check or bet or doeas it matter?

PokerBob · #1 09-20-2005, 06:26 PM

villain here is one of my favorite fishies. 63/4/1.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero........

DCWGaming · #2 09-20-2005, 06:27 PM

I bet this every time.

marsvolta619 · #3 09-20-2005, 06:28 PM

Bet to the checker

Altaslim · #4 09-20-2005, 06:32 PM

...fires another bullet.

Subfallen · #5 09-20-2005, 06:33 PM

A vote for check...no particularly reason to think he doesn't have a pair.

marsvolta619 · #6 09-20-2005, 06:38 PM

Even if he does have a pair, betting out is far better in this spot. Assuming he doesn't have the flush on the turn, any king will give you the nuts, as will any diamond. Stretching an ace for a 1/2 out, I'm counting 13.5

hobbsmann · #7 09-20-2005, 06:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he does have a pair, betting out is far better in this spot. Assuming he doesn't have the flush on the turn, any king will give you the nuts, as will any diamond. Stretching an ace for a 1/2 out, I'm counting 13.5

[/ QUOTE ]

But given the read on this guy he is not going to be folding anything resembling a hand and so even with all of your outs you are still a dog in the hand if he has a pair. FWIW, I check here.

Subfallen · #8 09-20-2005, 06:43 PM

This isn't Omaha, you're behind to a pair of dueces.

DCWGaming · #9 09-20-2005, 06:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he does have a pair, betting out is far better in this spot. Assuming he doesn't have the flush on the turn, any king will give you the nuts, as will any diamond. Stretching an ace for a 1/2 out, I'm counting 13.5

[/ QUOTE ]

Dont forget about the 8 for the lower end of the straight

3 more

Lmn55d · #10 09-20-2005, 09:13 PM

Hey Bob. There's a couple of things to think about there.

1) Probability that your hand is still best. A player with these stats will usually peel with a ton of hands, so I think there's a pretty good chance your hand is still best.

2) Probability of being checkraised. If you have no fear of being checkraised, you should bet and take the free showdown. If you think there is a strong chance of being checkraised, you should be more inclined to check.

3) Probability of him bluffing the river. If it's someone who is fairly prone to betting the river as a bluff, a check is better. Unless he often calls turn and donks river as a bluff, then you might as well bet if you don't fear a turn checkraise.

4) Number of outs he has if behind. Since you have the nut flush draw and straight draw he can't have very many outs. A5 has 2 outs. Jx has 6 outs to only a split. K5 has 2 outs. Keep in mind that a lot of hands he could have are drawing basically dead.

5) Value from a worse hand calling. There's a good chance he'll call with a weak diamond draw or straight draw, drawing slim. This is an argument for betting, but if he's prone to bluff the river, you probably make more by letting him do this.

So all we have is this guy's stats. He seems passive preflop and moderately aggressive postflop. For this reason I think a turn check is probably correct. He has few outs if behind so you make a lot more from inducing a river bluff. Also, you don't have to put in 2 bets on the turn when you're behind or risk folding the best hand on the river.