River value bet OOP against aggressive villain?

Aaron W. · #1 09-22-2005, 01:23 AM

Villain is pretty new to the table, but he has already shown some aggressive tendencies. He was caught bluffing into another villain heads up when the other guy checked behind on the turn. He has also bet all three streets when he kept getting checked to (he won the hand).

We can debate the flop check-raise, too, but I'm mostly interested in your thoughts about the river play.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB folds, Hero raises, Button calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero...

Redd · #2 09-22-2005, 01:27 AM

I think given the read, if it goes bet-call or check-bet-call you're making close to a BB either way. Since he seems like he's capable of bluff-raising the river and we don't want to have to fold it or put in 2 bets, I'd check-call to snap off a bluff. I think he'll probably bet more hands than he'll call anyways.

thesharpie · #3 09-22-2005, 01:33 AM

It doesn't look like he's the type to fold AK on the turn when you checkraise the flop, but he does look the type to keep firing with it on the turn and possibly river, he also seems the type who might 3 bet the flop with OCs.

I prefer check-call, check-call, then decide whether to bet or check-call.

I agree with Redd on the river play the way you played, I'd hate to fold to a bluff raise or put 2 bets in, and it seems close either way.

trainslayer · #4 09-22-2005, 05:35 AM

I'd bet here. If he's been aggressive at all and he's got you beat I don't see anyway he's not raising the flop or at least the turn. I don't want to miss a bet here when he checks behind. If he raises I kick the cat and call.

POKhER · #5 09-22-2005, 06:26 AM

*GRUNCH*
Check/Call
Or
Bet/fold(I dont like this, but its possible).

Why check call?
Induce a bluff (You say he bets when checked to),
I doubt he'll fold a queen for one bet.

--------------------

We're behind any PP(8+), Behind a Queen, and any 8, Slow played flush.

I'd say we're often behind, and a tag would probably raise AQ/KQ and then call down to a 3bet(although i'd expect a raise somewhere-MAYBE RIVER).

Nick Royale · #6 09-22-2005, 06:50 AM

I think the previous posters have put too much emphasis on a vague read:
[ QUOTE ]
Villain is pretty new to the table

[/ QUOTE ]
The only read we have on him is that he one time tried to bluff the turn in a pot where I assume he had position and not have been shown the same aggression as we do by check/raising the flop. The other hand we have on him is that he once betted every street and won a pot without showing his hand. He could easily been doing this with top pair, 2-pair or whatever legitimate hand that was possible, we all play a hand like that with tons of hands. My point is that this read tells us close to nothing.

I'm almost considering myself readless and bet this river. It's a very shorthanded table and I think we'll get calls from A-high hands and lower PP's often at 1/2. I'll call a raise because the pot is big and villain might believe the 8 scared us (even though it really didn't) and it will snap of a bluff. A call also have some value from getting to see his hand, but I don't think we'll get raised very often on this river and we'll not often have to make this crying call call frequently. I have to agree it might be slightly -EV, but it's probably close. To me it really doesn't matter since the bet have significally higher value than a check. We can't expect the opponent to bluff the river (or valuebet a worse hand) given the way we've played the hand and the vague read we have.

Villain in this hand will call with far more hand than he bets on the river. The only value a check might have is the fact we might have scared him so he won't valuebet JJ-99 (some players won't valuebet Q's also, but we can't count on that) and the fact that we won't have to call a raise.

Bet/call.

POKhER · #7 09-22-2005, 07:06 AM

We beat:
AKo/AKs

We lose to:AQo/AQs/KQs/KQo/Qx/8x/99/TT/jj/QQ/KK/AA
Although lots of them(AQ/KQ/AA/KK/QQ etc) would 3bet the flop!

I'd say were so far behind that bet/call, check/call are pretty dam close.

I'm not sure if the check/call attracts bluffers often enough to profit.
I'm not sure if the bet/call wins a extra bet to weaker hands often enough to make up for when we're raised.

Bet/Fold is crap due to pot size? Although what 3bets us that we beat? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Nick Royale · #8 09-22-2005, 07:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
We beat:
AKo/AKs

We lose to:AQo/AQs/KQs/KQo/Qx/8x/99/TT/jj/QQ/KK/AA

[/ QUOTE ]
If you count 8x as a possible hand, then we're ahead to much more hands than AKo/AKs.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say were so far behind that bet/call, check/call are pretty dam close.

[/ QUOTE ]
The hand range don't say much about what line to take, it's more depending on our opponent, but we don't have much of a read. A hand range could tell us to check/fold though, but in this case that's not an option.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if the check/call attracts bluffers often enough to profit.

[/ QUOTE ]
A check/call on the river is +EV, but a bet/fold definately more +EV IMO, since I don't believe we'll induce a bluff here very often.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if the bet/call wins a extra bet to weaker hands often enough to make up for when we're raised.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm a believer...

tiltaholic · #9 09-22-2005, 08:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is pretty new to the table, but he has already shown some aggressive tendencies. He was caught bluffing into another villain heads up when the other guy checked behind on the turn. He has also bet all three streets when he kept getting checked to (he won the hand).

We can debate the flop check-raise, too, but I'm mostly interested in your thoughts about the river play.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB folds, Hero raises, Button calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

i think people are forgetting the preflop action, in which button 3-bet.

assuming that the read is an aggressive player, he definitely bets when checked to on this river given his range of holdings. though it is hard to say for sure (ie, maybe he's tricky and is planning to raise the river with AA), i think you are looking at a scared 99-JJ or AK, maybe AJs.

if i thought he might fold, i bet/fold the river. otherwise i don't think he's checking this through and i'll probably feel compelled to call a river bet b/c of the size of the pot.

i really suck at river play -- when the question is "inducing a bluff by checking" as opposed to "bet/folding" or traditionally value betting....

Nick Royale · #10 09-22-2005, 10:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
if i thought he might fold, i bet/fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think that's a reason to bet, since he won't fold a better hand IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
assuming that the read is an aggressive player, he definitely bets when checked to on this river given his range of holdings. though it is hard to say for sure (ie, maybe he's tricky and is planning to raise the river with AA), i think you are looking at a scared 99-JJ or AK, maybe AJs.

[/ QUOTE ]
In a 4 handed game I think this range is too narrow.