River Bluff

[sapster]

Haven't been at table too long, villain hasn't showed any signs of donkishness, anyone like this or is this a spew? I called on turn hoping for a 5 or a spade when he makes such a small bet. 400 effective stacks.

Dealt to FirstToFelt [ Jd 8d ]
senordiego folds.
FirstToFelt raises [$12].
RecognizeB folds.
Mitchy_D folds.
Pkt99 calls [$10].
nuttyturtle calls [$8].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, 7s, 4s ]
Pkt99 bets [$15].
nuttyturtle folds.
>You have options at Table 54661 (6 max) (No DP) Table!.
FirstToFelt raises [$60].
Pkt99 calls [$45].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6c ]
Pkt99 bets [$20].
FirstToFelt calls [$20].
** Dealing River ** [ 2s ]
>You have options at Table 64005 (6 max) Table!.
Pkt99 bets [$80].
FirstToFelt raises [$250].

[edge]

I like this move in general, but in this particular hand it looks quite likely that Villain is on the flush draw and your river move won't work.

[AnyutaDva]

His bet on the turn looks for all the world like a stopper bet, simply trying to stop you from puttin in a proper bet and allowing him to see the turn cheaply with his flush draw. I would be tempted to make a pot sized raise on the turn, and I don't like bluffing the river when the flush hits as I think he's likely to show you the hand you are trying to represent.

[sapster]

Noone thinks he will fold a flush draw out of position to pot r/r on paired board? His turn bet smelled either weak or full boat, if he potted river I'd give up.

[AnyutaDva]

I doubt I'd be inclined to give up a flush draw to your flop raise, especially if I had either a straight draw, or an Ace as a probable over card to give me extra outs. When you raise the flop I don't think he is putting you on a full house or trips, more likely an overpair, I guess most people are more likely to raise with 88 here than 77, so I think it is a far from automatic fold with a flush draw.

The more I look at the hand, the more convinced I am that he has a hand, you may be correct that it is a full house rather than the flush, but he has led into you on the flop, turn and river, if you are looking to bluff weakness this may not be the most obvious spot. The one hand you can legitimately get rid of on the river is if he has something like 4-5 and has flopped trips and then when the flush comes on the river he has gone into bet-fold mode, but if he has that then the size of his turn bet sucks.

[sapster]

I agree that in general my plan seems too optimistic here, just kind of went by feel in this one thinking his river bet was the last money he'd be willing to put in. My read was wrong that he was good enough to fold worse than a boat or big flush here, lesson learned don't bluff bad players. Was playing 2 bigger games along with this table and probably assumed too many braincells in opponent.

Screwed up on the turn by not raising it as you did the flop. The raise here makes no sense unless the river made your boat.