Draw on Turn, Lost

#1 10-14-2005, 04:00 PM

No real solid reads, SB seems like a donk, seen every flop. Button seems tight.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) converter

Hero ($197)
Button ($290.65)
SB ($207.40)
BB ($132.80)
UTG ($408.55)
MP ($45.80)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, Button calls $8, SB calls $7, 1 fold.

Flop: ($26) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $14, SB calls $14, Hero calls $14.

Turn: ($68) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $14, SB raises to $66, Hero ?

KowCiller · #2 10-14-2005, 04:11 PM

As played I think you've gotta muck the turn. Why no continuation bet on the flop?

KoW

Kyriefurro · #3 10-14-2005, 04:11 PM

Well.....you have 15 outs, not all of which are clean. I think your flush outs are good. The question is, how tainted are the straight outs. And the answer depends mostly on how aggressive SB is post flop.

I can see a few hands SB would play like this:
AT, TT, 78, maybe 67. If he's really dumb, we can add KT, QT, JT and maybe 9T to the mix.

Your straight outs are good against most of these hands, so say they're 50% good? That would leave you with 12 outs or so. Plus there's a chance your K is good if it hits too. Pot is a little better than 2-1, which, when combined with the fact you could get the rest of SB's stack if you hit, makes this worth calling.

Big question is, what do you do if Button re-raises?

#4 10-14-2005, 04:14 PM

I had been doing it a lot, needed to change things up a little.

I kind of like checking a flop when I have a decent draw, observant opponents won't really give you credit if it hits the turn and you've been aggressive.

#5 10-14-2005, 04:20 PM

Oh no, I got reads mixed up. The CRer is the solid, tight player, the silly $14 better on turn is the donk.

Kyriefurro · #6 10-14-2005, 04:23 PM

That makes me almost like the call better. A solid player is more likely to have TT or AT than 67s (although the later is possible). That means your straight outs are more likely to be good.

ericlambi · #7 10-14-2005, 05:00 PM

I think price is just too high to draw here . . . you're paying over 3/4 pot with only one card to come. Combine that with the fact the SB could possibly have 78 or Adxd, I think you just fold and look for something better.

#8 10-14-2005, 05:47 PM

Though at first glance it seems outrageous to call this...

[ QUOTE ]
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 6s 4c Td 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd 7d 13 29.55 31 70.45 0 0.00 0.295
Ts Tc 31 70.45 13 29.55 0 0.00 0.705

[/ QUOTE ]

If we're against TT, we're a 2.4:1 dog. We're getting 2.2:1 on the turn call. Including implied odds, we're +EV vs. a set.

If he flopped the straight, we're a 3.4:1 dog:

[ QUOTE ]

Kd 7d 9 20.45 33 75.00 2 4.55 0.227
8h 7h 33 75.00 9 20.45 2 4.55 0.773

[/ QUOTE ]
If he flopped the straight, though, then our implied odds are definitely there for getting villain's whole stack, even if the flush hits, because villain won't suspect the runner runner. We're getting better than 4:1 on this call if we include villain's stack.

I think this is clearly a call. I wouldn't have realized it without running the #'s, though. Anyone still disagree? I haven't considered the action behind us, but how big of a factor should that be?

edit: apparently it should be a factor [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

#9 10-14-2005, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you're paying over 3/4 pot with only one card to come.

[/ QUOTE ]
no we're not

#10 10-14-2005, 06:01 PM

I figured solid had the straight or flopped a set.

I folded, solid player showed the nut straight, donk had some weird flush draw, they got it all in on the turn, diamond hit the river, donk gets to play a little longer.