd fold the turn. HU against this LAGtard I could call but with CO in there (even though he could easily have nothing) there's too much chance you're drawing pretty thin, I think. Of course, HU you don't have proper odds to call because it would be a small pot. Whatever.

Spicymoose · #8 10-16-2005, 10:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]

What are you talking about? Are you saying 25% of the time he has 2 pair or a set and has me reverse dominated?

[/ QUOTE ]

25% is a little high IMO, but he could easily have 78, J9, Q9, 45, 65, 96. There are plenty of other holdings he could have, but here are a few where you have 0 outs.

twowords · #9 10-16-2005, 11:05 AM

If this is not an instant fold, then my game must need work. You have nothing to show down, even against these guys. You are not closing the betting.

If you really put him on nothing or a draw, you would raise this turn (only if the other guy can be raised off a crap pair I suppose). But with Q-high it's just not a good spot.

Trix · #10 10-16-2005, 11:15 AM

It´s pretty brave that you doesn´t discount your outs much at all.