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  #1  
Old 11-24-2005, 04:47 PM
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Default Clarification of Odds

From SSH I believe that I have deduced that with 2 cards t o come and drawing to an open ended straight I need to have pot odds of 4.75/1 to break even.
Now, on P94 of Jones' Winning LLH I see an example of such a draw. However, I am confused in that the advice given doesn't seem to take into account pre-flop bets and just tells me to bet taking into account the flop bets, i.e. Jones says that on the flop 2 people call, you raise, bettor makes it 3 and one or two of the others call and we should cap. I understand this but am confused by the fact that Jones seems to ignore the pre-flop bets when he says that since I am getting 2 or 3/1 on the flop bets I should raise.
Am I mis-reading/understanding this or does Jones really ignore the pre flop bets in his calculation?
Which is the correct methodology, pre-flop and flop bets or just flop bets when calculating odds?
Thanks.
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  #2  
Old 11-25-2005, 04:10 AM
TaintedRogue TaintedRogue is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 46
Default Re: Clarification of Odds

[ QUOTE ]
From SSH I believe that I have deduced that with 2 cards t o come and drawing to an open ended straight I need to have pot odds of 4.75/1 to break even.
Now, on P94 of Jones' Winning LLH I see an example of such a draw. However, I am confused in that the advice given doesn't seem to take into account pre-flop bets and just tells me to bet taking into account the flop bets, i.e. Jones says that on the flop 2 people call, you raise, bettor makes it 3 and one or two of the others call and we should cap. I understand this but am confused by the fact that Jones seems to ignore the pre-flop bets when he says that since I am getting 2 or 3/1 on the flop bets I should raise.
Am I mis-reading/understanding this or does Jones really ignore the pre flop bets in his calculation?
Which is the correct methodology, pre-flop and flop bets or just flop bets when calculating odds?
Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds of making your straight by the River are 2.18:1, so you need to have implied odds of at least that much to break even. This is not taking into account those times someone will outdraw you after you make your hand on the Turn.
When taking into account implied odds, you count the money already in the pot, those bets that you estimate your opponents will put in on the Flop, Turn & River v. the money you will put in on the Flop, Turn & River.

This is not the way to play limit hold'em.

If you flop an open ended str8 draw, you take into account the money you have to put in to see the Turn card v. the total money put in the pot.

Now the odds of you making your hand on the Turn are 4.88:1.
There are 47 unseen card/8 outs = 5.88
You will make your hand 1 of those times, so the odds against you making the hand are 4.88:1. Therefore, so long as there are 5 bets in the pot for every 1 you have to put in on the Flop, you will see a slight profit long term, even if nobody calls you on the Turn and River. This is not taking into account those times someone will outdraw you.

When considering whether to raise on the Flop, you must take into account the chances of being outdrawn, as you are raising based on your odds (2.18:1) of making you hand by the River. You need at least 3 opponents and I prefer 4, which increases the chances someone could have suited cards. Since this is a probability, I prefer the Flop to be made up of 3 different suits. Now the money you are putting in on the Flop v. your opponent's money is 1:4, which is greater than the odds (2.18:1) of making your hand by the River.

So, when you have JT and the flop comes Q,9,7, of three different suits, you are drawing to the nut straight. In these kind of instances, you can raise on the Flop when you have 3 opponents, as your intentions are to go to the River, in an effort to make your hand, and, you have the best draw. So the bets put in on the Flop are based upon your odds (2.18:1) of making your straight by the River.

If you do not make your straight on the Turn, whether you call to see the River card, is based upon your odds of making your hand on the River: 46/8 = 5.75; 4.75:1.
In almost all cases, if you had raised on the Flop and had 3 callers, there is going to be sufficient money in the pot on the Turn to warrant calling to see the River card.

So, as long as there are 5 bets in pot for every one you have to put in on the Turn, you will be making a +EV call.
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  #3  
Old 11-25-2005, 02:50 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 505
Default Re: Clarification of Odds

I haven't read the book, but you are correct in general. When computing pot odds you consider all the money in the pot, not just that contributed on this round.

Of course, to make your decision you must also consider the implied pot odds from future rounds, but that's a separate calculation.
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