Do you count a fold as an "out"?

SlackerMcFly · #1 10-08-2005, 02:56 AM

Hypothetically, you have 8 outs after the flop and are HU against a LAGish player after everyone else folds. He has you covered by 100 chips. Villain bets an amount that worries but doesn't scare you.

Are you ~18% to improve your <open straight> name your poison here.

Or, are you ~20% factoring in the 9th "out" you might gain by pushing and/or betting an amount that you are mildly confident that will induce a fold by the villain?

Would it make any difference at all if on the bubble or early in the game to you?

I can't say why this came up, and I don't have a picture of a rabbit with a looter on his head. Just curious if this is a factor in your thinking.

Shalacka

runner4life7 · #2 10-08-2005, 02:58 AM

If I read this right its the definition of a semi-bluff. You dont make it an "out" but when figuring out the EV of the play you of course factor in the % of time he will fold.

Daliman · #3 10-08-2005, 03:05 AM

No. Outs are just that; cards you can hit to win. What you are talking about is fold equity.

Jman28 · #4 10-08-2005, 03:06 AM

There are bluff outs, as in you have T9o on a 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] board, and you have your straight outs plus you will bluff when a flush hits (you put him on top pair). But that's not what you're talking about, I think.

You are talking about when you almost have odds to call with no particular bluff outs, but you think you may be able to induce a fold later. There is such thing, but I've never seen it referred to as adding an extra out.

You can call without odds, especially in position, when there is a chance you will be able to sense weakness later on and bluff.

Basically, you are making a -EV play (calling without odds) in order to set yourself up for a bigger +EV play (bluffing, for example, on the turn for 2/3 pot when he will fold 1/2 the time).

SlackerMcFly · #5 10-08-2005, 03:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You are talking about when you almost have odds to call with no particular bluff outs, but you think you may be able to induce a fold later. There is such thing, but I've never seen it referred to as adding an extra out.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty close to the situation I was thinking about. Great response!

What if you are in position and are contemplating a push instead of a call? Is this enough of an out to change your decision one way or the other?

bawcerelli · #6 10-08-2005, 03:54 AM

well then you can't bluff him out of the hand if he calls and you'll have to rely on "real" outs to hit to win. the fold out in this case is basically what dali said, fold equity. splitting hairs i guess.

Jman28 · #7 10-08-2005, 04:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]

What if you are in position and are contemplating a push instead of a call? Is this enough of an out to change your decision one way or the other?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's semibluffing. You have to estimate your fold equity in that case, and have 2 ways to win (him folding or him calling and you hitting).

adanthar · #8 10-08-2005, 04:46 AM

In an 11: No, and doing this is very, very bad.
In a 33: No, and doing this is moderately bad, but you will occasionally run into somebody you can pull this off on.
In a 109: It depends on a case by case basis. Proceed according to bet size and player type.
In a Step 5: Your database will tell you, young padawan.

Deuce2High · #9 10-08-2005, 04:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In an 11: No, and doing this is very, very bad.
In a 33: No, and doing this is moderately bad, but you will occasionally run into somebody you can pull this off on.
In a 109: It depends on a case by case basis. Proceed according to bet size and player type.
In a Step 5: Your database will tell you, young padawan.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about a Step 5 Higher? For those of us who 20-table them, of course (I do just for the rakeback).

PS. I didn't read any of this post at all, just Adanthar's response because he's hot in real life.

PPS. I have no idea if Adanthar is really hot in real life or not, but the previous post script sure was a fun read, wasn't it?

pergesu · #10 10-08-2005, 08:22 AM

Sure, that's just basic fold equity I think.

You have JTo, villain has AQo, and the flop is Q94 rainbow. You check-raise all in.

Let's just say here that 30% of the time villain will lay his hand down, and 70% of the time he calls. Your equity in the hand is 100% when he folds obviously, and 36% when he calls (PokerStove holla).

So your total equity in the hand would be
.3 + (.7)(.36) = 55.5%

fwiw I don't know if any of this is right. It's just some stuff I've been thinking about lately, mostly applied to bubble play (basically coming up with an easier way to determine pushes in-game).

Anyway the point is it's not extra outs, just extra equity...which we've always called FE. Basically it's just a weighted average of your equity when he calls and when he folds.