3/6 6m JJ flop decision

[jason_t]

Disagreement in IRC on how to play this one.

UTG is 64.3/11.39/1.09, the Button is unknown and the BB is 45.4/19.23/1.56. I wish I had a read on UTG's postflop play but the BB is a little on the loose side postflop.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I 3-bet</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, I call, Button calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, I

[thirddan]

thirddan: this seems like one of those rare times when the pot is really too big to protect your hand at the moment
thirddan: call and raise the turn
jason: ja it's really close decision imo
jason: he might not bet the turn again
jason: and if he does it might mean i'm behind
thirddan: it doesn't necessarily mean you are behind though, someone with those stats could bet AK/AQ unimproved on the turn, especially since you didnt raise the flop, which he will think is standard for someone with an overpair
thirddan: plus, you have a gutshot
thirddan: also, you could consider raising the turn for a free showdown unless you improve
thirddan: and if he doesn't bet the turn, even though you still cant protect your hand you will at least have a much better idea of where you are and can bet for value

[spydog]

I raise this on the flop. If you don't raise this then the button (or BB) might and then you'll be in the dark for the rest of the hand, especially if UTG 3-bets.

So, I raise because:

1) I might get BB and/or Button to fold, which is good if they have overcard outs against me.
2) I can see how the other react to my raise, which might allow me to make a better decision on one of the more expensive streets.
3) I can't be guaranteed UTG will bet a worse hand on the turn. If I had AA in this spot, then I would probably wait until the turn.
4) I should have plenty of equity with my overpair + gutshot. Since I have 2 Jacks this almost plays like a nut straight draw.

[wheelz]

i'm with spydog

[ArturiusX]

Raise because you probably have the best hand, and if you don't you have some outs. Screw protecting, you want bets.

[purnell]

I think raising the flop is better, mainly to try to get button and bb to fold. If you smooth call they have an easy call with as little as a back-door draw, but if you raise, even if they are still correct to chase, you have made it harder for them.

Plus, if you are behind a bigger overpair, it would be better to find out on the cheap street than later on.

[oreogod]

ah first off...more than a decent percentage of the time (ie: alot of the time)...no one is folding this if u raise. Also...Id rather call and raise the turn w/ JJ than AA. In your post u pretty advocated waiting for the turn to pop this board w/ AA and I think calling this flop w/ the intention of raising the turn w/ AA is horrible. Its a much better move w/ JJ and TT BY FAR.

We discussed this on IRC and wating for the turn is better imo. Granted it cant be known if he bets the turn again w/ callers...but hes 64/10/1.1 which is pretty loose and pretty agressive...I dont think a guy like that cares much. I do the same thing w/ TT.

[oreogod]

I also dont think raising this flop gives u any more info on where u are at. You could be getting 3bet by a lot of hands...and depending on what kind of player u are...and who is doing the raising, the action could get u to lay down what could be the best hand (on the turn).

Again, depends on reads, how well of a player u are..etc. I think u get 3bet light (draws, pair+draw) and by strong hands alike.

I dont know, Im tired...so whatever, thats whats going through my head thus far.

EDIT: Raising may not be that bad on the flop w/ your BD and gutshots . I will take a look at this in the morning.

EDIT of an EDIT: Ppl love to toss around the equity word...hey we have BD, Gutshot...we must have a ton of equity. Right? No...not so much here really. Doing a bunch of simulations w/ range of hands etc. Whats funny is when the simulations all start it looks like u might have a decent amount equity...but as it continues to crunch numbers your "equity" keeps sinking. I mean...you are not really against random hands here. Maybe for one...but u have a Button who called 3 cold and a BB who CC 2 bets (Id say hes more random suited than anything if u want to go the random route)...so u actually dont have equity on the flop against hand ranges and Im trying a ton of different hand ranges here...if u have equity on this flop u dont average much, even w/ your extra outs. Intresting stuff.

[Poldi]

I think its wrong to say that a raise cant protect your hand and they can call with any 2.
1. Considering the preflop action they have to fear an overpair and might need to hit twice to win, thus their overcards are discounted. They probably dont think like that but they are scared, I see folds for 1 bet on the flop in pots like this..
2. They might have the odds to call a raise but its not unlikely at all that UTG will 3bet (you might even cap so they could have to pay 4 bets to see the turn) and they see this. Thats the main reason why you might get them to fold.

I think its all about your read on the players. If you think a flop raise can drive them out, go for it. If they are so loose that they will call anything here, wait for a safe turn card to raise.
I think its pretty close. The gutshot also tips it more towards raising now since it gives us additional equity, this advantage will be smaller with only 1 card to come and if it hits we made additional bets.

[Jeff W]

I raise the flop. The pot is too big to protect your hand even if you wait until the turn to raise. Also, you can't gaurantee that AK,AQ, etc will bet the turn.

If UTG has a better hand, it's better to raise the flop instead of a 5,4,3,2 turn because we save a BB when he 3-bets the flop instead of the turn and we're getting better odds on our money(It's like putting .73 bets in every time you bet or raise instead of .85 bets on the turn).