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#1
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Running Bad: A Perspective (LC)
I've been playing for a living for a while now. I have a family of four that I support playing poker while I finish off my last year of law school. I've got great job prospects for after school and I would never consider poker to be a long-term viable career for me. But it has paid the bills and my results have been very solid over the last 6 months.
I've often talked about "running bad" or having a "downswing." This has usually ment that I had a couple days in a row where i dropped 2-3 buyins. Or, a week or so were I'd end each session down a buy-in. I play about 10k hands a week if that puts these swings in perspective for you. Then, 3 weeks ago after making my mid-september cash out i began what I have now discovered to be a REAL downswing. Not just a few bad sessions, but a legitimate, honest to god dehabilitating downswing. Over 20k hands I am down 12 buyins. I have had: [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Set over set 11 times [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] KK v AA all-in preflop 9 times [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Set v. suited TPTK who hits runner-runner flush 5 times (3 times with very deep stacks that got all-in on the flop or turn) [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] An abormally low number of sets with low PPs Much of these occurences just happened to come to be when stacks were deep. I'm sure I could list more statistical improbabilities. Myself and 2 other players that I trust and respect have poured over my pokertracker DB and found no major leaks in my play. There are always things to work on and I learned a lot from this process but I was by no means hemmoraging money through bad play. This is a REAL downswing. If I was a live cash game pro this would amount to a losing year I suppose. I share this only because I think at times in these forums there is a remarkable naivety concerning what constitutes a real downswing, what type of win-rates are actually sustainable, etc. On the positive side, i believe i will come out of this a better poker player, with a more marked detachment from results and a clearer understanding of what type of fluctuations are possible in the outer margins of winning and losing. Unfortunately, too boot, after playing tilt-free poker during this hailstorm of improbabilities, i decided to take a shot at some bigger games (chasing losses. I know, i should probably go to GA) and my bankroll now lays in tatters. Luckily, like any good player should, i have living expenses stored up. But now I have to build up my roll as I can only live on savings for so long. You guys have helped me immensely over the last year or so and I attribute the 150k hands I played at 8ptb/100 over 3 different limits in large part to that. So, may you all run well! I'll be back to the 100 and 200nl games to give swolfe misery soon enough. |
#2
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Re: Running Bad: A Perspective (LC)
I'm in one myself, and this post does help me put things in perspective. I'm only down 7buyins in 8k hands though(after 30+k with 9bb/100) losing with set vs runner runner straights in pots around 4buyins and the likes several times, AA v QQ on AxxQ etc [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but I'm learning how to handle it.
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#3
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Re: Running Bad: A Perspective (LC)
Hope it ends soon dude.
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#4
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Re: Running Bad: A Perspective (LC)
Beset, hang in there my buddy. Hopefully you'll be on your feet again soon.
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#5
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Re: Running Bad: A Perspective (LC)
stay cool and it will solve itself. gl.
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#6
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Re: Running Bad: A Perspective (LC)
Thanks everyone! Just waiting on my rakeback for september to arrive so I can start bonus whoring and playing 50nl 6max and maybe some LHE and SNGs. Its a trip to have gone from playing fairly high (I was solidly at 2/4 6max back in June when some life bad beats, some tilt and a more conservative bankroll management philosophy put me back down to 1/2 and .5/1 NL) to where I am at today. This job just isn't for the faint of heart.
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#7
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Re: Running Bad: A Perspective (LC)
[ QUOTE ]
I'll be back to the 100 and 200nl games to give swolfe misery soon enough. [/ QUOTE ] I don't plan on sticking down here long...I've already doubled what was left of my bankroll [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#8
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Re: Running Bad: A Perspective (LC)
If you honestly think you played your A game poker throughout that entire downswing... I would find a new site to play on... Was this accross several sites, or just one?
I cannot imagine being on a downswing for 20k hands, after i played the best possible poker i could have played. Are you absolutely positive there isn't a leak there? I could see one.. Possibly, *TRY TO stop going all in preflop with KK. However about the other ones, there simply isn't anything you can do about them |
#9
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Re: Running Bad: A Perspective (LC)
Well, to some extent or another we all have leaks. This process has helped me identify some spots where i still overplay overpairs, semi-bluff a little too hard with modest draws, etc. But none of that accounts for the downswing. Really, I was TRULY open to the idea that i suck at poker and had just been running good for 150K+ hands and I enlisted others to help objectively determine if this was the case and the consensus is no. I've experience, however statistically unlikely, a genuine downswing of biblical proportions. Atleast I've got one more rakeback payment on the way! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#10
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Re: Running Bad: A Perspective (LC)
[ QUOTE ]
If you honestly think you played your A game poker throughout that entire downswing... I would find a new site to play on... Was this accross several sites, or just one? I cannot imagine being on a downswing for 20k hands, after i played the best possible poker i could have played. Are you absolutely positive there isn't a leak there? I could see one.. Possibly, *TRY TO stop going all in preflop with KK. However about the other ones, there simply isn't anything you can do about them [/ QUOTE ] Are you trying to say online poker is rigged? A 20K hand downswing is pretty bad but not hugely out of the ordinary and definitely possible. |
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