WEAK?

mc1023 · #1 10-07-2005, 09:59 AM

preflop raiser is 55-40 and 1.78/2.50/1.25 aggression

basically he/she is the fish and the reason everyone is playing right now.

should I have bet this flop?

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $30.
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 raises, 1 fold, CO (poster) calls, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (15 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets, CO folds, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (9 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

River: (9 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, SB folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11 BB

Turning Stone Pro · #2 10-07-2005, 10:06 AM

Chop it up with UTG's AK.

I don't think I three-bet from the BB with all those players, with a hand that is not made (i.e, AA-->QQ). So, this would have changed my entire analysis.

That being said, I think you played the rest of it fine, IMO. You certainly have to check the turn, and UTG's turn check smells like AK to me.

TSP

mc1023 · #3 10-07-2005, 10:19 AM

usually I wouldn't 3bet in this spot too often either but figured If i can get a fold out of UTG and the fish capped it kicking also the CO who's a poster out. It COULD possibly come back to me for a 2-3 handed pot which is what I would much rather prefer than a large field with this hand.

I'm assuming by UTG you mean MP1, because UTG folded on the flop.

AviD · #4 10-07-2005, 10:31 AM

I don't think you are moving AK or AQ off the hand and in fact may get raised, and any pair is probably raising your flop bet. Turn check looks fine as well. And check/calling the river is your best line once it is double paired.

I like the PF 3-bet, the only semi questionable is the flop call. You could be hurting bad and facing a sick redraw even if you hit any of your kings, and still could be behind severely if you hit an A or Q (Q improving AK to bway). Could be weak-tight of me, but when SB calls MPs bet, I'd probably just be done with it. You are getting 8.5:1 on a call, where you are going to have no idea where you stand and could very well be behind right now (marginally or severely, but it is doubtful you are ahead IMO).

mc1023 · #5 10-07-2005, 10:46 AM

I don't think AK and KK is likely out there in this hand, note if UTG had AK I'm quite sure he would've come in for a raise being a TAGgy kind of guy, his limp smells more like a small pair to me and wants to see the flop guessing its going to be 4-5way.

and on the flop, I don't think there is anyway I can fold getting 17:1 for my call.

The thing was I could've shown a lot of strength in this hand with a flop bet on that kind of board and since I'm going to be calling a bet on the flop anyway figured it might've been worth a shot.

There is CO who's in the hand as a post, UTG limped with a smallish pair, SB called with any decent two, and MP1 is a fish so hell if I know what he has. Think a flop bet would've told me clearly how many outs I have on this board and if im up against a monster or not. Anyone think any point in following up with a continuation bet on the flop?

AviD · #6 10-07-2005, 10:57 AM

I think your only concern for AK/KK is from MP1, but being he is so agg, this is obviously decreased significantly.

[ QUOTE ]
Think a flop bet would've told me clearly how many outs I have on this board and if im up against a monster or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if anyone calls, where do you think you stand? What if someone raises, how are you planning on proceeding?

What hands at this point are you ahead of? Granted some limpable hands you are way ahead of and can probably push out with a flop bet. With an aggressive MP1 behind you, you can get raised by a wide range of hands (perhaps that's a reason for betting) and push out some hands, including small/medium pairs. But what hands of his are you ahead of that he's do this with? A9s? KQ? If he has a small/medium pocket and raises, that opens your outs.

I agree if you plan on calling a bet here, I prefer betting and hopefully MP will raise and clear out the field of any potentially better hands, but anyone with a J or T is certainly staying, anyone with KQ or 89 is likely staying, and anyone with diamonds is likely staying. The other benefit is if you get 3-bet and it's two more back to you, I guess you can find a fold there. Or if you check and it comes back raised.

Not an easy hand to play here, and granted you getting good odds, but what are you drawing to within those odds other than a non-diamond K? Best case, your A and Q non-diamond outs are good, as well as your non-diamond K outs.

mc1023 · #7 10-07-2005, 11:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So if anyone calls, where do you think you stand? What if someone raises, how are you planning on proceeding?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on where the calls came from, my play would be different.

If the call came from MP1 I wouldn't be worried and figure my A/Q/K diamond or not are probably outs.

if the call came from UTG, I would put him on a medium pair or AJ possibly a str8 draw. I would basically be looking for a K on the turn or shutting down.

if the call came from CO or SB, those are the two guys that worry me the most since they are the most likely of the crowd to be holding a J or a T.

but seeing how MP1 is a complete monkey and would've raised this flop with even a gutshot, I wonder how the hand would've gone if I had bet out and MP1 had raised clearing the field to me and him.

[ QUOTE ]
The other benefit is if you get 3-bet and it's two more back to you, I guess you can find a fold there. Or if you check and it comes back raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I bet and its 3 back to me, its an easy fold imo.

If I had checked and it was raised back to me, also an easy fold.

Both situations I would not know where i am in the hand and could be drawing dead or to 3 outs, one or two of each could already be gone.

TimM · #8 10-07-2005, 11:54 AM

I'd bet the flop and hope MP2 raises. The pot is big and you win it a lot unimproved if you can get it heads up. A 40% PFR will have a lot of hands you dominate. I don't know why everyone thinks he has to have a hand like AK here. He is going to be raising PF with any ace, any PP (and you have 14 outs against the ones he doesnt cap PF), any two 9 or higher, any suited high card, etc.

mc1023 · #9 10-07-2005, 01:27 PM

This was what I was thinking after the hand had played out, bet and give MP2 an opportunity to clear out the field and spot the monsters.

Results:
Hero has Ah Qh (two pair, jacks and tens).
MP2 has 9d Kc (two pair, jacks and tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 11 BB.

amulet · #10 10-07-2005, 01:52 PM

3 betting AQs out of position in a raised pot can't be right (even suited vs several opponents). you are often dominated and now will act before the preflop raiser.

you missed the flop, and the texture of the flop has str8 draws, flush draws, the board paired, and cards that are likely to have hit other players. you have no hand no draw. 2 overcards in a raised pot with a board that probably hit one or more of you MANY opponents. absolute fold.

the turn tells you that everyone is scared of the jacks.

the river, is ok, given the size of the pot, i hope for you he had AK.