Turn Decision

Loose 20-40 at the Commerce.

Old Asian Man (AMA) appears pretty tight and is sitting to my right. I've played with him 40 minutes and his only action besides folding is limping twice and folding to flop bets. Everyone else in the hand is really loose and fairly passive when faced with reasonable aggression.

One limper to AMA who raises. I coldcall with 88. 4 others call. 6 to the flop.

Flop: Q83 rainbow. Checked to him, he bets, I call, 3 others call.

Turn: J putting up two hearts. He bets, I raise, 2 callers, he 3 bets.

I???

[daryn]

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I???

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should have raised the flop

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I???

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should have raised the flop

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Agreed and fairly undebateable I think. What do I do know though?

[Brom]

Just curious as to why you slowplayed on the flop? The pot is pretty big already and it's multiway.

There are a boatload of straight draws that this type of table could have, and that you need to charge them for. The slimmest hands like backdoor flush draws, pocket pairs and Ax type hands, will probably fold for one bet anyways. It could also help to better define AMA's hand.

I understand that you could be waiting to the turn to raise (wrong play IMO, but I could see that being a reason you didn't raise the flop), but you need to remember that there is no guarantee he will fire again either.

EDIT:
I realize I didn't really answer your question here. The way you did play it, I think you almost definetly have to call. You will be beat by JJ or QQ like 90% of the time I think, and probably get outdrawn another 5% of the time. But the pot is much too large, and theres a chance he could play AA this way (?). If you're certain that he's so tight he wouldn't 3-bet without top set here, then by all means ditch it now and don't waste the two bets.

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Just curious as to why you slowplayed on the flop? The pot is pretty big already and it's multiway.

There are a boatload of straight draws that this type of table could have, and that you need to charge them for. The slimmest hands like backdoor flush draws, pocket pairs and Ax type hands, will probably fold for one bet anyways. It could also help to better define AMA's hand.

I understand that you could be waiting to the turn to raise (wrong play IMO, but I could see that being a reason you didn't raise the flop), but you need to remember that there is no guarantee he will fire again either.

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I waited b/c I was stuck a rack, wanted a big pot and knew that these guys would probably call with gutshots and one pairs on the turn for two bets also.

The play is to raise the flop. No doubt. I'm still curious what to do on the turn in this spot though...

[Brom]

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I waited b/c I was stuck a rack, wanted a big pot ...

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A feeling I know all too well. It also seems that every time I think back in these situations, I'm regretting the greedy play I made and vowing to never do it again.

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EDIT:
I realize I didn't really answer your question here. The way you did play it, I think you almost definetly have to call. You will be beat by JJ or QQ like 90% of the time I think, and probably get outdrawn another 5% of the time. But the pot is much too large, and theres a chance he could play AA this way (?). If you're certain that he's so tight he wouldn't 3-bet without top set here, then by all means ditch it now and don't waste the two bets.

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Replying to your edit: I'm not sure whether he is so tight as to only play top set here. I've seen him play for less than an hour so I am not confident that I can fold... I'm primarily an online player though and maybe this is an easy laydown for some during live play? In any event, iI you're calling a river bet anyway, are you sure you don't like a raise?

Also, I am getting outdrawn more than 5% of the time... Gutshots and open enders are probable.

[roy_miami]

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and knew that these guys would probably call with gutshots and one pairs on the turn for two bets.

The play is to raise the flop. No doubt.

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Why?

[Brom]

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In any event, iI you're calling a river bet anyway, are you sure you don't like a raise?


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The problem I think is that if you raise and he does have the top set, you're going to have to call 3 bets now to see a showdown instead of two. If he does have AA he might fold it, and you'll get one less bet out of him. It looks to be a situation where if you raise, you're going to lose the max when behind and win the same or less when ahead. You can charge those draws a little more, but the difference in the size of their mistakes is more negligible now that the pot is this size. I'd also like to point out that a raise from you (if he pays attention to you) isn't very believable. How could you cold call a raise PF with 9T? And JJ or QQ you would reraise?

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Also, I am getting outdrawn more than 5% of the time... Gutshots and open enders are probable.


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True. Maybe about right if they are all on the same draw, but not likely I guess. This fact I guess leans even more to the fold side of the coin, as you will have to be right an even higher percentage of the time to compensate for the times when one of them will outdraw you.

[mc1023]

with two callers still behind, I would capp and re-evaluate on river.

for some reason I think there's a good chance your hand is good here.