10K hand analysis

[pdparv]

So I have just logged my first 10K hands on Poker Tracker. I play mainly 200NL, with 400NL, and 200NL 6 max mixed in, as I have been trying to get my short handed game up to snuff.

After 5K hands I was running great. 24% VPIP/9% pre flop raise/16 BB (Big Bets)per 100 hands.

Now at 10K. VPIP 26%/9% pre flop raise/5BB per 100 hands.

I know I have been on a bit of a downswing, and I think the 6 max play has hurt me, because I play to many hands...which I am working on fixing. Where should my Ptracker stats be? Im thinking maybe 8-10 BB per 100 hands? Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

[vanHelsing]

Please specify: BB(big blind) or PTBB(Pokertracker big bet=2xBB).

[emil3000]

I don't think you necessarily play too many hands.

[punter11235]

8-10PTBB is not so hard at 200NL (6max or fullring or whatever) but its quite difficult to do at 400NL in my humble opinion. Maybe I am just a fish but I think these two levels have large skill diffrence. (I for example have godlike winrate at 200NL but Iam struggling with 400NL (sth like 4.5PTBB/100 after 20k hands).
24% VPIP is ok. I am a bit tighter but there are many winning players who are looser so it should not be your main problem. Be sure to play only the best hand in first two seats (6max) and loose it up in CO and button, you should be ok.

[pdparv]

Looking at some of my big hand losses. I seem to get in trouble with bottom or middle set. This week alone, I have lost 6 huge hands with set over set. I guess that is a sign I should be much more cautious playing medium/low pocket pairs. I find once I spike the set, especially in a 6Max game, unless there is a quite obvious straight, or flush out there I cannot lay it down. I question myself so much, that i think i have laid down a set or two lately when I probably did have the best hand. Obviously am dealing with a confidence issuse currently as well.

If you think 4.5-6 BB is pretty normal at 400NL I feel a bit better. I think it was just tough when I had such a great start over my first 5-6K hands. The whole variance/averaging out thing has really cooled me off.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at some of my big hand losses. I seem to get in trouble with bottom or middle set. This week alone, I have lost 6 huge hands with set over set.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not bad play, this is absurdly bad luck.

Please trust me on this. Set-over-set 6 times in 10k hands is ridiculous. If you lost to flushes on 4-flush boards, that might be a leak, but don't lose sleep over set-over-set. You probably won't see 6 set-over-sets in your next 50k hands.

edit: see them at multiple tables? maybe.. have it happen to you yourself? nah.

[XChamp]

5PTBB/100 is good regardless of what anyone tells you. It is FAR above average. If you play 3+ tables at a time it is excellent. The average winrate of NL$200 players in my database is -3.8PTBB/100. I think that puts things in perspective.

When people make posts about "how they do at NL$200" and don't include how many tables they play at a time, number of hands they have played and how often they play, it means nothing.

Someone could easily 1 Table NL$200 ONLY when a massive fish is playing and make 15 PTBB/100 over 100k hands or more. The problem is they could only get in a about one hundred hands a day max if they are constantly looking for tables. They would end up making much less per hour than the guy who 3-4tables and gets in 10k hands a week at 5PTBB/100. But hey, they can brag to their friends and to the 2+2 community about how good they are then, right?

As is, I have played NL$200 for 47.5K hands the past 2 months and am making 6.8PTBB/100. My multi-table ratio is 2.87 . I, of course, still have leaks that I am always trying to fix. I lose concentration all the time when I start chatting with someone on IM. I rate my table selection as very good. I still live in fear that I am running well. Maybe at 100k hands I'll start thinking I can keep this up. Right now a big win or loss for one session still significantly changes my winrate. I don't like that.

My stats are very similar to yours. I raise slightly more (+~1%). 100bb NL is not a preflop game though. It is very hard to use PT to find NL leaks.

[-Skeme-]

I've never ran well enough to have more than 8PTBB/100 over 5,000 hands.

[pdparv]

All these replies have been very helpful. Thanks so much. I knew my intial win rate was much higher, and would level out. I felt unstoppable. I hit sets whenever I was up against AA or KK, and I avoided them when I had AA or KK. The dip back to reality was tough as you can imagine. When you are at 16 PTBB/100 over a 5k hands, and the over the next 5K hands you dip to about 5 PTBB/100 you can imagine it was not a pretty run. I feel good that if i get a good number of hands in I can continue to make sme good $$.

I will post again when I hit 20K hands....

[Riposte]

Well this is good news, at least for me. I've lost my stack to 3 set over sets in the past 2k hands.