AQs in 6-max, missed flop

ChuckyB · #1 09-29-2005, 02:57 AM

In the brief look I've had at him, SB doesn't bet out at much. I believe he has the K here.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

I don't have the pot odds on the flop to call this bet. I think my implied odds are too good to fold right here.

Is it a leak that I would almost never fold this flop (with the players at .50/1.00)? I might think about it if all three were suited.

thesharpie · #2 09-29-2005, 03:16 AM

At first glance I thought the flop peel was icky, but looking closer it's not that bad, we have ~5 outs and surely will get the 1BB implied we need. There's a chance our Q outs are good, or we even have the best hand, so I think I like it.

If you didn't have the backdoor draw it would swing it to an easy fold against this guy IMO.

trainslayer · #3 09-29-2005, 03:27 AM

I was thinkin we could squooze out ~7.5 outs, 3 aces, bdfd and 2 bdsd (A hi and the wheel). But even then I think it's iffy. (Course I usually play it the same.)

thesharpie · #4 09-29-2005, 03:30 AM

Ah missed the good ol' wheel. I definitely peel now.

ChuckyB · #5 09-29-2005, 05:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I was thinkin we could squooze out ~7.5 outs, 3 aces, bdfd and 2 bdsd (A hi and the wheel). But even then I think it's iffy. (Course I usually play it the same.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, because what if my read is off and he's betting middle pair? That adds another 1.5-3 outs for the queen (depending on who you ask). If there's a 50% chance he's betting out with middle pair (which I will often do heads-up)...we've got 8 to almost 10 outs.

For a small bet it seems to me to be worth it. Because man are they pissed when you win.

MATT111 · #6 09-29-2005, 06:19 AM

Flop call is very very thin even without a read. According to your read you HAVE to fold here. Your implied odds are not very huge HU.

#7 09-29-2005, 06:41 AM

*gruncher*

I think you played that just fine.

I put you on around 8 outs on the flop, add in implied odds and you easily have the odds to see the turn IMO.

MATT111 · #8 09-29-2005, 06:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was thinkin we could squooze out ~7.5 outs, 3 aces, bdfd and 2 bdsd (A hi and the wheel). But even then I think it's iffy. (Course I usually play it the same.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, because what if my read is off and he's betting middle pair? That adds another 1.5-3 outs for the queen (depending on who you ask). If there's a 50% chance he's betting out with middle pair (which I will often do heads-up)...we've got 8 to almost 10 outs.

For a small bet it seems to me to be worth it. Because man are they pissed when you win.

[/ QUOTE ]
BD FD: 1.5 outs
wheel: 0.5 outs
A: 3 outs at best
A q clearly causes trouble. You will call down if one flops and he keeps betting, right? Bet if he doesnt?!
So you may be paying him off if behind and he may fold if you are ahead. That sounds pretty bad to me.

The pot is small - you have to fold.

Edit: Furthermore I think it is better to raise than just call this flop as it puts pressure on your opponent to define his hand and gives you the chance to take a free card on the turn. (Fold>raise >call imo)

#9 09-29-2005, 06:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was thinkin we could squooze out ~7.5 outs, 3 aces, bdfd and 2 bdsd (A hi and the wheel). But even then I think it's iffy. (Course I usually play it the same.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, because what if my read is off and he's betting middle pair? That adds another 1.5-3 outs for the queen (depending on who you ask). If there's a 50% chance he's betting out with middle pair (which I will often do heads-up)...we've got 8 to almost 10 outs.

For a small bet it seems to me to be worth it. Because man are they pissed when you win.

[/ QUOTE ]
BD FD: 1.5 outs
wheel: 0.5 outs
A: 3 outs at best
A q clearly causes trouble. You will call down if one flops and he keeps betting, right? Bet if he doesnt?!
So you may be paying him off if behind and he may fold if you are ahead. That sounds pretty bad to me.

The pot is small - you have to fold.

Edit: Furthermore I think it is better to raise than just call this flop as it puts pressure on your opponent to define his hand and gives you the chance to take a free card on the turn. (Fold>raise >call imo)

[/ QUOTE ]

*gruncher*

So should we discount queen outs in a case like this ? or treat them as 0.5 outs each ??

Also you left out the BD SD [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

#10 09-29-2005, 06:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was thinkin we could squooze out ~7.5 outs, 3 aces, bdfd and 2 bdsd (A hi and the wheel). But even then I think it's iffy. (Course I usually play it the same.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, because what if my read is off and he's betting middle pair? That adds another 1.5-3 outs for the queen (depending on who you ask). If there's a 50% chance he's betting out with middle pair (which I will often do heads-up)...we've got 8 to almost 10 outs.

For a small bet it seems to me to be worth it. Because man are they pissed when you win.

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you get 10 outs if you don't mind me asking ?

I've found 8.5 max.