How a newbie played his hand, for your perusal

Hold'em Limit ($1/$2)

Hero is UTG+1 with $110.50 in chips
BB has $57.25 in chips

Blinds are posted.

----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Hero [8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]

UTG folds, Hero raises $2, everyone folds to the BB who calls $1

----- FLOP ----- [7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
BB: checks, Hero: ...

No specific reads on the only player who called my preflop raise, other than he seems to be a solid player, but in the few hours I have been at the table, I haven't gotten to see a hand against him, that I can remember, and have been multitabling so I haven't seen any large number of showdowns with him. If I saw any of his hole cards, I don't remember them, so I give him credit, for now, for being a solid player. I do know that the entire table is pretty tight. Often the whole table will fold to an UTG raise, and sometimes even to MP raises if there have been no limpers to that point. As a matter of fact, there has been a fair bit of blind stealing even by the button and SB. That was the main reason for my raise in the first place, although I acknowledge it may seem pretty loose, but it if you look at it as an attempted blind steal, it isn't that bad, is it?

I am pretty sure that, at this table, just about anyone who calls a PF raise from a very EP raiser is calling/raising with worthy holdings, which, in my opinion, makes even a semi-risky UTG raise worth trying with a reasonable hand, since you will probably know where you are at this table if you get called or re-raised.

I will give you more of my perspective in the next post. Trying to keep this one short. Please feel free to respond before reading the next post.

P.S. The PF raise was situational. I usually fold this kind of hand in very early position, because I believe that raising with it is (generally) long term -EV. Am I right?

[scotty34]

ummm bet

I am, first of all, not going to apologize for the length of this. I am giving you what went through my mind at the time, and there is no short and sweet way to do that. I am also including my own post analysis, and retrospective. Maybe it will help improve my play, maybe it will help someone else's play. I can hope it at least does the former. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Before I raised PF, I considered how out of line it may be, but it was a calculated risk. It appeared to me that most people were just blind stealing from late position. I may have been wrong, however, as most of the table was folding to an EP raiser, so perhaps some other players also clued in and were blind stealing from EP as well, I never got the chance to prove it either way.

I had been getting good cards, and people had been folding to my raises from various positions, through various situations, and when they weren't, they were often losing to me on the showdown, seeing my hand selection, and, of course, never seeing me play rags out of position. Either that, or they were winning the hands never knowing what I mucked.

For anyone who was paying attention, I am sure they would have gotten a pretty distinct impression about me. Granted, most people don't pay that much attention, but I would rather give someone credit for being observant until I notice otherwise, mostly because I know what an observant player can glean from a table, and what the non-observant player can get stuck with against that observant player. I sat down at the table with $80 and was up to $110, and I got the impression that some players had noticed. Maybe it was my imagination but I was pretty sure that some were smart enough to notice. I had notes on a few of them but not on the guy who got involved in the hand (doh!). Still, I had been winning enough hands that, unless he was multitabling like me, and not paying enough attention (doh!), he had to know that I was capable of more than just straightforward poker. There had been a couple of loose players who I managed to get lucky against when I had good holdings to beat their rags, and they started backing off when I got involved in the hands after that. At least, that was my take on it.

If I were afraid that half a dozen people would 4 bet after me, I would have folded this rather than raised with it, but, as you saw, everyone except the BB folded, so I was right to raise here. Whether or not I was justified is another question!

The new question then becomes, what is he calling an EP raise with, out of position...

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
The new question then becomes, what is he calling an EP raise with, out of position...

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't concern me much yet because these games are notorious for people calling raises when they shouldn't. BB could have absolute crap here.

And Scotty's right IMO; with your momentum a flop bet is a necessary based on fold-equity and for metagame considerations. Even these guys can realize if you only bet with good hands.

[Russ McGinley]

[ QUOTE ]
The new question then becomes, what is he calling an EP raise with, out of position...

[/ QUOTE ]

Two cards. This is an autobet. What information on THIS HAND do you have that the BB has a hand that currently beat yours?

[ QUOTE ]
ummm bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I am a simpleton, but is it really that simple?

Bet is a great answer, thanks - but

ummm why?

[fundmyhabit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ummm bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I am a simpleton, but is it really that simple?

Bet is a great answer, thanks - but

ummm why?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't bet out on this flop then what exactly are you waiting for? The guy you raised is in the same position and has no idea what you have. If you check to the turn and he bets out then you definitely will not know where you're at.

You can't just raise preflop, miss your ace and check it down.

Well you can, but then you'd be missing out on a lot of pots.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ummm bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I am a simpleton, but is it really that simple?

Bet is a great answer, thanks - but

ummm why?

[/ QUOTE ]

You were the pre-flop aggressor, and he more than likely has junk. Fold equity is figuring that, more often than not, your opponent will fold here, when he checks and you bet.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ummm bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I am a simpleton, but is it really that simple?

Bet is a great answer, thanks - but

ummm why?

[/ QUOTE ]

You were the pre-flop aggressor, and he more than likely has junk. Fold equity is figuring that, more often than not, your opponent will fold here, when he checks and you bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also an important consideration here is that there's a not insignificant chance that we're value-betting the best hand.

I had typed this in before there were any replies in the thread but had not posted in the original post to help keep it uncluttered (since I realize I make my posts too long).

From the PF selection guides I have read, they all suggest folding this hand (A8s) preflop in early position, and I understand why. I am likely dominated if anyone calls, but I had so much fold equity and I knew that if anyone raised me, I could re-evaluate on the flop.

Since it was only the BB who called, and I had position on him, I thought about betting when he checked that flop to me - I was pretty sure he would fold, but then again, why did he call a preflop raise from UTG... what is he holding?

Time for people to tell me I am overthinking this stuff? I am not terrified of monsters under the bed, but is there not a time to be cautious? Because I haven't been watching the guy, I don't know if he is slow playing a K, but I guess, in hindsight, the worst that could happen is he re-raises me one small bet and I call to see the turn, which, if it improves my hand, gives me a reason to stay in to the river, and if not, I re-evaluate based on odds and whether or not he leads into me with a bet.

At the time, I considered that I might have the best hand because he likely would have bet if he had a King, and he could fold to my raise here. Looking at the last paragraph, in hindsight, the fold equity I had was high enough that it called for a bet.

I did _think_ about making a bet in that spot...

Anyway, here we are, back at the theory of when it is right to semi-bluff... (or bet what might be the best hand at the moment, and has a chance at becoming the best hand) but I wasn't sure, and again, when I am not sure, I would rather err on the side of caution than put a bunch more money in the pot? That may be -EV long term, but I plan on gaining knowledge to make up for that and get to the point where I AM sure and don't have to make bad folds just because I am not sure if I am ahead (or bet when I should and not bet when I shouldn't, etc)

Sklansky talks about semi-bluffing less often in late position, and taking a free card. I guess he meant more against several players, since when you have more than one opponent, it makes it more likely that at least one will call and that lowers your fold equity...

Anyway, at the time, I was thinking about the technical aspects of fold equity and semi-bluffing as I just read in the book, rather than considering the real world application that I have been doing, and that it would only cost me one small bet to find out if this guy would lay down his hand now, or if I could force him out on the turn with a follow up bet.