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#2
09-30-2005, 12:43 PM
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Re: How often do +15 OOTM streaks happen?
well, if u are a 40% itm player, then .6^15=.00047, so .047%or 1/2000
but there are other factors like tilt, etc... 
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#5
09-30-2005, 01:08 PM
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Re: How often do +15 OOTM streaks happen?
[ QUOTE ]
I know it's random, but... [/ QUOTE ] Not to nitpick, but but misuse of the word random really bugs me. This certainly isn't random. Results from previous SNGs are very likely to affect your play in later SNGs. If your play were "constant", then it would be random, but I doubt your play will be constant. An example is if you start a losing by doing nothing wrong (random) and notice that you have just gone 8 OOTM. You start thinking that this is the start of a loosing streak and begin playing weak-tight and not making bubble pushes that you'd ordinarily make. Now it ceases to be random as you are changing your play and increasing your odds of subsequent OOTMs. If you could play the same regardless of your bankroll, your current streak, the fight you had with your GF, the dickhead at the table that you want to spite-call, etc, then it would be random and you could precisely work it out with the math the others have shown you.
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#6
09-30-2005, 01:14 PM
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Re: How often do +15 OOTM streaks happen?
[ QUOTE ]
well, if u are a 40% itm player, then .6^15=.00047, so .047%or 1/2000 but there are other factors like tilt, etc... [/ QUOTE ] This doesn't really answer the question anyway. In fact, there is no precise formula to answer the OPs question. You have to assume a certain ITM and run an enormous simulation (millions of trials), then find how often these streaks occur. From similar problems I've seen in the past, it will happen much more often than most people's intuition would say.
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#7
09-30-2005, 01:19 PM
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Re: How often do +15 OOTM streaks happen?
LOL I've gone 8 in a row OOTM dozens of times. I don't change my play a bit. So please don't generalize.
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#8
09-30-2005, 01:48 PM
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Re: How often do +15 OOTM streaks happen?
[ QUOTE ]
LOL I've gone 8 in a row OOTM dozens of times. I don't change my play a bit. So please don't generalize. [/ QUOTE ] Well, I'm referring to most people, not all people. I'm sure that there are even lots of people who believe their play doesn't change during an OOTM streak, when in fact it does (I'm not implying this is you). Anyway, my post was directed at the OP. Someone who asks a question like he did is much more likely to change his style of play than a veteran SNG player during an OOTM thus prolonging the streak. Besides, the point of my post wasn't about people changing their play, it was about the misuse of the word random which bugs me more than nails on a chalkboard.
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#9
09-30-2005, 01:57 PM
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Re: How often do +15 OOTM streaks happen?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] well, if u are a 40% itm player, then .6^15=.00047, so .047%or 1/2000 but there are other factors like tilt, etc... [/ QUOTE ] This doesn't really answer the question anyway. In fact, there is no precise formula to answer the OPs question. You have to assume a certain ITM and run an enormous simulation (millions of trials), then find how often these streaks occur. From similar problems I've seen in the past, it will happen much more often than most people's intuition would say. [/ QUOTE ] no, there is a precise formula, which is P(X)^n now, u can argue that tilt, etc may change this value...but if u truly have 60% probability of finishing ootm in any given game, then .6^15 is correct in practice, u are prolly more than 60% likely to finish ootm in the tourney following losing 13 in a row...but theoretically, it's .6^15
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#10
09-30-2005, 01:58 PM
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Re: How often do +15 OOTM streaks happen?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] well, if u are a 40% itm player, then .6^15=.00047, so .047%or 1/2000 but there are other factors like tilt, etc... [/ QUOTE ] This doesn't really answer the question anyway. [/ QUOTE ] Really? I thought it did (in a purely statistical sense anyway), except for being (1-ITM)^(N-1) because the streak is 14 OOTM after any given OOTM.
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