Misguided River Bluff? What should I have done instead?

tonysoldier · #1 10-07-2005, 07:36 PM

Villain is 13/10/2.5 over 7000 hands winning high limit player on Party. We have an extensive history, and I assume that he knows I am a winning player (around 18/13/1.8 or something). Spewing??? What should I have done if so?
Party Poker 100/200 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 5 folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

#2 10-07-2005, 07:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 13/10/2.5 over 7000 hands winning high limit player on Party. We have an extensive history, and I assume that he knows I am a winning player (around 18/13/1.8 or something). Spewing??? What should I have done if so?
Party Poker 100/200 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 5 folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

[/ QUOTE ]
If you think the villain is the type to lay down 88-JJ in this spot than I like the raise on the river. If the villain is not the type to fold these hands on the river then all you have is a crying call.

mc1023 · #3 10-07-2005, 07:43 PM

I can't see him folding a better hand here, if you were showdown bound and wanted to look him up I would bet the river and fold to a raise.

I can't see you having him beat with the description given.

#4 10-07-2005, 07:44 PM

I doubt he folds anything that beats you on the river for one more bet. I would likely call the river, but it's probably a leak. He'd play any pair this way right? What about AK, AQh? AK is the only thing in his range that you beat, and a good player is probably checking the river with it here. I say a fold on the end is the best play.

#5 10-07-2005, 07:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt he folds anything that beats you on the river for one more bet. I would likely call the river, but it's probably a leak. He'd play any pair this way right? What about AK, AQh? AK is the only thing in his range that you beat, and a good player is probably checking the river with it here. I say a fold on the end is the best play.

[/ QUOTE ]
I dont like the idea of folding on the river getting 11-1 with any chance to win the hand. Given the way the hand played out I will admit I see no way 66 can win in this spot so based on my judgement the hero should fold but I also know that my judment is not correct more than 92% of the time, so i call.

elindauer · #6 10-07-2005, 08:24 PM

I think this is an ok bluff. He may fold JJ-TT, and since you are probably going to call anyways, you only need to make him fold a better hand 1 time in 12 rather than 2 in 11. That's a big difference.

Working against you, he's going to be highly suspicious of your claim to have the flush, and most big hands (QQ-AA) would have raised the turn. This play will work better if you sometimes wait for the river to raise some of these monsters as well (I do this, do you? he knows your play well).

Naturally if he calls and turns over TT, you don't make this move next time.

good luck.
eric

vmacosta · #7 10-07-2005, 11:22 PM

I'd love to say that I'm capable of folding this river...I think its the right play but I'd prpbably never do it. Raising seems very unlikely to work but pot's big enough that its not terrible. Why is a flush draw so unbelievable elindauer?

flawless_victory · #8 10-07-2005, 11:33 PM

seems like an easy fold here...
i know folding is not as fun as raising, but losing money is not as fun as winning money, so its a tradeoff.

steveyz · #9 10-08-2005, 12:00 AM

I don't see any hands value betting this river folding to a raise.

I just call, or better yet, fold.

elindauer · #10 10-08-2005, 10:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd love to say that I'm capable of folding this river...I think its the right play but I'd prpbably never do it. Raising seems very unlikely to work but pot's big enough that its not terrible. Why is a flush draw so unbelievable elindauer?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's just that there are so many unsuited hands that a pfr who raises 66 in EP can hold, that the bettor is going to be very suspicious when this aggressive player claims to have rivered a flush.

For example, we can assume this guy raises AK in EP. Well, that's 12 unsuited hands, 3 suited hands in the wrong suit, and only 1 suited hand in the right suit. So, ignoring the action, it's 15:1 against him having AKs in the right suit. He also raises at least 66, 77... AA, which adds 54 more unsuited combinations he could have raised preflop...

It's not that him having a flush is impossible. It's just that, against an aggressive opponent, there's going to be enough doubt on this potential river bluff that your opponent is not going to want to fold a made hand AK or better. That's not to say that he won't fold, just that there is going to be a fair amount of doubt in the villain's mind and that works against his bluff attempt.

Getting 12:1 on the bluff though, I think it's a reasonable move.

my 2 cents.
eric